ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

Moving to college today so I won't be able to track this until later this afternoon. Hopefully nothing crazy happens

[kevin]

If we do have hurricane Grace in 30 minutes that would mean that it's ahead of schedule regarding most models. The latest HWRF didn't have a hurricane for another 11 hours while the most recent GFS & euro didn't reach hurricane strength at all before Yucatan. HMON did have Grace at hurricane strength by now, even though it seems a bit too extreme with 77 kt.

[Mob1]

Both planes now confirm hurricane force surface winds

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the intensification trend has continued, even though its appearance made it seem like it has flattened. Really interested to see how these new convection flares progress. Visible satellite gives clear indication that the banding structure is improving and these flare ups are occurring along them.

[Stormybajan]

I am confident we will have Hurricane Grace at 11

[Zonacane]

There's the pulse-down phase Aric talks about. Grace is gonna go supernova

[Chemmers]

Hello hurricane grace, think the eye is trying to come out

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hurricane Grace

8-2-0

[aspen]

Hurricane Grace

8-2-0

https://i.imgur.com/4ZHjK8x.jpg

It might be at 8-3-1 or maybe even 8-3-2 within the next week.

Grace has roughly 22-24 hours left before its next landfall. With a tight inner core developing and otherwise favorable conditions around it, it’s possible it could reach 90-100 kt.

[kevin]

We have hurricane Grace:


000
WTNT32 KNHC 181450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Grace Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT GRACE
BECOMES A HURRICANE JUST WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 82.2W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

[jaguars_22]

That high is protecting the US. Texas has been seeing a very wet and weird summer this year and we haven’t seen the death ridge setup yet. I’m wondering if this high is going to be strong enough to keep pushing a stronger storm westward! I feel safe here in mid Texas coast so no worry from us. We dodged a bullet

[aspen]

I think Grace has a bit of dry air she’ll need to mix out. Convection around the core is shallow and new hot towers aren’t lasting long.

[WiscoWx02]

I think Grace has a bit of dry air she’ll need to mix out. Convection around the core is shallow and new hot towers aren’t lasting long.

Shear is apparently an issue too, despite a healthy outflow signature according to the NHC center. Maybe that pesky mid level shear we saw so much of last year. Doesn't look primed to rapidly intensify yet, but that could change fast.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think Grace has a bit of dry air she’ll need to mix out. Convection around the core is shallow and new hot towers aren’t lasting long.

Yep, classic pulse down phase. What I think is important to note is how dramatically the structure has changed, even over the last few hours. Shouldn’t take more than a couple of hours to get some big towers going up at this rate

[SouthDadeFish]

Structurally, the storm is pretty messy (which was surprising). Tail Doppler radar analyses showed the southern half of the circulation was barely closed at a height of 1 km. All the strong winds are on the northern half with very weak winds on the southern half. This will have to change to see RI from this point. I think this is why Air Force fixes show the pressure is steady or even rising slightly. It's strange because the storm looks pretty good on satellite.

[Hurricane Mike]

If you follow Grace's track, a landfall near Tampico would be almost a straight-line west/west-northwest since it developed.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Outflow is quickly taking out the PVS


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[StormSkeptic]

Structurally, the storm is pretty messy (which was surprising). Tail Doppler radar analyses showed the southern half of the circulation was barely closed at a height of 1 km. All the strong winds are on the northern half with very weak winds on the southern half. This will have to change to see RI from this point. I think this is why Air Force fixes show the pressure is steady or even rising slightly. It's strange because the storm looks pretty good on satellite.

Why do you think that is? Doesn't seem to be moving too fast and the storm seems relatively well stacked (although think the elliptical eye usually means there is some misalignment).

[WiscoWx02]

If the storms in this area this year are anything like they were last year, then once the sunsets today on Grace, convection will blow back up again