EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 091753
TCSENP

A. 15E (OLAF)

B. 09/1730Z

C. 21.9N

D. 108.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT
OF 4.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 4.0 AND PT IS EQUAL TO 4.5 BASED ON A RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/1135Z 20.9N 108.0W SSMIS


...TUGGLE

[Yellow Evan]

Starting to see signs of a westward turn. We’ll see if it resumes it’s old NNW course or not.

[Kingarabian]

Well it overachieved. Now let's see if it can avoid making a landfall

[Sciencerocks]

[grapealcoholic]

Steering at higher levels is slower and more southerly. Something to keep in mind as it deepens

[grapealcoholic]

Also dealing with some moderate westerly mid-shear

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF tends to overdue mid-level shear see Grace in the BOC.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0.

[grapealcoholic]

:uarrow: HWRF tends to overdue mid-level shear see Grace in the BOC.

Agreed. Seems to be bombing

[grapealcoholic]

Reminds me of Michael with the convective bursts upshear

[Kingarabian]

Probably a cat.2 now.

This frame is about T5.0:

[grapealcoholic]

It's easily a Cat 3, I would go with 100 kts.

[Yellow Evan]

Way too lopsided and eye is too ragged for a Cat 3. 80 knots is probably good for now though if it remains offshore, the window of opportunity exists for continued deepening for another day or so.

[Kingarabian]

2 hour old ASCAT even picked up greater than 60kt barbs.

[Kingarabian]

Has about 12 hours left to strengthen per the GFS and Euro.

[Kingarabian]

Reminds me of Michael with the convective bursts upshear

Need to see a good microwave pass that shows a well established core first.

It has a shot at making it though.

[grapealcoholic]

Way too lopsided and eye is too ragged for a Cat 3. 80 knots is probably good for now though if it remains offshore, the window of opportunity exists for continued deepening for another day or so.

Heck of an 80 kt storm

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1436057946958540804

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1436057946958540804?s=21

Nice at least we'll have some real time observations seeing as there will be no recon for this.

[Kingarabian]

Way too lopsided and eye is too ragged for a Cat 3. 80 knots is probably good for now though if it remains offshore, the window of opportunity exists for continued deepening for another day or so.

Heck of an 80 kt storm

https://i.imgur.com/IikDtS2.gif

Yeah for sure eye is warming at a quick pace now.