ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Something isn't quite right here. There's definitely an eye/eyewall on radar, with a closed LLC that produced hurricane force winds in Barbados only an hour ago.

Recon barely shows a tropical cyclone, with 55 knot winds.

dont get into a tizzy about recon just yet.. remember these islands cause a lot of Eddys/turbulent flow.

same thing happened with Dorian and many other storms/hurricanes. centers like to bounce all over the place. reform. pockets of random lower pressures from the turbulence.

so don't go all posting its an open wave.. lol

[tiger_deF]

Something isn't quite right here. There's definitely an eye/eyewall on radar, with a closed LLC that produced hurricane force winds in Barbados only an hour ago.

Recon barely shows a tropical cyclone, with 55 knot winds.

Maybe the fact that the storm was practically on Barbados when the recon took the first pass might have resulted in some kind of interference? Also very confused

[jlauderdal]

The winds are misleadingly strong because of the trades.

That is helping and just because there are hurricane-force winds doesn't mean we have a hurricane

[InfernoFlameCat]

1004 mb hurricane. Wow.

[tolakram]

SLIDER floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=978&y=1084&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Wider view
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=13928&y=8176&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

UWM
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso1_60.html
source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs ... meso1.html

[MarioProtVI]

The winds are misleadingly strong because of the trades.

That is helping and just because there are hurricane-force winds doesn't mean we have a hurricane

I disagree, if there was sustained-hurricane force winds it’s a hurricane no matter how sloppy it looks. Barry 2019 was extremely disorganized with no eyewall yet it was a minimal hurricane.

[loon]

The winds are misleadingly strong because of the trades.

That is helping and just because there are hurricane-force winds doesn't mean we have a hurricane

But the NHC has classified it as a Hurricane already.. am I getting bad data somehow? I noticed everyone is still talking like it wasn't upgraded.. am I in the upside down? heheh

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMO, the situation has dramatically changed with that first recon pass. We've gone from an intensifying hurricane to another Hurricane Debby (2000). Shear, fast forward speed will keep this from intensifying today.

[AutoPenalti]

The winds are misleadingly strong because of the trades.

That is helping and just because there are hurricane-force winds doesn't mean we have a hurricane

But the NHC has classified it as a Hurricane already.. am I getting bad data somehow? I noticed everyone is still talking like it wasn't upgraded.. am I in the upside down? heheh

Follow what NHC says, not people on this board. We are just observers.

[tolakram]

UMW linear view.

I'd be hard pressed to say this isn't still intensifying.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

[HurricaneEnzo]

IMO, the situation has dramatically changed with that first recon pass. We've gone from an intensifying hurricane to another Hurricane Debby (2000). Shear, fast forward speed will keep this from intensifying today.

Shear??? Visible says otherwise. System has great outflow in all quads.

[BYG Jacob]

UMW linear view.

I'd be hard pressed to say this isn't still intensifying.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

That feeder band sucking in moisture from South America.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410952085613559812

[BYG Jacob]

There has to be some kind of issue with recon. Until there's an explanation, I'll trust surface obs, radar, and vis.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410952085613559812

No


dont get into a tizzy about recon just yet.. remember these islands cause a lot of Eddys/turbulent flow.

same thing happened with Dorian and many other storms/hurricanes. centers like to bounce all over the place. reform. pockets of random lower pressures from the turbulence.

so don't go all posting its an open wave.. lol

[AutoPenalti]

Crazy that Recon is finding 1004mb pressure at 70kts.

[ObsessedMiami]

If I was down on the peninsula, I'd probably get some basics knocked out today - ice, water, top off those gas tanks, etc. It's already going to be a holiday weekend with lots of travel. Fair chance the majority of the peninsula could be in line for tropical storm effects.

I vowed to get my gas early this year, five gallons per paycheck stored with StaBil because I am NOT doing the gas station shuffle that I did with Irma in Miami. Went ahead and moved up a couple of those cans to this morning. No lines for me this year (I hope)

[InfernoFlameCat]

Poor Wxman57 is going to wake up to this and be like, yep my vacation is cancelled.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410952085613559812

No


dont get into a tizzy about recon just yet.. remember these islands cause a lot of Eddys/turbulent flow.

same thing happened with Dorian and many other storms/hurricanes. centers like to bounce all over the place. reform. pockets of random lower pressures from the turbulence.

so don't go all posting its an open wave.. lol

Can we stop with the "no" posts?

Andy Hazeltonis a credible met with many high quality posts. You should at least consider his opinion.

EDIT Recon also may have missed the storm to the south by about 10 nautical miles:  https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1410955468038680582

[AutoPenalti]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =ir-dvorak