ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Sam has stopped moving in the last several frames . . . What is going on? I've never seen a powerful MDR storm do that before . . .

[GCANE]

Much more pronounced south component. I don't think its a wobble. CIMSS may be spot on.

[NDG]

I wonder why this gap between the mission last night and the 4 PM one this afternoon. Very vaulable time in this period that Sam is getting a little stronger this morning.

Is it because the one that was originally scheduled for this morning was moved up to yesterday evening?
But I agree, they should had re-scheduled another one for this morning specially with no other flights scheduled for any systems closer to the US.

[aspen]

[kevin]

Beautiful visible and dvorak presentation with lightning indicating continued intensification. This might even be stronger now than it was at its original peak a few hours before recon arrived yesterday. Besides a possible EWRC (of which there is no sign as of now) I don't think anything else can stop Sam. Low shear, high SSTs, a good structure. And the further west it gets the better the conditions become. Even if it were to experience an EWRC I have no doubt that it would quickly recover.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'd put the intensity at 135 knots right now. Looks better than it did yesterday even.

[WiscoWx02]

Sam will always be a category 5 in my book regardless, just like Jose (2017), Eta (2020), Iota (2020) and Hector (2018). The satellite appearance supports it, it did yesterday before recon arrived. The NHC will probably never designate it as a category 5 but that doesn't really change my view on it much. Maybe in post-analysis it happens?

[Hugo1989]

Much more pronounced south component. I don't think its a wobble. CIMSS may be spot on.

This is almost a cat 5 so definitely is not a wooble! Let’s see if NHC mention it.

[blp]

Sam has stopped moving in the last several frames . . . What is going on? I've never seen a powerful MDR storm do that before . . .

The slowdown and wobbling WSW motion is indicative of it begining the transition to the WNW as it reaches the periphery of the high. Should start the turning in the next couple of hours.

[Iceresistance]

CIMSS is showing a Westerly Steer profile all the way into the Western Caribbean





If Sam does indeed reach the Caribbean, we could be facing a Monster Storm . . .

[blp]

CIMSS is showing a Westerly Steer profile all the way into the Western Caribbean

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8dlm664c76398e8f29f3c.gif

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/wg8dlm19361e9149d93af7e.gif

If Sam does indeed reach the Caribbean, we could be facing a Monster Storm . . .

Fortunately, they only show what is happening now and not predictive so it will change soon. Thankfully it looks like the Caribbean has dodged a major bullet on this one.

[Hugo1989]

Sam has stopped moving in the last several frames . . . What is going on? I've never seen a powerful MDR storm do that before . . .

The slowdown and wobbling WSW motion is indicative of it begining the transition to the WNW as it reaches the periphery of the high. Should start the turning in the next couple of hours.

Yes I have been seen this before but just to remind you this is a powerful hurricane and they tend to create their own steering environment

[aspen]

Recon is scheduled to arrive at Sam at 2215z tonight. Fingers crossed that it somehow manages to not start an EWRC in the next 8 hours.

[kevin]

Recon is scheduled to arrive at Sam at 2215z tonight. Fingers crossed that it somehow manages to not start an EWRC in the next 8 hours.

It's kind of like a betting game. The longer you wait the stronger Sam will become, but if you're too late and the EWRC cycle has started then you'll never know the peak. Let's hope 8 hours is still on the good side of that bet.

[Iceresistance]

North wobble at the last few frames . . .

[aspen]

No outer eyewall forming on the 10z microwave pass. It’s pretty similar to the pass four hours earlier: a compact, powerful core with some outer bending that has yet to try to form into an outer eyewall.

[Owasso]

...SAM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 50.2W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

[blp]

Sam has stopped moving in the last several frames . . . What is going on? I've never seen a powerful MDR storm do that before . . .

The slowdown and wobbling WSW motion is indicative of it begining the transition to the WNW as it reaches the periphery of the high. Should start the turning in the next couple of hours.

Yes I have been seen this before but just to remind you this is a powerful hurricane and they tend to create their own steering environment

Definitely agree a major can pump up the ridge for a period of time and make the steering more pronounced but that is not the setup here. The weakness is significant. This one is not in doubt no matter how strong it gets.

[Owasso]

From the discussion.

The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were both T-6.5/127 kt, while the objective estimate from ADT is
near 122 kt. Based on these data, there is no reason to change the
125-kt initial intensity at this time, especially given that a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled for a late afternoon/early
evening mission into Sam today.

[Yellow Evan]

While eye temperatures and cloud top temperatures are similar to what they were yesterday, symmetry seems to still be improving. Probably on the doorstep of Category 5 though satellite estimates don’t support it.