ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

That old convection might be trying to make something form.

[InfernoFlameCat]

On visible you can see convection refiring around the center of Fred. Should appear on IR soon.

[Kohlecane]

Was gonna ask in the recon forum but it seems prevalent here Mission 5 are they interested in what was left behind or what is now SW of Hispaniola, or gathering atmospheric data for models at this point. Also thank you for that VDM link I have to go back sometimes and re look. Interesting how close it is to 21N 74W which a lot of us were seeing

[tolakram]

Fred has to run through the shear before anything significant will happen, IMO.

[NDG]

Have not seen Recon report a west wind yet.

I can tell the circulation is very weak, it has to sample the southern & SW quadrant to try to find west winds.
Plenty of SW winds in the SE quadrant.

That's exactly what you'd find in just a trough axis or wave. Unless they locate a true west wind it isn't a closed circulation, which I know you know that. Need to wait to see what Recon goes on to find, they might downgrade it again to a PTC.

Here are your west winds

URNT15 KNHC 121244
AF307 0606A FRED HDOB 21 20210812
123430 2039N 07401W 8429 01601 //// +159 //// 006004 005 006 000 01
123500 2037N 07401W 8431 01599 //// +160 //// 352005 005 005 000 01
123530 2036N 07402W 8430 01599 //// +154 //// 338003 004 005 000 01
123600 2034N 07402W 8433 01599 //// +158 //// 341003 004 007 001 01
123630 2032N 07402W 8430 01602 //// +162 //// 339003 003 006 001 01
123700 2031N 07403W 8430 01602 //// +156 //// 330004 004 007 000 01
123730 2029N 07403W 8429 01603 //// +154 //// 349003 004 007 000 01
123800 2027N 07403W 8430 01603 //// +158 //// 344002 003 006 000 01
123830 2026N 07404W 8429 01604 //// +160 //// 309002 003 006 000 01
123900 2024N 07404W 8432 01603 //// +162 //// 318002 003 007 000 01
123930 2022N 07404W 8430 01602 //// +165 //// 310001 001 006 000 01
124000 2021N 07403W 8441 01595 //// +166 //// 299002 002 005 000 05
124030 2020N 07402W 8425 01609 //// +169 //// 294003 004 005 000 01
124100 2019N 07401W 8430 01604 //// +168 //// 279005 006 003 000 01
124130 2018N 07359W 8433 01603 //// +165 //// 254005 006 006 000 01
124200 2016N 07358W 8429 01608 //// +164 //// 230005 006 005 000 01
124230 2015N 07357W 8431 01606 //// +159 //// 227006 007 003 000 01
124300 2014N 07355W 8433 01604 //// +160 //// 209009 009 005 000 01
124330 2013N 07354W 8424 01613 //// +160 //// 219009 010 005 000 01
124400 2012N 07353W 8430 01605 //// +164 //// 232011 012 006 000 01
$$

[wxman57]

Not sure that northern center will survive. Could reform a bit south near the southern edge of its broad center. Doesn't appear as though Fred will be more than a rain threat for Florida.

[Kohlecane]

Fred has to run through the shear before anything significant will happen, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/6yXmoKz.png

Is that ULL over FL influencing a lot of that shear?

[tolakram]

Fred has to run through the shear before anything significant will happen, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/6yXmoKz.png

Is that ULL over FL influencing a lot of that shear?

Yep, it's the primary cause of the shear as far as I can tell.

[Weatherboy1]

Fred doing his best impersonation of the guy in that Monty Python skit (I.e. “But I’m not dead yet!”) It’s all about whether convection can refire in the next 6-12 hours at this point,
Despite the shear

[grapealcoholic]

A monster in the making..

[Blown Away]

A monster in the making..

https://i.imgur.com/dztoPao.gif

Your map looks like Fred sunk Hispaniola.

[Dean4Storms]

I can tell the circulation is very weak, it has to sample the southern & SW quadrant to try to find west winds.
Plenty of SW winds in the SE quadrant.

