ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

[PTrackerLA]

I'm now less than 40 miles to the west of the center of the current track. Good grief.

[wxman57]

Was feeling a tad better about Mississippi but given that this may be a bit stronger than models have it by the time it reaches cuba, and the fact that we are still 60-72 out from landfall a lot can happen. As stated ad nauseam in the board, if you are in the 72 hr cone prepare. Ultimately seems like a lock this will hit LA but a Houma landfall VS going up over Morgan city, New Iberia, and atchafalaya basin will have big impact New Orleans effects as well as Mississippi surge. And right side of the cone op should never feel safe with storms in that region.

Some indications that she may be a larger size storm…not really sure how we tell those things until it’s there, but that will also have an effect on how large a surge we see east of landfall, not to mention intensity. It’s worth noting that pretty much every cat 3+ to strike southeast La from the S or SE has carried a large surge. South central LA along the bays is obviously very surge prone too but dynamics are different and there is more marsh to protect some of the vulnerable communities. Only time will tell, but will be watching for any small adjustments today.

Ignore the cone, it's completely meaningless as far as impacts (just average track error past 5 yrs). Where are you in MS? I expect maybe 5-7 ft tides into the coast Sunday pm, putting water over Highway 90. TS winds east to BIloxi Sunday pm. Rainfall 5-10 inches on the coast. As for size, looks average in size. Hurricane force winds only maybe 35-40 miles from center vs. about 125 for Katrina. TS winds out to about 150 miles from center = about average or very slightly above average.

[Chemmers]

Think they might do a special Advisory saying it is a hurricane when the recon get to the centre

[hipshot]

https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/1431255940582428681

I sure wouldn't want to be in that mess near the center!!!!

[kevin]

New center pass, minimum pressure of 990.6 mbar! Ida's intensifying very rapidly. That ~6 mbar deeper compared to the last pass (996.3 mbar). That is an average intensification of 2.9 mb/hr.

[RL3AO]

990.6

[wxman57]

NHC still copying my advisories. Exact same track, intensity, and timing. Not good for SE LA. Lots of relatives there. Sister in Prairieville (south of Baton Rouge). Fortunately, she has a whole house generator. Widespread 10-15" rain east of the track, including Baton Rouge & New Orleans. I hear they have 3 pumps out in New Orleans. Great timing.

[tropicwatch]

Don't see a report from the center yet.

[InfernoFlameCat]

New center pass, minimum pressure of 990.6 mbar! Ida's intensifying very rapidly. That ~6 mbar deeper compared to the last pass (996.3 mbar). That is an average intensification of 2.9 mb/hr.

Holy. wow. thank goodness Cuba exists.

[Owasso]

[RL3AO]

That wasn't even the center. They did a loop on the east side.

[skyline385]

New center pass, minimum pressure of 990.6 mbar! Ida's intensifying very rapidly. That ~6 mbar deeper compared to the last pass (996.3 mbar). That is an average intensification of 2.9 mb/hr.

Holy. wow. thank goodness Cuba exists.

It's going to pass through western Cuba which is mostly flat, a well developed hurricane won't be impacted much by it...

[MississippiWx]

990mb and no center pass yet...

[InfernoFlameCat]

I have a buddy who chases hurricanes. he is down right now waiting for it. He is really excited.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1431271764370227207




Don't underestimate the GOM during peak season.

[FLpanhandle91]

Seems that they are sampling the tower in the NE quad before moving to the center.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

990mb and no center pass yet...

I'm going to take that value with a grain of salt as the hurricane hunters were rapidly ascending during the pass.

[ThetaE]

55 kt SFMR, hurricane-force flight level. I dunno what they're doing with their flight path, but my guess is there's a bit of a center jump towards the deeper convection and they're adjusting to intercept it. They haven't flown through the center yet though, and still got that 990.6 mb read!

Just noticed: they had to ascend to 700 mb in the strongest winds (!!!), presumably because it was too dangerous to fly at 850mb. It's unclear exactly how that could've impacted the readings, but we'll probably have to wait a bit longer to get a definitive answer on central pressure.

[xironman]

So um, recon is extrapolating 999mb with 50kt FL winds

The look of that loop is they are biding time for a cell to pass before they go into the CoC