ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Yesterday's 12z HWRF absolutely nailed the current location and condition of Fred...even down to the barometric pressure (1013mb as measured by recon).

[Dean4Storms]

Have not seen Recon report a west wind yet.

[Kohlecane]

That naked swirl that's now just west of the Inagua Island looks like it is the true center now that we have some visual images. A seriously doubt we will see a center relocation....that is the center, if it dies off so does Fred.

Shear is clearly an issue and will be a major inhibitor today. As in the NHC discussion, the EURO is hinting at shear letting up tomorrow, until/if this happens Fred will.be fighting for survival.

EURO also called for a more northerly track... Let’s see if that swirl can build convection. I’m surprised NHC not even a small chance mention of possible degenerating into a remnant low. They have confidence!

According to the Recon it looks to be further south than that, even a little more south than what I had thought.

https://i.imgur.com/o7gSTpV.png

looks like it would be closer to 21N 74W IMO

[NDG]

center is here
https://i.imgur.com/yznMXvw.gif

That's a joke, right?

[NDG]

Have not seen Recon report a west wind yet.

I can tell the circulation is very weak, it has to sample the southern & SW quadrant to try to find west winds.
Plenty of SW winds in the SE quadrant.

[grapealcoholic]

center is here
https://i.imgur.com/yznMXvw.gif

That's a joke, right?

Lol, just what I see. 74.7W 17.3N bag it

[NDG]

Yesterday's 12z HWRF absolutely nailed the current location and condition of Fred...even down to the barometric pressure (1013mb as measured by recon).

But this morning's 06z run is way off, it had the surface low west of Haiti, south of the eastern tip of Cuba.

[BobHarlem]

center is here
https://i.imgur.com/yznMXvw.gif

That's a joke, right?

Lol, just what I see. 74.7W 17.3N bag it

If anything comes of that, it wouldn't be called Fred.

[grapealcoholic]

That's a joke, right?

Lol, just what I see. 74.7W 17.3N bag it

If anything comes of that, it wouldn't be called Fred.

No, that is fred

[tolakram]

Poor Fred (saved loop)


The floater just moved so not a lot of frames yet.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[NDG]

Lol, just what I see. 74.7W 17.3N bag it

If anything comes of that, it wouldn't be called Fred.

No, that is fred

You don't look for the LLC by looking at IR satellite, lol.
Look at the visible satellite loop tell me if you see a surface circulation there because all I see is nothing but SE to NW moving surface clouds, no signs of a surface circulation.

[Kohlecane]

Lol, just what I see. 74.7W 17.3N bag it

If anything comes of that, it wouldn't be called Fred.

No, that is fred

no no ..Fredricksburg, VA is 38.3032° N, 77.4605° W

[Frank P]

Looks to be moving west as recently forecast by the 06z Euro, if so going to get very close to the coast of Cuba… tbd

[Dean4Storms]

Have not seen Recon report a west wind yet.

I can tell the circulation is very weak, it has to sample the southern & SW quadrant to try to find west winds.
Plenty of SW winds in the SE quadrant.

That's exactly what you'd find in just a trough axis or wave. Unless they locate a true west wind it isn't a closed circulation, which I know you know that. Need to wait to see what Recon goes on to find, they might downgrade it again to a PTC.

[tolakram]

I'm deleting one liners or posts that are useless. You know who you are so please stop. This is a discussion forum, if you don't want to discuss then keep away from the post button please. Thanks. If you prefer chatting and can't resist one liners then head to the Discord S2K chat room, link in my signature. As long as you're polite you can chatter away in there.

[tolakram]

Recon getting close to telling us if there's any west winds.

[Dean4Storms]

This is the closest METAR-TAF site that I can find near the Northeast Coast of Cuba.....No west wind yet. https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/cuba-jamaica.php?icao=MUHG

[tolakram]

There is a VDM so it's decided for now.

179
URNT12 KNHC 121154
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062021
A. 12/11:23:00Z
B. 20.75 deg N 073.88 deg W
C. 850 mb 1520 m
D. 1013 mb - drop pressure
E. 040 deg 4 kt - center wind speed direction
F. NA
G. NA
H. 23 kt
I. 309 deg 42 nm 11:10:00Z
J. 057 deg 20 kt
K. 310 deg 66 nm 11:02:30Z
L. 26 kt
M. 132 deg 46 nm 11:37:30Z
N. 209 deg 25 kt
O. 133 deg 58 nm 11:41:30Z
P. 17 C / 1525 m
Q. 17 C / 1524 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 134 / 8
T. 0.02 / 10 nm
U. AF307 0606A FRED OB 04
MAX FL WIND 25 KT 133 / 58 NM 11:41:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 310 / 59 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

How to read a VDM: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/66

[NDG]

Recon about to make another pass, should find W to NW winds in the SW quadrant.

BTW, go to the models thread to check out the latest 06z Euro.

[AutoPenalti]

If that's the center then wow, I didn't think it would survive the mountains...