ATL: IOTA - Models

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: IOTA - Models

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:03 am

Only model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#2 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:11 am

Is Invest 98L the Carribean system?...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#3 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:13 am

underthwx wrote:Is Invest 98L the Carribean system?...

Yes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#4 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:39 am

12z Intensity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#5 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:49 am

AutoPenalti wrote:12z Intensity
https://i.imgur.com/0CoNWez.png

Hi Auto....how do I post pictures of models like you, and others do?...I don't know how to do it....thanks for any info on how I do it...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#6 Postby kevin » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:05 am

underthwx wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:12z Intensity
https://i.imgur.com/0CoNWez.png

Hi Auto....how do I post pictures of models like you, and others do?...I don't know how to do it....thanks for any info on how I do it...


If you don't want your images to become outdated once the next run arrives, you can upload them online to a website. Most images on this forum, including the one AutoPenalti just sent, were uploaded to imgur and then just added to the post using the img or imgur button.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#7 Postby underthwx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:06 am

kevin wrote:
underthwx wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:12z Intensity
https://i.imgur.com/0CoNWez.png

Hi Auto....how do I post pictures of models like you, and others do?...I don't know how to do it....thanks for any info on how I do it...


If you don't want your images to become outdated once the next run arrives, you can upload them online to a website. Most images on this forum, including the one AutoPenalti just sent, were uploaded to imgur and then just added to the post using the img or imgur button.

Thanks Kevin...I will give it a whirl, and see how it goes...thanks man....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#8 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:25 am

12z GFS is back to showing a hurricane, and a pretty compact one at that. Models seem to be showing development as early as Thursday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#9 Postby kevin » Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:34 am

12z GFS into Nicaragua at 216 hours with a pressure of 971 mbar. Already a TD at 90 hours and sub 1000mb at 120 hours. So in this run it has an approximate life span of 126 hours. Considering the insanely warm waters in the Caribbean atm, I think there's potential for a considerably stronger system than 971 mbar as long as there isn't a lot of shear. HWRF will be an interesting one to look at considering how well it has been doing with its early intensity estimates for previous storms this season so far.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#10 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:39 pm

12Z King: It shows it as Eta part 2 for Central America and this is only 138 hours out! Keep in mind that it is the heavy rainfall, not the winds, that is the biggest danger by far down there. So, even just a slow moving TS could be horrible for them. They're still only in their early recovery phase for Eta! :eek: :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#11 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 10, 2020 1:54 pm

There’s a chance Iota could try to pull up north. That’s what the 12z ICON shows: first a WSW to SW movement for 96-108 hours until it reaches 75-78W, when it pulls up a bit into a NW track and skimming the Central American coast as a C3...and then taking a dive inland by the end of the run (next Tuesday/Wednesday).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#12 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:10 pm

The 12Z Euro then takes 98L SW all the way through Nicaragua and into the E Pac, where it keeps moving SW! I'm guessing this SW movement all the way well out into the Epac is overdone similarly to how much it overdid it with Eta at this forecast stage. But who knows? Regardless, look at how much rainfall it puts out over Central America, especially over Nicaragua (12-24" over a substantial part of the country), far W Honduras/far E Guatemala (8-12" over an area that just had historic flooding from Eta that was in some cases even worse than Mitch), and a large portion of N Honduras (8-12"): :eek: :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#13 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:39 pm

The Euro says that this storm doesn't give one Iota of interest in staying in the Caribbean. Sorry, I couldn't help myself. Bad dad jokes. :) Off to the EPAC we go!!!

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#14 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:41 pm

12Z EPS at 180: :eek: :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#15 Postby kevin » Tue Nov 10, 2020 2:47 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z EPS at 180: :eek: :eek:

https://i.imgur.com/RC7tIp1.png


It's never good news when the EPS is this active considering how conservative the euro has been with storm genesis this year. I'm wondering whether the westward bias the euro had with Eta could once again be at play here. In that case a track into the epac, which is what the euro also insisted would happen with Eta for quite some time, might not be as likely as it currently looks. Either way, it looks like CA might take another heavy hit after being devastated by Eta just one week ago.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#16 Postby LarryWx » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:09 pm

12Z UKMET is stronger this run and now has it down to 990 mb and getting stronger (implying a hurricane) while moving WNW toward Cent America. In comparison to how weak it had Eta at this stage, that's scary: :eek: :eek:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.2N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 108 12.9N 76.6W 1005 32
1200UTC 15.11.2020 120 12.9N 77.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 16.11.2020 132 13.4N 78.7W 998 40
1200UTC 16.11.2020 144 14.2N 80.2W 990 48
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#17 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:27 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z UKMET is stronger this run and now has it down to 990 mb and getting stronger (implying a hurricane) while moving WNW toward Cent America. In comparison to how weak it had Eta at this stage, that's scary: :eek: :eek:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.2N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 108 12.9N 76.6W 1005 32
1200UTC 15.11.2020 120 12.9N 77.6W 1002 37
0000UTC 16.11.2020 132 13.4N 78.7W 998 40
1200UTC 16.11.2020 144 14.2N 80.2W 990 48

I know it's way to early to call Eta 2.0 on this system, bit it looks like that could be a possibility. Hopefully it moves faster so it can't get as strong and won't stall over CA. Bad deal no matter what at this point
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#18 Postby SFLcane » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:30 pm

A stronger storm could tend to come a bit further north similar to Eta.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#19 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:48 pm

SFLcane wrote:A stronger storm could tend to come a bit further north similar to Eta.

Seems like a big reason for the NW turn is due to a little break in the ridge. The ICON shows the first ridge moving to the east in 4 days, giving Iota the opportunity to start turning north. However, another ridge comes in and blocks it. The GFS also shows this small ridge gap but actually has a further south track than the ICON. I believe the exact time of genesis and how strong Iota is on Friday-Saturday will matter in whether or not it’s able to catch any opening that might be present.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:54 pm

Not very many models on 98L right now, but the 6 PM model runs will give us a better hint on how strong this system will be later on.
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