ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[supercane4867]

My bet on landfall intensity is 130kt after recon sampled all quadrants. Very unlikely that it will be the same intensity as Eta at landfall.

[chaser1]

Yes the flight earlier today that eventually measured a cat 5 winds hit a bird during take-off so they had to switch planes. That's why that mission was delayed by ~1 hour.

I was wondering why there were 2 mission 6s listed on tropical tidbits. I thought they just got the flight number wrong or something

I heard that too about the birdstrike....friend of mine told me...

What a crazy plot-line for a less then believable low budget movie. "......Raven practically takes out mid-November Recon flight enroute to Cat 5 Hail-icane...". The crazy bad luck for those directly impacted by a November Cat 5 hurricane, 2 weeks after getting nailed by a November Cat 4 hurricane is hard to fathom

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If I had to call it, I'd say Iota is a 130 knot Cat 4 right now at most.

[tolakram]

I was still thinking probably a 120 kt/140 mph Cat 4.

Nah it won't be that low. Not with a 919 mb pressure

Katrina made landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 at 920.

I would add that a cat 5 completing an ERC might be a more dangerous storm since prior to ERC the cat 5 windfield is pretty small. I wide swath of lower category winds is very dangerous, but unfortunately many jus tpay attention to the number. A very deadly storm regardless.

[wx98]

Nah it won't be that low. Not with a 919 mb pressure

Katrina made landfall as a 125 mph Cat 3 at 920.

I would add that a cat 5 completing an ERC might be a more dangerous storm since prior to ERC the cat 5 windfield is pretty small. I wide swath of lower category winds is very dangerous, but unfortunately many jus tpay attention to the number. A very deadly storm regardless.

The windfield has been growing throughout the day, which may make sense as to why we have lower winds with the same pressure. Just a brief glimpse at advisories shows the “max extent” of hurricane force winds at 45 miles (35 this morning) and TS winds at 175 miles (150 this morning).

[ncforecaster89]

 https://twitter.com/tbrite89/status/1328490628620177410

[aspen]

Well this is annoying: pressure readings keep going out whenever recon is sampling the core.

[supercane4867]

This is no Katrina. Current structure of Iota is closer to Katrina at her peak than at landfall.

[wx98]

This is no Katrina. Current structure of Iota is closer to Katrina at her peak than at landfall.

I’m very aware, but never say that something can’t/won’t happen when it comes to the atmosphere.

[CrazyC83]

If no other data comes out, I would go with 125 kt for the landfall intensity. The NW and SW quads are ashore and those may not be sampled.

[CrazyC83]

In 2007, Hurricane Dean went from 145 kt with a pressure of 929 to 120 kt with a pressure of 918, because of structural changes. That may be what is happening.

[supercane4867]

If you live on the coastline to the west of Iota's eye, don't expect anything less than a high-end CAT4

[Hypercane_Kyle]

2020 is truly the year of the Greeks.

[aspen]

I think 130 kt is a reasonable intensity estimate. The pressure has remained constant and the maximum winds haven’t been sampled, so they’re likely higher than what recon is finding in the N and S quads.

[NDG]

Its got to be an EWRC

869
URNT12 KNHC 170023
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL312020
A. 17/00:04:10Z
B. 13.56 deg N 083.05 deg W
C. 700 mb 2395 m
D. 920 mb
E. 060 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. E15/18/10
H. 116 kt
I. 212 deg 6 nm 00:02:00Z
J. 307 deg 125 kt
K. 209 deg 10 nm 00:00:30Z
L. 96 kt
M. 019 deg 17 nm 00:09:30Z
N. 102 deg 125 kt
O. 019 deg 16 nm 00:09:00Z
P. 13 C / 3048 m
Q. 15 C / 3047 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 0.75 nm
U. AF305 0831A IOTA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT 019 / 16 NM 00:09:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 019 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[wxman57]

You can clearly see that an ERC has begun in my plot, below. Note the double wind maxima. Peak winds now are likely 120-125 kts. May drop a little as the core deteriorates and expands prior to landfall. Quadrants of peak winds are indicated on the graphic.

[cycloneye]

Same as what happened with Maria that made the ERC just before landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Puerto Cabezas is in big trouble with this ERC. Had it kept a 12 nautical mile core, its landfall may have been in a remote jungle. But not anymore.

[wxman57]

I'll post the new image from the 3rd pass through the eye in the recon thread. Data should be here shortly.

[wxman57]

Graphic posted. Looks like recon would be too close to land if the exited the eye to the SW this pass. They turned around in the eye and headed out the way that they entered, from the NNE-NE. Very distinct double wind maximum in NE quadrant now.