ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

The swirl over the NW Yucatan could rotate NW and become the primary center over the next 12 hours. Could mean a "landfall" east of New Orleans, but nothing near the center. Low-end sheared TS at best with any 35kt winds in squalls offshore well east of the track.

I think it could, even over land the convection is getting pulled into it from the east and SE.

[Aric Dunn]

You can see the very clear low level cloud line streaming into that convection and then the NE Flow on the other side of the boundary... soooo assuming that convective burst maintains an initial LLC will likely develop somewhere along that boundary... where ever the convection is deepest and sustained.... add in that MLC vorticity lifting north and we should see something consolidate north/NNE of the models currently.

though because of the larger broad rotation there might be a short term swing to the WNW/NW once it develops as it consolidates.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

An elongated trough or very broad area of surface low pressure remains over the Bay of Campeche near the Mexican coast this morning. There has been little change in the organizational structure of 92L over the last 24 hours and the system remains fairly broad in nature and continues to interact with the landmasses of central America and Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue in association with this feature over the Bay of Campeche.

Global forecast models continue to insist that a broad surface low pressure system will begin to lift northward out of the southern Gulf of Mexico late on Thursday and into Friday and arrive along the NW Gulf coast late Friday night into Saturday morning. Shear values continue to look unfavorable for any significant development of this system, but a tropical depression or tropical storm is possible as the system nears the coast early on Saturday. Given the likely component of WSW/SW shear aloft over the tropical system combined with a drier air mass over TX entraining into the circulation, most of the rainfall impacts continue to look to be east of SE TX and focused over the central and eastern US Gulf coast. However, without any defined low level center having formed yet, there is still some uncertainty on exactly what the ultimate track of the surface low will be and that can changes some of the impacts some.

SE TX Impacts:
Main concerns will be coastal water levels on Friday into early Saturday with increasing swells and winds across our coastal waters. Circulation will likely move near/across our eastern waters Friday night with winds backing to the NE/ENE on Friday into early Saturday and increasing into the 25-30kt range. Seas will likely build into the 6-8 ft range offshore and some of this swell will reach the coast. Favorable NE wind direction combined with incoming swell will likely result in coastal water level rise on the order of 1-2 ft with total water level guidance showing 3-4 ft at high tides late Friday into Saturday. These levels are close to flooding thresholds on the Gulf facing beaches where wave run-up could cause some minor flooding at times of high tide.

Rain chances look to increase late Friday near the coast and spread slightly inland on Saturday, but there is likely to be a strong gradient between some rain and squalls and little to no rainfall as dry air wraps into the western side of the circulation. Will focus most of the activity near Galveston Bay and eastward and keep totals generally on the lighter side with the majority of the moisture passing to our east.

As the tropical system lifts NE away from SE TX late in the weekend into early next week, the trailing moisture plume may work into SE TX will increasing rain chances.

[tailgater]

My 2 cents, the broad center is just south of buoy 42055, void of convection for now and these vortices will continue to rotate around it until one deepens enough to take over when and where are very difficult to predict, yes likely north or northeast of center.

[cycloneye]

They are still tracking the one on the Mexican Coast.

AL, 92, 2021061612, , BEST, 0, 182N, 944W, 20, 1009, LO

[wxman57]

NHC needs to re-focus the invest farther north. It isn't going to form from something inland over Mexico now.

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

Sw portion is starting to Shift ENE. some west winds should begin to break past that boundary and fill that "VOID" soon.

[tailgater]

I’m wondering if we might see a PTC by tonight for somewhere along the NGom coast? Most likely just a rain maker but maybe a weak/mid level TS.

[wxman57]

Good discussion by Levi just put out. Exactly what I'm seeing. I think the NHC will be issuing a PTC advisory this afternoon. TS winds possible SE LA within 48 hrs by then. Landfall mid LA coast Friday night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN8U6jJ6dLI&t=410s

[Frank P]

This area hints like it has taken over as the dominant center of the system, from observing the long loop vis sat images… IMO. Hard to discern any significant low down off the coast of Mexico in the loops, my 2 cents

[eastcoastFL]

[crimi481]

Well - we need rain in SW Florida. It's on the way

[Frank P]

Actually the old low could have crossed Mexico south and looks to be developing on the Pacific side now.. or at least something is now trying to develop on the Pacific side on the coast of Mexico.. imo

[Aric Dunn]

The sudden development of NW to SE cloud lines in that void tells me the deep convection has something developing there finally.

wont be too much longer now.

[lrak]

my ocular analysis is betting on the new most western blob...lol Just east of Veracruz

The BOC buoy also has west winds in it?

[Frank P]

my ocular analysis is betting on the new most western blob...lol Just east of Veracruz

I was just looking at that, it has gotten more interesting in the past hour.. which one will win out… might be 50/50 at this point.. ha

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low
pressure area. This system will move little today and tonight, and
little if any development is expected during that time due to
interaction with land. However, the system should begin to move
northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form
by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the western
Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central
America and southern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rains
should also begin to affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast on
Friday. Please consult products from your local meteorological
service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[wxman57]

my ocular analysis is betting on the new most western blob...lol Just east of Veracruz

The BOC buoy also has west winds in it?

I don't think that's anything to be concerned with. It's on the west side of the upper low. The convection NW of Yucatan is where to focus.

[lrak]

my ocular analysis is betting on the new most western blob...lol Just east of Veracruz

The BOC buoy also has west winds in it?

I don't think that's anything to be concerned with. It's on the west side of the upper low. The convection NW of Yucatan is where to focus.

Well shoot wxman57, one of these days I'll guess right