That's exactly what you'd find in just a trough axis or wave. Unless they locate a true west wind it isn't a closed circulation, which I know you know that. Need to wait to see what Recon goes on to find, they might downgrade it again to a PTC.

Here are your west winds

URNT15 KNHC 121244
AF307 0606A FRED HDOB 21 20210812
123430 2039N 07401W 8429 01601 //// +159 //// 006004 005 006 000 01
123500 2037N 07401W 8431 01599 //// +160 //// 352005 005 005 000 01
123530 2036N 07402W 8430 01599 //// +154 //// 338003 004 005 000 01
123600 2034N 07402W 8433 01599 //// +158 //// 341003 004 007 001 01
123630 2032N 07402W 8430 01602 //// +162 //// 339003 003 006 001 01
123700 2031N 07403W 8430 01602 //// +156 //// 330004 004 007 000 01
123730 2029N 07403W 8429 01603 //// +154 //// 349003 004 007 000 01
123800 2027N 07403W 8430 01603 //// +158 //// 344002 003 006 000 01
123830 2026N 07404W 8429 01604 //// +160 //// 309002 003 006 000 01
123900 2024N 07404W 8432 01603 //// +162 //// 318002 003 007 000 01
123930 2022N 07404W 8430 01602 //// +165 //// 310001 001 006 000 01
124000 2021N 07403W 8441 01595 //// +166 //// 299002 002 005 000 05
124030 2020N 07402W 8425 01609 //// +169 //// 294003 004 005 000 01
124100 2019N 07401W 8430 01604 //// +168 //// 279005 006 003 000 01
124130 2018N 07359W 8433 01603 //// +165 //// 254005 006 006 000 01
124200 2016N 07358W 8429 01608 //// +164 //// 230005 006 005 000 01
124230 2015N 07357W 8431 01606 //// +159 //// 227006 007 003 000 01
124300 2014N 07355W 8433 01604 //// +160 //// 209009 009 005 000 01
124330 2013N 07354W 8424 01613 //// +160 //// 219009 010 005 000 01
124400 2012N 07353W 8430 01605 //// +164 //// 232011 012 006 000 01
$$

It's not much but it's there.

[jlauderdal]

Fred has to run through the shear before anything significant will happen, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/6yXmoKz.png

Is that ULL over FL influencing a lot of that shear?

Trough in the gulf, ULL hanging around florida..none of that is ideal for intensification...we will get some "wind" enhancement in sofla from that setup though but lets be clear, this storm isn't about the wind for now, it will be an efficient rain producer for the next few days due to more than just fred, fred wont be working in a vacumn

[AutoPenalti]

That ULL is hanging on... it's been sitting there for a whole week.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well, now that Fred's passed Hispaniola we have a better idea of its future.

The outlook for Fred isn't complete dissipation as some of the models have been consistently portraying, nor is it the jacked up HWRF scenario.

A 60-65 knot system is possible in the Gulf should it manage to avoid a central Florida landfall as it has managed to remain a tropical cyclone today. Those waters are warm, and shear doesn't appear too hostile.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Fred doing his best impersonation of the guy in that Monty Python skit (I.e. “But I’m not dead yet!”) It’s all about whether convection can refire in the next 6-12 hours at this point,
Despite the shear

Fred: It’s merely a flesh wound!

[InfernoFlameCat]

A monster in the making..

https://i.imgur.com/dztoPao.gif

Bruh that is not the center.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like I found the old center back over DR. It looks like it stalled and is washing out. The current one over the water to the North is definitely a reformation..... Can clearly see it form at sunset yesterday on satellite. Shear is supper strong over it for right now.... Not sure if we will see any strengthing today. Only takes one Hot Tower!

[cheezyWXguy]

It looks bad now, but the fact that there is a clearly identifiable llc now is an improvement over yesterday

[Evil Jeremy]

I *think* I'm seeing rotation in the Windward Passage...And an eddy may have been sput out of that area about an hour ago (look around 20.2N 74W)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Is that what's left of the MLC, maybe trying to work it's way back down?