ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

The NOAA plane that left Lakeland a little while ago has turned around gone back.

[tolakram]

We've had a lot of posts this morning but I want to post a reminder here for everyone.

You will be respectful towards the NHC, even when you disagree. I'm especially looking at those who thought Elsa would be an open wave by now, but have changed their tune and now have the audacity to criticize the NHC for underestimating Elsa's strength. Intensity forecasts have low skill, this is not something new. Please think twice before making harsh and unsubstantiated statements.

[aspen]

Recon confirmed that the center is indeed around 60.1W. The pressure so far is a lot higher than expected, and it has yet to find hurricane-force winds.

[Cat5James]

Haven't seen the 8AM Cone posted so here it is

http://i.ibb.co/TB9g3mW/Cone1.png

Slightly different angle of approach... looks to scrape most of the west coast of FL before heading inland

[toad strangler]

Haven't seen the 8AM Cone posted so here it is

http://i.ibb.co/TB9g3mW/Cone1.png

Slightly different angle of approach... looks to scrape most of the west coast of FL before heading inland

That's just the center point of the cone. Center could be anywhere inside that cone.

[ChrisH-UK]

Just looked at the latest Barbados Radar and it looks like the eye is just south of Barbados.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 1625230272

[ThetaE]

So we have Hurricane Elsa out there before reaching the LA, with her getting stronger faster than expected, will this result more poleward movement or further West before turning North.

I’ve seen the Caribbean storm with the center of the cone over western FL/eastern Gulf many times. Guess it’ll depend on steering currents in the higher levels but a stronger storm would usually pull up the East Coast as opposed to the Gulf.

Actually, the opposite should be expected here, since winds are less southerly in the upper levels. This is consistent with shear displacing the LLC north of convection yesterday. For steering implications, see:
 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1410931036733657092

[InfernoFlameCat]

Recon confirmed that the center is indeed around 60.1W. The pressure so far is a lot higher than expected, and it has yet to find hurricane-force winds.

I think the stronger winds are at the low levels. It’s a storm that is strengthening from the bottom up.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410946462800822275

[BYG Jacob]

Just looked at the latest Barbados Radar and it looks like the eye is just south of Barbados.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 1625230272

https://i.imgur.com/OBB0ZU6.png

Look at that feeder band.

[TallyTracker]

With the vort this established, I doubt downright dissipation is on the table anymore. The biggest impediment I see now is land interaction in 36 hours with the Greater Antilles. I believe the NHC’s intensity forecast is too conservative (they mention it’s likely to change at 11 am). With that said, forecasting a hurricane into Florida at this stage is premature IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

NE-NW eyewall looking pretty intense.

looks to pass between St Lucia

[chaser1]

Re: When will the first hurricane of 2021 season form in the North Atlantic?
#15 PostMon Jun 21, 2021 9:40 pm

Hurricane Danny - Clearwater, Florida July 3rd
compact, max winds 75 mph - 986 mb

Okay, so I was never good with names LOL....and I WAS off by 16 hours as well; Sure hope I whiff on the Clearwater Fl. part of my prediction. Right now though things are getting pretty "real". It's certainly pretty real for those in Barbados and the Wndwards. Prayers to those in Elsa's path and dealing with her unexpected fury.

[AutoPenalti]

Almost definitely yes. It should really feel the ridge. Also could make it move faster.

Depends on the intensity.

[aspen]

Wow this is a lot weaker than expected. The central pressure isn’t even below 1000 mbar and no hurricane force winds have been found yet. Maybe this actually isn’t a hurricane yet.

[MarioProtVI]

Wow this is a lot weaker than expected. The central pressure isn’t even below 1000 mbar and no hurricane force winds have been found yet. Maybe this actually isn’t a hurricane yet.

I think it was briefly but the island of Barbados disrupted the circulation a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

dont get into a tizzy about recon just yet.. remember these islands cause a lot of Eddys/turbulent flow.

same thing happened with Dorian and many other storms/hurricanes. centers like to bounce all over the place. reform. pockets of random lower pressures from the turbulence.

so don't go all posting its an open wave.. lol

[AlphaToOmega]

Wow this is a lot weaker than expected. The central pressure isn’t even below 1000 mbar and no hurricane force winds have been found yet. Maybe this actually isn’t a hurricane yet.

Are you talking about the best track? I am still not entirely sure what is going on there

AL, 05, 2021070206, , BEST, 0, 123N, 573W, 50, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 110, 1012, 180, 40, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 210, 75, 0, 75, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 05, 2021070206, , BEST, 0, 123N, 573W, 50, 1001, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 40, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELSA, M, 12, NEQ, 210, 75, 0, 75, genesis-num, 010,

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow this is a lot weaker than expected. The central pressure isn’t even below 1000 mbar and no hurricane force winds have been found yet. Maybe this actually isn’t a hurricane yet.

I don't think the area of strongest winds were sampled. Barbados definitely experienced hurricane force winds.

[tiger_deF]

Wow this is a lot weaker than expected. The central pressure isn’t even below 1000 mbar and no hurricane force winds have been found yet. Maybe this actually isn’t a hurricane yet.

Very surprising, just based off IR this is nearly the best Elsa has ever looked. Goes to show looks can be deceiving. IMO Elsa will be a cat 2 hurricane by tonight regardless.