ATL: IOTA - Remnants - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

There are currently three potential tracks once 98L/Iota reaches roughly ~77W: either it continues SW into Costa Rica/southern Nicaragua (Euro, CMC, GFS-Para), goes a little north but is blocked into Nicaragua/Honduras just like Eta (GFS), or it gets north of Honduras before being blocked south (ICON). Despite these varying tracks, they're generally consistent with timing, with all but the CMC showing a landfall sometime a little after 144 hours out, although some are later than others.
https://i.imgur.com/YBWRg3H.png

SSTs are at least 28.5C across 98L/Iota's potential tracks, with the highest SSTs and maximum potential intensities in the SW Caribbean. Assuming these MPIs hold up, they'll be higher than when Eta was in this region, meaning Iota has the potential to become another sub-925 mbar Cat 4/5 -- assuming other aspects (wind shear, outflow channels, atmospheric moisture, core structure) support it. It seems to be that Iota will be 2020's last shot to produce a Category 5 (which is the exact same thing I said about Delta...then Zeta...then Eta).
https://i.imgur.com/MnSbOsi.png

Seems counter-intuitive that MPI could increase as we get deeper into November and another major hurricane has already tracked across the area (upwelling). What is the mechanism by which this has occurred?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Unfortunately, the bar looks high again for this one. Perfect upper-level environment combined with a moist atmosphere, similar to Eta. I could easily see this one becoming a major hurricane before reaching Central America. I pray this is not the case; the same people under the gun would be the ones who already suffered from Eta.

[tomatkins]

Unfortunately, the bar looks high again for this one. Perfect upper-level environment combined with a moist atmosphere, similar to Eta. I could easily see this one becoming a major hurricane before reaching Central America. I pray this is not the case; the same people under the gun would be the ones who already suffered from Eta.

This is like the reverse 2005. 2005 overperformed early with Dennis and Emily. Now its possible this season is overperforming late with Eta and possibly Iota.

[aspen]

There are currently three potential tracks once 98L/Iota reaches roughly ~77W: either it continues SW into Costa Rica/southern Nicaragua (Euro, CMC, GFS-Para), goes a little north but is blocked into Nicaragua/Honduras just like Eta (GFS), or it gets north of Honduras before being blocked south (ICON). Despite these varying tracks, they're generally consistent with timing, with all but the CMC showing a landfall sometime a little after 144 hours out, although some are later than others.
https://i.imgur.com/YBWRg3H.png

SSTs are at least 28.5C across 98L/Iota's potential tracks, with the highest SSTs and maximum potential intensities in the SW Caribbean. Assuming these MPIs hold up, they'll be higher than when Eta was in this region, meaning Iota has the potential to become another sub-925 mbar Cat 4/5 -- assuming other aspects (wind shear, outflow channels, atmospheric moisture, core structure) support it. It seems to be that Iota will be 2020's last shot to produce a Category 5 (which is the exact same thing I said about Delta...then Zeta...then Eta).
https://i.imgur.com/MnSbOsi.png

Seems counter-intuitive that MPI could increase as we get deeper into November and another major hurricane has already tracked across the area (upwelling). What is the mechanism by which this has occurred?

Even if you look on the SST map, there’s barely any upwelling left behind by Eta.

I don’t know the exact mechanism behind this, but MPIs tend to fluctuate up and down. They were around this high when Eta was a few days from forming but eventually lowered a bit. Still, as we move further and further away from peak season, the extent of high MPIs continues to shrink.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive
environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when
the disturbance reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy
rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so.
For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your
local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[underthwx]

2 PM:

A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The wave is expected to move slowly westward into more conducive
environmental conditions over the next several days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend when
the disturbance reaches the central or western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy
rainfall along with possible flash flooding to the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so.
For more detailed information, refer to products issued by your
local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Good afternoon Cycloneye...I see in the 2 pm discussion, that 98L will be affecting your area with heavy rains, what are the conditions like in your area now?...and what types of effects are you expecting?...

[underthwx]

98L seems fairly north in latitude, and is looking vigorous this afternoon..I understand that 98L is tracking generally towards CA at this time..my question is, have the steering patterns changed since ETA tracked through the Carribean, that will keep 98L forced to the south?...

[kevin]

Latest WV loop:

[Iceresistance]

98L seems fairly north in latitude, and is looking vigorous this afternoon..I understand that 98L is tracking generally towards CA at this time..my question is, have the steering patterns changed since ETA tracked through the Carribean, that will keep 98L forced to the south?...

At 700-850 MB, it's north

[underthwx]

98L seems fairly north in latitude, and is looking vigorous this afternoon..I understand that 98L is tracking generally towards CA at this time..my question is, have the steering patterns changed since ETA tracked through the Carribean, that will keep 98L forced to the south?...

At 700-850 MB, it's north

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Thanks for the graphic Ice..by looking at 98L...I was thinking it may be located further north than earlier indicated..I am curious to see how it will track once it attains TD status as predicted....

[Iceresistance]

The convection is really blowing up in the vincity of 98L

[aspen]

Fingers crossed we finally get HWRF runs at 18z or 00z.

[SouthDadeFish]

This storm is likely to be a major problem down the road.... If you catch my drift.

[underthwx]

Looking pretty healthy at this time, and a pretty large disturbance...

[cycloneye]

Here we go. Is almost there.

A tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually
becoming better organized and a tropical depression will likely
form by the weekend as it moves slowly westward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, this system
is expected to bring heavy rainfall along with possible flash
flooding to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of
Hispaniola over the next day or so. For more detailed information,
refer to products issued by your local weather office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Let's see if this one becomes the Cat.5 that we haven't seen this season.

[aspen]

Still waiting on the HWRF run. Given its incredible success predicting storm structure this year, its first run or two should determine whether Iota will have a pinhole, normal-sized, or large core. If it’s predicting another pinhole, then another crazy RIing major is likely.

[underthwx]

So we have low pressure at the upper, and mid levels, but not at the surface at this time?... With most of the deeper convection off to the east?...

[Ryxn]

Let's see if this one becomes the Cat.5 that we haven't seen this season.

Would be the latest Category 5 by far and only CAT 5 that started as a Tropical Depression in November.

Although Lenny of 1999 came super close.

[Iceresistance]

Still waiting on the HWRF run. Given its incredible success predicting storm structure this year, its first run or two should determine whether Iota will have a pinhole, normal-sized, or large core. If it’s predicting another pinhole, then another crazy RIing major is likely.

Pinhole storms are a crazy feature of 2020. (Delta & Eta had pinholes)