ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[psyclone]

Ida has become a peak season insta-cane. Looking like 2 majors for August and 2 major gulf landfalls. Tough to imagine the gulf won't yield more with all of September and October to go..

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1431295943203295237

VDM confirmed C32

[grapealcoholic]

Seeing -90s now. Things are really starting to ramp up, the feedback loop is in full effect right now

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow! That was fast. Incredible intensification we're watching already. I'd go with 70 knots based on that recon, but waiting for dropsonde.

[Shell Mound]

There's still a lot of low-level dry air to the west and south of Ida:https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-10-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined. And unless I'm imagining things, there are a good number of outflow boundaries to the southwest of the CoC: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined.

How much does low-level dry air inhibit intensification relative to mid-level dry air, all other things being equal? I'm just wondering if Ida would be deepening even faster if the lower levels were more humid.

Bump for a response

[bella_may]

Anyone have a good radar link?

[CrazyC83]

There was a flagged 87 kt SFMR reading, which is likely false due to shallow water. However, the data looks good enough for a 70 kt intensity.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1431302963557847043

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HURRICANE Ida

Code: Select all

...IDA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
1:15 PM EDT Fri Aug 27
Location: 21.4°N 82.4°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph


[SteveM]

A very quick blow-up. We must hope that Cuba disrupts it somewhat, or at least just slows down the intensification process.

[bella_may]

HURRICANE Ida

Code: Select all

...IDA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
1:15 PM EDT Fri Aug 27
Location: 21.4°N 82.4°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph


She’s booking it

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Because NHC home page has old update, here it is:

Expires:No;;667509
WTNT64 KNHC 271712
TCUAT4

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
115 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that Ida has strengthened into a hurricane as it approaches the
Isle of Youth, Cuba. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to
be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

A sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust of 60 mph (96 km/h)
were recently reported on Cayo Largo, Cuba.


SUMMARY OF 110 PM EDT...1710 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM E OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

From: https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/hurrica ... update.txt

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like it's a hurricane now... Just over 26 hours since it formed. That's... Fast. Off to the races now

[xironman]

HURRICANE Ida

Code: Select all

...IDA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE ISLE OF YOUTH...
1:15 PM EDT Fri Aug 27
Location: 21.4°N 82.4°W
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph


She’s booking it

Ida will be over western Cuba for about 2.5 hrs. That will probably do very little.

[ColdMiser123]

7 mb stronger now compared to the 6 hour HWRF forecast, very remarkable to see.

[grapealcoholic]

[wx98]

Officially a hurricane

[Hypercane_Kyle]

With that, Ida becomes the 4th hurricane of the season and the third this month alone.

9-4-1

[Ken711]

Levi's latest report.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y-lpFQ-XLs

[Ken711]

[quote="Ken711"]Levi's latest report.

[Youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y-lpFQ-XLs[/Youtube]