ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Each frame the llc gets less and less organized. Fred really decided to go the hard way over Hispanola.

[aspen]

The big test that’ll reveal the future of Fred is what it’ll do tomorrow morning, as whatever’s left of its circulation gets back over water. Will something survive? Will it spin up a new circulation? Or will it be dead forever?

[InfernoFlameCat]

The big test that’ll reveal the future of Fred is what it’ll do tomorrow morning, as whatever’s left of its circulation gets back over water. Will something survive? Will it spin up a new circulation? Or will it be dead forever?

Nah he will be back 6 years later.

[Woofde]

The convection is just sitting completely staionary south of the mountains watching as the naked swirl races out to the NW. I think Fred may have been sliced in two!

[InfernoFlameCat]

The convection is just sitting completely staionary south of the mountains watching as the naked swirl races out to the NW. I think Fred may have been sliced in two!

Yep decoupled. However I am beginning to see signs of possible convection beginning to return near the mutilated center. very small cumulus towers have begun to appear.

[stormhunter7]

I just don't see a low level center right now. I do see upper level shear just north of Hispaniola, moving from west to east... Which will no doubt decouple the system even more.

[AutoPenalti]

Any reports out of Haiti and DR? That looks devastating...

[AdamFirst]

 https://twitter.com/TVVnoticias/status/1425594570373574666

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fred just left his body behind. Well, what remains of Fred.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection increasing from those little tiny cumulus towers. Fred is not dead!

[AdamFirst]

Fred in good position to regenerate convection as it approaches the northern coast of Hispaniola - the process is already beginning.

[TallahasseeMan]

Tough angle of approach for Fred, we'll have to see what morning brings...

[AtlanticWind]

Does look like a swirl off the N coast of Hispanola, maybe the circulation survived.
Didnt think it would be offshore already.

[Blown Away]

It does appear that if anything is going to reform it will be @DR/Haiti N coast... Faint rotation working up there...

Will the NHC bite at 11pm and relocate the estimated low or for continuity continue the position down their forecast line?

[eastcoastFL]

TBH though, Fred is on life support right now.

Nah, convection should start refiring as Fred moves north.

It's certainly possible, but it takes a lot of time to start new structure even with 31C SSTs. With a South Florida landfall looking more likely, it may not have enough time to meaningfully strengthen.

If it’s going to reform before Florida we will probably look at another case of a storm making it’s best run at strengthening just before landfall.

[galaxy401]

Well I think it was too premature to declare this storm dead since nearly every model has Fred making it past the island...

Yeah the HWRF dissipated it but it's a flip flopper right now.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m struggling to identify a circulation of any kind

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the MLC has been completely cut off from the LLC that appears to be long gone.

[skyline385]

I’m struggling to identify a circulation of any kind

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/64337558.gif?0.14783475313632488

Same, dunno how some people saw a decoupled LLC.

Either the LLC is completely gone or its still below the MLC.

[Woofde]

The 11pm update is sure going to be an interesting one. It kinda hard to determine what is Fred.