EPAC: POLO - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: POLO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:41 pm

EP, 98, 2020111318, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1077W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, SPAWNINVEST, ep762020 to ep982020,



Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of the coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system
moves slowly toward the west-northwest away from the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby NXStumpy_Robothing » Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:44 pm

C'mon EPAC, we're this close to getting a reply to the Atlantic's Marco earlier this year.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby aspen » Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:44 pm

Looks like the EPac is finally going to respond “Polo” to the Atlantic’s “Marco”...almost three months later. Better late than never I guess.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:34 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and
organization near a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:36 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
overnight in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or
early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 14, 2020 12:43 pm

Well,maybe no Polo afterall.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized in association
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. However, environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves
slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of
Mexico. By late next week, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 14, 2020 6:30 pm

Next.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and disorganized area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico is producing
limited shower activity. Environmental conditions are still forecast
to be somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week as the system moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
By late next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#8 Postby bob rulz » Mon Nov 16, 2020 12:57 am

cycloneye wrote:Next.


Next for the EPAC is almost certainly many months away. La Nina really doing its job here.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 16, 2020 7:38 pm

A comeback but a shortlived one.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 PM PST Mon Nov 16 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico. Although
environmental conditions are only somewhat conducive for
development, a short-lived tropical depression could still form
within the next couple of days as the low moves west-northwestward
or northwestward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of Mexico. By
midweek, conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable
for further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart/Roberts
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 7:56 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM PST Tue Nov 17 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of
southwestern Mexico have changed little in organization overnight.
Although environmental conditions are only somewhat conducive for
development, a short-lived tropical depression could still form
within a day or so as the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at about 10 mph. Conditions are forecast to become
increasingly unfavorable for further development on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:45 pm

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020

Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the
circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest
of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated
convective activity has also become organized in a band around the
western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore,
the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds
of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt)
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C,
and within a low shear environment. These conditions are conducive
for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is
fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification. Most of the
intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived
tropical storm, and so does the official forecast. After 24 hours,
increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less
favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to
weaken. The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48
hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of
low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC
forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that
extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific
should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of
days. After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward
as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The
track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 17, 2020 3:53 pm

Image
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Nov 17, 2020 4:21 pm

All this needs to do is become Polo and we're good
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:59 pm

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020

Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass
showed curved bands developing over the western portion of the
cyclone, although deep convection remains rather limited near the
depression's surface center. Subjective satellite intensity
estimate T-numbers haven't changed during the past 6 hours and the
initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity aids along with the LGEM
model indicate that the depression will strengthen to a low-end
tropical storm during the next 12-24 hrs and the NHC forecast
continues to show this trend. Afterward, modest west-southwesterly
shear, cooler oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry
and stable air mass should cause the cyclone to weaken and
degenerate to a remnant low in 2 days. The deterministic guidance
agrees that the depression will open up into a trough of low
pressure in 4 days, or less. This is also reflected in the
official intensity forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10
kt in the mid-tropospheric steering current provided by high
pressure anchored to the north of the cyclone. The depression is
expected to continue in this general motion through Thursday.
Through the remaining forecast period, the depression is forecast
to turn westward in the low-level easterly flow as a shallow, or
vertically limited cyclone. The track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TVCE
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 15.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2020 4:26 am

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

The curved band feature that was prominent in earlier satellite
images has dissipated, likely due to very dry air surrounding the
cyclone. The depression now consists of a small central dense
overcast (CDO) that has just recently become established in the past
few hours. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds
were occurring to the west of the center of the depression, near the
curved band that existed at that time, while winds of 20-25 kt were
occurring around the center. The nearest sampling by a scatterometer
tonight was by the ASCAT-A, which did pass over some of the same
area that had the strongest winds earlier, with peak winds now only
20 kt. Assuming the reorganizing of the convection near the center
has helped to increased the winds somewhat there, the initial
intensity is being held at 30 kt.

If the current CDO feature persists this morning, then the
depression will likely strengthen to a tropical storm later today.
By early Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly shear, cooler
oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry and stable air
mass should cause the cyclone to begin weakening, and by Thursday
night the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and
is in agreement with the various multimodel consensus aids.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt. The
depression is moving to the south of a mid-level ridge, and the
cyclone is expected to continue in this general motion through
tonight. A turn to the west within the low-level easterly trade
wind flow is expected on Thursday as the system loses its deep
convection and becomes shallow. The track forecast was nudged a
little to the left of the previous advisory track due to a shift in
the model guidance in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 15.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 16.1N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 16.5N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 16.8N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Owasso » Wed Nov 18, 2020 8:06 am

EP, 21, 2020111812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1154W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, S,
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Re: EPAC: TWENTY-ONE-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:27 am

Owasso wrote:
EP, 21, 2020111812, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1154W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, POLO, S,

Nice. The season is now complete!
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2020 9:41 am

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

Satellite images indicate that the depression has strengthened into
a tropical storm. The small central dense overcast has grown
during the past several hours and a few banding features have
formed. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial
wind speed is set to 40 kt, which matches the latest CIMSS
satellite consensus estimate. Polo could strengthen a little more
today, but an increase in shear and dry-air entrainment should
start the weakening process on Thursday, with the system expected
to become a non-convective remnant low on Friday. The new NHC
forecast is a little below the model consensus, close to the
previous NHC forecast, leaning toward the idea that the small
tropical cyclone will probably weaken faster than the bulk of the
guidance anticipates.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with Polo
forecast to remain on the southern side of a mid-level ridge
throughout the period. The storm should turn more westward on
Thursday as the system weakens and becomes more shallow. The new
forecast is south of the latest model consensus, nudged slightly
north of the previous NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 16.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 16.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0000Z 17.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby wx98 » Wed Nov 18, 2020 10:36 am

Now we know for sure the tropics are playing games this year. They’re playing Marco Polo :lol:
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Re: EPAC: POLO - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 18, 2020 3:40 pm

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

While the cloud pattern was fairly well organized this morning, Polo
provided a little surprise when the center popped out of the central
dense overcast. The system has since developed deep convection near
the center, so perhaps this was a temporary fluctuation but reflects
marginal environmental conditions. The initial wind speed is kept
at 40 kt as a blend of the satellite data, and unfortunately
scatterometer data missed again for a more certain estimate. Polo
probably will peak in intensity during the next 12 hours or so
before a combination of higher shear and dry/stable air causes the
storm to weaken and eventually become a remnant low on Friday. No
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, and there
were no meaningful model outliers from the NHC prediction.

At least the exposed center allowed for a more precise initial
motion estimate, though it ended up about the same as before 285/10.
Model guidance is tightly clustered on the storm turning westward
tomorrow while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge.
The small cyclone will likely decay into a trough of low pressure
by the weekend. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last
forecast, which continues to lie near or just south of the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 16.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
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