ATL: IOTA - Models

[kevin]

Euro now has a stronger storm, GFS loses it, HWRF strong and north. What a year for the models. At least the euro is mostly trustworthy at less than 120 hours. Mostly, but not always.

Maybe it's just GFS sticking to this year's tradition of showing a system in the long-range and then dropping it once all the other models are on board (just joking of course).

[AutoPenalti]

Didn’t realize at the end of the run it stalls and pulls North...

[chris_fit]

Euro now has a stronger storm, GFS loses it, HWRF strong and north. What a year for the models. At least the euro is mostly trustworthy at less than 120 hours. Mostly, but not always.

Eta waves at Euro. Euro was taking ETA in to LA/MS/AL as late as the 00Z Run on 11/10

Absolutely horrible. Completely off on track and intensity.

[aspen]

HWRF develops a pinhole, but it doesn’t undergo a phase of ERI prior to an EWRC on Sunday afternoon. That leads to a normal-sized eye and another phase of RI, assuming Iota stays north of CA.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS Ens are interesting.

Future Iota meanders/landfalls around Central America, and then future Kappa forms, strengthens, and heads towards Cuba.

[aspen]

06Z GFS Ens are interesting.

Future Iota meanders/landfalls around Central America, and then future Kappa forms, strengthens, and heads towards Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/dZvAFXF.gif

How many more Caribbean systems is 2020 going to pump out?! At this rate, we’re going to have a Cat 4 on Thanksgiving or a major in the first days of December.

[kevin]

06Z GFS Ens are interesting.

Future Iota meanders/landfalls around Central America, and then future Kappa forms, strengthens, and heads towards Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/dZvAFXF.gif

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro now has a stronger storm, GFS loses it, HWRF strong and north. What a year for the models. At least the euro is mostly trustworthy at less than 120 hours. Mostly, but not always.

06z GFS crapped out, there's no data between 42 hours and 168 hours, which is when Iota would exist.

[Deshaunrob17]

The Deja Vu scenarios have been real this hurricane season I feel like I've had Deja Vu 10 times this hurricane season

[tolakram]

Euro now has a stronger storm, GFS loses it, HWRF strong and north. What a year for the models. At least the euro is mostly trustworthy at less than 120 hours. Mostly, but not always.

06z GFS crapped out, there's no data between 42 hours and 168 hours, which is when Iota would exist.

Good grief, I didn't notice that.

[SFLcane]

06Z GFS Ens are interesting.

Future Iota meanders/landfalls around Central America, and then future Kappa forms, strengthens, and heads towards Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/dZvAFXF.gif

Hmmm...

[AutoPenalti]

Euro now has a stronger storm, GFS loses it, HWRF strong and north. What a year for the models. At least the euro is mostly trustworthy at less than 120 hours. Mostly, but not always.

06z GFS crapped out, there's no data between 42 hours and 168 hours, which is when Iota would exist.

Good grief, I didn't notice that.

Lambda tries to form at the end of the run but gets buried in CA.

[chris_fit]

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/By1birF.png

That is as Eta as it gets.

Something tells me this won't go to CA though.

[tomatkins]

Euro now has a stronger storm, GFS loses it, HWRF strong and north. What a year for the models. At least the euro is mostly trustworthy at less than 120 hours. Mostly, but not always.

06z GFS crapped out, there's no data between 42 hours and 168 hours, which is when Iota would exist.

I didnt notice that at first, and Im like - WTF - it forms way far south of where every other model has it.

[Spacecoast]

[chris_fit]

Very good agreement on a bend to the WSW and into the EPAC - I would be shocked if this changes drastically. It is 2020. But here in the US I'm hoping we'll be OK.

[kevin]

6 hours since the last models so the party begins again. ICON is the first one, 962 mbar at 138 hours. Stalls at the Honduras coast starting at 123 hours, doesn't landfall until 147 hours.

[kevin]

12z GFS almost identical to 00z GFS in terms of intensity and landfall location, but about 12 hours faster so not only faster than the previous run but faster than most other models as well. Peaks at 967 mbar. Keep in mind that this is way stronger than the global models ever were with Eta this far out. Even after ditching the track possibility without a CA landfall, I just checked the Eta thread since Eta seems like a pretty good analog for this system and most ICON runs were in the 990s and GFS was in the 970s or 980s. It is of course no guarantuee by any means that this system will become equally strong or even worse, I'm just saying that the globals are more bullish on 98L right now than they were regarding Eta at this stage.

[stormchazer]

06z GFS crapped out, there's no data between 42 hours and 168 hours, which is when Iota would exist.

Good grief, I didn't notice that.

Lambda tries to form at the end of the run but gets buried in CA.

What were even getting Nerds this hurricane season?