ATL: IDA - Models

[Keldeo1997]

Welp

[SoupBone]

CMC is almost right on top of where the GFS just put it.

[Craters]

HMON running. Let's see what it's got. Looks like HWRF is about to run also

Oh, great. Here comes a Cat 7 that splits in the middle of the GOM and heads for Galveston and New Orleans as two Cat 6 Fujiwhara demons...

[IcyTundra]

00Z CMC is into SW Louisiana like the 00Z GFS although it did go initially further north than the GFS going over the Western Tip of Cuba while the GFS had it threading the needle through the Yucatan Channel. Interesting that both end up in the same location.

[Craters]

After all these years, does the GFS still have problems with ridging? I was under the impression (at least last year) that it was getting better at handling ridges.

[IcyTundra]

After all these years, does the GFS still underestimate ridging? I was under the impression (at least last year) that it was getting better at handling ridges.

Not 100% sure but I heard it still has a slight bias not as bad as it used to be but still there.

[Clearcloudz]

00 GEFS center positions all over the place which has huge implications where the storm finally ends up.

[IcyTundra]

00 GEFS center positions all over the place which has huge implications where the storm finally ends up.

https://i.imgur.com/jg05Fpz.png

Looks like the operational GFS is on the eastern end of the ensemble spread.

[SoupBone]

00 GEFS center positions all over the place which has huge implications where the storm finally ends up.

https://i.imgur.com/jg05Fpz.png

Yep, hence why wxman thinks we're all crazy (not really).

[grapealcoholic]

Looking at 0z operationals tonight: hm nice consolidation

And then ensemble: put the entire gulf coast under a watch

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1430391006814359555

[IcyTundra]

Probably not the best idea, but I guess I am going to stay up for the 0Z Euro with the way the models have been trending this cycle it will probably show a Pensacola landfall.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z ECENS ensembles shows members showing up at everyone's door.

[Craters]

00 GEFS center positions all over the place which has huge implications where the storm finally ends up.

https://i.imgur.com/jg05Fpz.png

Okay -- I think I'm missing something here. (Not because of you, Clearcloudz.) NOAA says that the GEFS has 21 members {https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-gefs/). I'm counting at least 36 tracks in that plot. Can anybody clarify what we're seeing there, maybe?

Thanks!

[IcyTundra]

00 GEFS center positions all over the place which has huge implications where the storm finally ends up.

https://i.imgur.com/jg05Fpz.png

Okay -- I think I'm missing something here. (Not because of you, Clearcloudz.) NOAA says that the GEFS has 21 members {https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-gefs/). I'm counting at least 36 tracks in that plot. Can anybody clarify what we're seeing there, maybe?

Thanks!

GEFS got updated earlier this year I think and now has 30 something ensemble members.

[SoupBone]

The GEFS ensembles still have a bunch of members even near the Mexican coast. Basically, from central Mexico all the way to Central Louisiana.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/1430392605746008065

[Craters]

18Z ECENS ensembles shows members showing up at everyone's door.

https://i.imgur.com/dhPAqtR.png

Notice how (relatively) weak they all are close to the coast?

[Craters]

00 GEFS center positions all over the place which has huge implications where the storm finally ends up.

https://i.imgur.com/jg05Fpz.png

Okay -- I think I'm missing something here. (Not because of you, Clearcloudz.) NOAA says that the GEFS has 21 members {https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-gefs/). I'm counting at least 36 tracks in that plot. Can anybody clarify what we're seeing there, maybe?

Thanks!

GEFS got updated earlier this year I think and now has 30 something ensemble members.

Thanks, IcyTundra. I guess they might want to update their website...

[IcyTundra]

00Z UKMET hasn't been posted yet but it has a pretty strong system due east of South Padre Island. Looks like it is starting to go north on the last couple frames of the run though.