ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

It appears that Sam has wobbled to look like it's moving at 0°, which is straight north

Edit: Wrong Coordinate calculation, oops

[hipshot]

While eye temperatures and cloud top temperatures are similar to what they were yesterday, symmetry seems to still be improving. Probably on the doorstep of Category 5 though satellite estimates don’t support it.

I notice 2 more possible systems behind Sam on our map at the top of each page. As Sam
slows down, any chance these catch up and have an affect on Sam or each other?

[Sciencerocks]

[ronjon]

It appears that Sam has wobbled to look like it's moving at 0°, which is straight north

It looks like Sam is wobbling due west the last few hours (270 degrees).

[Teban54]

I fail to see how this isn't at least 130 kt. Clearly intensified since the recon mission and had a more impressive look for a few hours now, so even if you treat the recon intensity as 125 kt, this could easily be 130 kt now. If you think recon indicated more of a 130-135 kt storm, this might be a Cat 5 already.

[Stormybajan]

For me, its been at 130 knot intensity for about 20 hours now. Right now its a toss up between 130-135 knots, especially with that extremely dry eye signature, not sure why Sam is still 125 knots for the NHC. Im hoping in post season it gets a well deserved uptick in intensity in post season

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2021 Time : 145020 UTC
Lat : 13:55:12 N Lon : 50:06:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 944.0mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +18.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Owasso]

[aspen]

https://i.postimg.cc/PJGcdhvx/BE46-DD83-6-B87-4738-B778-30-B262-FB6-C22.png

The outer bands need to hold off for just 7 more hours…

[GCANE]

Looks like its making the turn to the north now

[Yellow Evan]

ERC coming though probably not in the next few hours.

[TorSkk]

Looks like a solid 140 kt/T7.0 cat 5

[ThetaE]

While Sam's IR appearance has been pretty steady the last few hours, the eye has dried out significantly on WV satellite. This is a clear indication that Sam is in fact strengthening right now. A drier eye means there's more subsidence, which contributes to a stronger warm core. A drying eye is often a good indicator of strengthening in upper-end storms, e.g. I remember this happening w/ Dorian before the strongest recon passes. Not to say Sam is that strong, but a very plausible case for Cat 5 can be made.

[aspen]

Sam’s current location can support pressures down to 930-925mb. It’s possible it is close to those MPIs now, and even if an outer eyewall successfully forms before recon arrives, the inner eyewall is potent enough that significant weakening is unlikely.

If Sam does visibly weaken before recon arrives, then this will go down as one of the worst recon schedules ever.

[kevin]

I think that for the first time in its life this might actually be a 140kt cat 5 right now. I estimated 130-135 kt for the original peak yesterday, but this looks very T7.0 right now. As aspen mentioned even if the outer eyewall starts forming the inner one should hopefully still be stable enough to survive at peak strength until well after recon arrives.

[kevin]

Sam’s current location can support pressures down to 930-925mb. It’s possible it is close to those MPIs now, and even if an outer eyewall successfully forms before recon arrives, the inner eyewall is potent enough that significant weakening is unlikely.

If Sam does visibly weaken before recon arrives, then this will go down as one of the worst recon schedules ever.

Yes true. But even if recon finds a weakened storm I think a very strong case for 140 kt can be made in post-season analysis, especially if f.e. after some weakening recon still finds 135 kt or something like that. Even though I'd rather have a cat 5 announcement today instead of a possible designation 1 year later.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.postimg.cc/PJGcdhvx/BE46-DD83-6-B87-4738-B778-30-B262-FB6-C22.png

The outer bands need to hold off for just 7 more hours…

Or do the EWRC quicker so it can recover faster . . .

[ElectricStorm]

I'd probably put this at 135-140 kts right now, although I'm hesitant to 140 without any direct measurements. Hopefully it holds until recon gets there.

[Owasso]

Dark red eye alert.

[KirbyDude25]

https://i.postimg.cc/jjwf0JVz/1-B4125-B2-617-B-4-BFE-82-DD-6179-A709-B75-E.gif

Dark red eye alert.

What does dark red in the eye mean? I assume it means that the eye is really warm, but how warm exactly?