ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

IR presentation still improving. There's room for more strengthening I think

That data point justifies an intensity of 70 kt, since it is likely there are stronger winds in the eyewall that Recon hasn't really gone into.

[Steve]

How long does it have before official landfall?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

Current track takes it on the southern edge of the upper shear on the continent. Not going anywhere fast for us on the east side.

[emings]

Wow y'all. What an interesting system. Very dynamic with a mixture of dry and tropical air. It looking more like a Freeport area landfall and a very tight rainfall gradient. I may not be getting much more out of this. Forecasts for Houston and a lot of surrounding areas are going to bust...

I wouldn't speak so soon on that looks like areas in Jefferson County south of I-10 are going to see very heavy rainfall still

Jefferson County is a different metro area. For the Houston area, mostly dry.

those crazy numbers aren't going to pan out that's for sure...I consider Jefferson County a "surrounding area" atleast it feels that way to me as many trips as I've made there from Houston

[zzh]

From NHC's discussion:

Very recently, a WeatherFlow Station at Matagorda Bay, Texas,
reported sustained winds of 66 kt with a gust to 83 kt. Based on
this observation, Nicholas is being upgraded to a hurricane on this
advisory, and a Hurricane Warning is issued.

[ROCK]

Finally…glad I tuned around..

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I know it’s late, but I’ll call it. 85 mph at landfall. Landfall location: Jamaica Beach

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hurricane Nicholas.

14-6-3

Definitely has Sally & Humberto vibes with how unexpectedly it put itself together.

[loon]

man i know the radar is playing tricks on me, but i don't see how that track happens with the way radar looks right now. That said, wow what a blossom on IR right now ooph.

[HurricaneBrain]

It looks to me this will be making landfall toward Galveston. 85 mph is not out of the question. Don’t think Nick will reach Cat 2. Stay safe everyone. I will be up all night here in Beaumont.

Center reforming NE again, this has been in the works for hours. The two other “centers” are dissipated now. New center moving NNE. Strengthening. I think we will see Hurricane Nick here soon.

[grapealcoholic]

75% of matagorda county is without power

[HurricaneBrain]

It looks to me this will be making landfall toward Galveston. 85 mph is not out of the question. Don’t think Nick will reach Cat 2. Stay safe everyone. I will be up all night here in Beaumont. And if anyone in the area needs help please don’t hesitate to message me.

Center reforming NE again, this has been in the works for hours. The two other “centers” are dissipated now. New center moving NNE. Strengthening. I think we will see Hurricane Nick here soon.

[Sciencerocks]

It looks to me this will be making landfall toward Galveston. 85 mph is not out of the question. Don’t think Nick will reach Cat 2. Stay safe everyone. I will be up all night here in Beaumont.

Center reforming NE again, this has been in the works for hours. The two other “centers” are dissipated now. New center moving NNE. Strengthening. I think we will see Hurricane Nick here soon.

I am leaning towards agreeing with you. This will move a little more to the south side of the cone within my opinion and have a little bit of time to strengthen a little more. it is very rare for a weather station to report higher winds then what can be found in other parts of the storm so it wouldn't surprise me if it was already slightly stronger.

[BeaumontBen]

It looks to me this will be making landfall toward Galveston. 85 mph is not out of the question. Don’t think Nick will reach Cat 2. Stay safe everyone. I will be up all night here in Beaumont.

Center reforming NE again, this has been in the works for hours. The two other “centers” are dissipated now. New center moving NNE. Strengthening. I think we will see Hurricane Nick here soon.

same here . I don't know how someone could sleep through a storm

[supercane4867]

Not sure why NHC only upped the intensity to 65kt. That observation alone justifies 70kt intensity. Could be that they want to wait for more recon confirmation as recalibration may be needed for the reading

[lisa0825]

It looks to me this will be making landfall toward Galveston. 85 mph is not out of the question. Don’t think Nick will reach Cat 2. Stay safe everyone. I will be up all night here in Beaumont.

Center reforming NE again, this has been in the works for hours. The two other “centers” are dissipated now. New center moving NNE. Strengthening. I think we will see Hurricane Nick here soon.

same here . I don't know how someone could sleep through a storm

Depends on the storm... but even when I do sleep during a storm, it is only naps, with frequent status-checks.

Geeze, I just remembered that when I was a kid during Hurricane Alicia, I totally slept through it. I got up once and looked through a peep-hole in a boarded-up window. Thought it looked cool how the tree in the front yard was swaying. My parents acted like it was no big deal - specifically so we kids would not be scared.

[HurricaneBrain]

Not going to lie, Nick might be the ugliest hurricane I’ve ever seen.

[Stormybajan]

Not going to lie, Nick might be the ugliest hurricane I’ve ever seen.

I've seen uglier. Nana last year and the king Hurricane Barry

[SoupBone]

If you knocked on my door and told me there's Cat 1 hurricane 45 or so miles from my house, I'd call you crazy. When I say there's absolutely nothing going on in NW Houston, there's nothing going on. It feels like a cool Fall evening.

[catskillfire51]

If you knocked on my door and told me there's Cat 1 hurricane 45 or so miles from my house, I'd call you crazy. When I say there's absolutely nothing going on in NW Houston, there's nothing going on. It feels like a cool Fall evening.

I am in Quintana, next door to Freeport, it's definitely going on! haha

[AnnularCane]

It looks to me this will be making landfall toward Galveston. 85 mph is not out of the question. Don’t think Nick will reach Cat 2. Stay safe everyone. I will be up all night here in Beaumont.

same here . I don't know how someone could sleep through a storm

Depends on the storm... but even when I do sleep during a storm, it is only naps, with frequent status-checks.

Geeze, I just remembered that when I was a kid during Hurricane Alicia, I totally slept through it. I got up once and looked through a peep-hole in a boarded-up window. Thought it looked cool how the tree in the front yard was swaying. My parents acted like it was no big deal - specifically so we kids would not be scared.

Sounds just like me with Florence 1988. Except it was through a window in the front door. I think that was probably the last time I ever slept through one, and I actually don't know why I didn't stay up then.