ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[skyline385]

Ida legit just jogged west.

The NHC term for that is wobbling lol

[USTropics]

Saved visible loop from this morning when Ida underwent intense updrafts/hot towers, which can be seen with the lightning bursts near the center:


Another clue was the subtle atmospheric gravity waves in the tropopause that can be seen on the edge of the developing CDO. This is another sign that strong updrafts and deepening convection near the center were occurring (the upward-propagating gravity waves creates the expanding spirals that radiate from the center):


Another fascinating feature with this storm has been the diabetic outflow. Over the past 24 hours, it has quite literally shoved the TUTT towards the west, with a noticeable fracture over Florida:

[ScottNAtlanta]

Saved visible loop from this morning when Ida underwent intense updrafts/hot towers, which can be seen with the lightning bursts near the center:
https://i.postimg.cc/65pPwRk6/44532476.gif

Another clue was the subtle atmospheric gravity waves in the tropopause that can be seen on the edge of the developing CDO. This is another sign that strong updrafts and deepening convection near the center were occurring (the upward-propagating gravity waves creates the expanding spirals that radiate from the center):
https://i.postimg.cc/tCvMgJb3/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Cuba-08-15-36-Z-20210827-map-24-1n-10-100.gif

Another fascinating feature with this storm has been the diabetic outflow. Over the past 24 hours, it has quite literally shoved the TUTT towards the west, with a noticeable fracture over Florida:
https://i.imgur.com/SrIWF1n.gif

Ok...no more sugar for IDA!

[Steve]

Are there any good analogs for a major hurricane on this track as far as impacts on the New Orleans area? I was kind of thinking Betsy, but she was on a sharper NW trajectory with no curve around to the north when she hit SE Louisiana, and also the center passed closer to the city. Then I thought about Andrew, and the angle of approach is pretty similar, but he made landfall a bit west of current projections. I don't recall Andrew causing dramatic impacts for NOLA. Certainly not trying to downplay, but am wondering whether the current track, with the center crossing over Baton Rouge, would likely spare NOLA from much beyond Cat-1 winds and storm surge outside the levees and sea walls. IF it follows the exact NHC track forecast right now. I know flooding in the city from excessive rainfall will also be a major problem no matter where this lands.

Perhaps 1947, but that came in south of the city on WNW/NW heading whereas this looks to be coming up more NNWish.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If the current direction stays the same there might be some rough weather in the western FL Keys

[Shell Mound]

996 to 992 in one pass, and to think that once this gets the gulf conditions will be better for rapid strengthening.

It’s going to spend much of tomorrow over the Loop Current and might be a hurricane upon entering the Gulf…this is a very, very bad combination. I could see it reaching major hurricane intensity as early as tomorrow’s 2pm intermediate advisory.

 https://twitter.com/MileHighBrendan/status/1431286074668511232



As mentioned previously, I think this could easily reach 90 kt/970 mb prior to landfall on W Cuba. Assuming a filling of 5 mb/10 kt over land, Ida would enter the Gulf as a 80-kt/975-mb hurricane. SHIPS is forecasting a 43% (!) chance of a 65-kt increase in Ida’s MSW within the next three days. If Ida were to enter the GoM with MSW of 80 kt, the SHIPS-derived output would add up to a 145-kt hurricane at some point. Given the near-ideal UL/thermodynamic setup over the GoM, Ida’s eastward bias giving it more time over water pre-Cuba, and the presence of a compact inner core + minimal interaction with the flat terrain of western Cuba, I think Ida has a very good opportunity to become a Category-5 hurricane at some point in the Gulf, given typical underestimation of RI under conducive conditions. Ida’s short-term trends imply that the storm should be sufficiently strong as to be capable of eroding any ULL to its west while over the GoM, which would be very bad news for Louisiana.

[skyline385]

Is it possible that Ida is wobbling around because it's developing a tiny core with a pinhole eye from the RI like Delta and Iota last year? A tiny core would be very susceptible to land disruption...

[grapealcoholic]

10 minutes ago people were discussing the storm going east of juventud lol

[xironman]

The Isle of Youth will definitely get clipped

[ScottNAtlanta]

WOW grabbed a couple hours sleep, and wake up to what feels like a gut punch looking at the the models. And I knew it would be a monster since yesterday, but dang this is so worse case!

Any news on them getting the pumps working in NOLA?

[FLpanhandle91]

Ida staying on the eastern edge of the forecast track in the short-term does make her trek across Cuba shorter and it's possible she misses the Sierra de los Organos mountains to the east.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's getting close to time to issue an Eye Watch

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1431268187975397376

[aspen]

I thought recon was leaving earlier. Are they getting ready for a final center pass?

[LARanger]

They start the continuous monitoring tomorrow.

A. BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
AT 28/2330Z

Oh good . . . 'cause I wasn't refreshing enough tabs quickly enough already.



I was 90 miles inland for Katrina and had the eye pass 30 miles to my west. That's basically my mental example for what to expect depending on how close and which side . . . and I don't like it at all, from the direct impact damage to the week without power. Of course, those 90 miles were much more interesting terrain, too . . . not just flat swamp.

Random fact: I already miss the analog copper phone line that even then was a bit anachronistic . . . cell phones were done right away, but I was the last to lose phone since I lived two blocks from the central office so I only lost phone when the CO's batteries died.

Also, in honor of those posting NAM stuff, I'd also like to note that the XTRP model, its results long hailed as the most reliable extrapolations around even if its algorithms are shrouded in mystery, clearly has a much more easterly landfall than other models.

[tropicwatch]

10 minutes ago people were discussing the storm going east of juventud lol

Still looking like it will go over the east end of the island.

[galaxy401]

Got a couple family members that are currently at Keys West. Looks like they'll get some rough weather but shouldn't be too bad.

Ida is on its way to becoming a hurricane. Biggest hope for Louisiana is that Cuba damages Ida just enough for it take to take a long time to restrengthen.

[cycloneye]

Adios recon. Hopefully we have another plane arrive in time to provide data for the 5pm advisory.

Next flight departs at 5:15 PM unless they add missions at todays TDPOD.

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 27/2330Z,28/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0609A CYCLONE
C. 27/2115Z
D. 22.8N 84.1W
E. 27/2300Z TO 28/0530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[skyline385]

I thought recon was leaving earlier. Are they getting ready for a final center pass?

That's what i asked earlier too, they took a sharp turn while looking like they were leaving

[Shawee]

WOW grabbed a couple hours sleep, and wake up to what feels like a gut punch looking at the the models. And I knew it would be a monster since yesterday, but dang this is so worse case!

Any news on them getting the pumps working in NOLA?

They were going to test one tomorrow, but as of now 3 are down. 96 out of 96 are working and ready.