Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020
Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with Polo
has diminished this evening, with the remaining convection now to
the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity
is held at a possibly generous 35 kt as a blend of subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates. Polo is moving into an
environment of moderate westerly shear, a dryer air mass, and
decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system should
gradually weaken during the next 48 h. The new intensity forecast
has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it calls for
Polo to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate by 60 h.
The initial motion is 285/11. A low-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone should steer the system generally westward until it
dissipates. and the new track forecast is an update of the previous
forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 16.9N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020
Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with Polo
has diminished this evening, with the remaining convection now to
the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity
is held at a possibly generous 35 kt as a blend of subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates. Polo is moving into an
environment of moderate westerly shear, a dryer air mass, and
decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system should
gradually weaken during the next 48 h. The new intensity forecast
has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it calls for
Polo to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate by 60 h.
The initial motion is 285/11. A low-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone should steer the system generally westward until it
dissipates. and the new track forecast is an update of the previous
forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 16.9N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven