ATL: IOTA - Models

[ElectricStorm]

00z ICON continues the trend of stronger and stronger runs. Iota gets stuck at 80W starting around 126-138 hours out, and as it sits atop high OHC and 29C SSTs, it bombs out to the mid 940s. This is one of the deepest ICON solutions I have ever seen.

Just when we thought Eta was the storm of the season... Could Iota beat it? We'll see, but Eta is going to be tough to beat.

[AutoPenalti]

That ICON run...


wtf?

[aspen]

00z ICON continues the trend of stronger and stronger runs. Iota gets stuck at 80W starting around 126-138 hours out, and as it sits atop high OHC and 29C SSTs, it bombs out to the mid 940s. This is one of the deepest ICON solutions I have ever seen.

Just when we thought Eta was the storm of the season... Could Iota beat it? We'll see, but Eta is going to be tough to beat.

I think it’s entirely possible we could get another CDG ring system out of this if it doesn’t bomb out, since Eta’s T#8.0 appearance was partially due to the cold November tropopause. Another Cat 4 in the same region this time of year could exhibit similarly cold cloud tops.

[ElectricStorm]

Why haven't HWRF and HMON been run yet for 98L? I thought they usually ran once an area is declared an invest...

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like another big-time run from the GFS coming...

[aspen]

Looks like another big-time run from the GFS coming...

Cat 3 into Honduras at 132 hours. The 00z GFS is faster than the 00z ICON, so the “Iota blocking” shoves it into land instead of stalling it over water.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like another big-time run from the GFS coming...

Cat 3 into Honduras at 132 hours. The 00z GFS is faster than the 00z ICON, so the “Iota blocking” shoves it into land instead of stalling it over water.

That is a disaster in terms of flooding on the GFS. Especially after Eta that would be an absolute nightmare if it were to play out.

[Spacecoast]

NRL-COAMPS hits Cat4 in 96 hrs

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF finally running on 98L

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HWRF finally running on 98L

... and it's a monster already by 81 hours.

[skyline385]

HMON going nuts

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF finally running on 98L

... and it's a monster already by 81 hours.

HMON has it at 929mb by 105 hours. A beast on the way!!!


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[AxaltaRacing24]

looks like our chances of getting our 6th major are rapidly increasing.

[skyline385]

HMON down to 923mb

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON down to 923mb

Now down to 916


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[ClarCari]

Notice how both models have this strengthening whilst gaining latitude! Let's see if it blows up even more in the Gulf of Honduras...

[skyline385]

HMON at 910mb, 145 kts

[MarioProtVI]

HMON at 910mb, 145 kts

That would make it the strongest November Atlantic storm of all time, beating out 1932 Cuba at 914-15 mb. That’s alarming

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON down to 923mb

Now down to 916


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123 hours, 910mb...will it go sub 900 by hour 126???


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[ClarCari]

HWRF still gaining latitude far out and the newest NHC "field of uncertainty" in the TWO is reflecting that now.