ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

It’ll really throw the models for a loop if 98L consolidates way quicker than forecast and further north than expected. The model consensus doesn’t show a TS until Friday, and the disturbance takes a SW dip during the next 24-36 hours before coming back north.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1440442075175002118?

How does the GFS continuously handle the ridging this poorly?

[Category5Kaiju]

It’ll really throw the models for a loop if 98L consolidates way quicker than forecast and further north than expected. The model consensus doesn’t show a TS until Friday, and the disturbance takes a SW dip during the next 24-36 hours before coming back north.

The way I imagine it is like a Douglas 2020-like path except in the Atlantic MDR.

[grapealcoholic]

It’ll really throw the models for a loop if 98L consolidates way quicker than forecast and further north than expected. The model consensus doesn’t show a TS until Friday, and the disturbance takes a SW dip during the next 24-36 hours before coming back north.

A stronger storm would go further south and west

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2021092200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 296W, 25, 1010, DB

[Teban54]

Looks like 98L is getting its act together fairly quickly. So much for the struggle calls or even Peter 2.0 calls earlier when it was devoid of convection.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440478046012641290

[ouragans]

Invest 98L
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 22, 2021:

Location: 9.6°N 29.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 80 nm

[SFLcane]

This is a go for development. Environment ahead looks quite favorable unlike previous Mdr waves

[jlauderdal]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1440442075175002118?

How does the GFS continuously handle the ridging this poorly?

Its the same gfs that drives the system through the ridge down the road

[Category5Kaiju]

Assuming everything goes in favor for future Sam, a very strong Cat 4 or even a Cat 5 cannot be ruled out. Just saying...

[Stormybajan]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1440478046012641290

I saw this and was like wow...thankfully someone else noticed it also, pretty cool feature like an umbilical cord . 98L seems to want to get the party started a bit earlier than expected and a touch north of most models

[Sciencerocks]

[WiscoWx02]

HWRF 00Z drops it. Could be a dud run, or maybe the beginning of the normal model drop off we have seen so much of lately?

[Teban54]

HWRF 00Z drops it. Could be a dud run, or maybe the beginning of the normal model drop off we have seen so much of lately?

Given the current organization trends, that seems extremely unlikely.

What you're seeing is the 18z HWRF, not 00z. As mentioned in the models thread, the 18z HWRF run was erroneous in that it focused on another random area of low pressure.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF 00Z drops it. Could be a dud run, or maybe the beginning of the normal model drop off we have seen so much of lately?

Given the current organization trends, that seems extremely unlikely.

Yeah the 18z run was a dud, 0z hasn't ran yet. 98L is actually behaving similar to the 12z HWRF which showed a big blowup of convection today, which has happened. That run went on to have a Cat 4 approaching the islands.

[grapealcoholic]

It's too bad both ASCATs missed

[WiscoWx02]

HWRF 00Z drops it. Could be a dud run, or maybe the beginning of the normal model drop off we have seen so much of lately?

Given the current organization trends, that seems extremely unlikely.

Yeah the 18z run was a dud, 0z hasn't ran yet. 98L is actually behaving similar to the 12z HWRF which showed a big blowup of convection today, which has happened. That run went on to have a Cat 4 approaching the islands.

Ohhhhhh. Wasn't aware of that yet oops. Thanks for that update guys!

[IcyTundra]

HWRF 00Z drops it. Could be a dud run, or maybe the beginning of the normal model drop off we have seen so much of lately?

If you look at the HWRF-Parent (same as HWRF expect it is a wider view) it still develops 98L. HWRF-Parent is a lower resolution than the HWRF so it would likely be stronger than what it is showing. HWRF sometimes has an issue with systems that haven't developed yet where it sometimes just loses the system and latches onto a seperate low pressure system that is not related to what it is supposed to be tracking. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92118&fh=3

[ElectricStorm]

Given the current organization trends, that seems extremely unlikely.

Yeah the 18z run was a dud, 0z hasn't ran yet. 98L is actually behaving similar to the 12z HWRF which showed a big blowup of convection today, which has happened. That run went on to have a Cat 4 approaching the islands.

Ohhhhhh. Wasn't aware of that yet oops. Thanks for that update guys!

Yeah sometimes HWRF/HMON randomly lose a storm and then show nothing, which happened at 18z. They should be better once an actual center forms within the next few days.