ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

It will be on the Barbados radar soon so we will know if there is a low level circulation.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/RadarPr ... heApes=212

[AtlanticWind]

Up to 50/60

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday, and then move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around
the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could
be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains
and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in
association with an elongated low pressure system located over the
tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and
the Lesser Antilles. Although environmental conditions appear to be
only marginally conducive for development, this system could still
become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward
the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[toad strangler]

Up to 50/60

Should have a five day cherry tomorrow

[aspen]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located about 400 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday, and then move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around
the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could
be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward
Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains
and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in
association with an elongated low pressure system located over the
tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and
the Lesser Antilles. Although environmental conditions appear to be
only marginally conducive for development, this system could still
become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward
the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Seems like they’re getting ready to initialize PTC advisories, if necessary.

[SFLcane]

Up to 50/60

Should have a five day cherry tomorrow

If Stacy has the wheel I can surely see that. We could be on the end of the cone for some blustery showers.

[Spacecoast]

[Aric Dunn]

Good ASCAT pass. the center is pretty much right where I had it pinned earlier. now essentially under the new burst to the south.

models will be adjusting. this new burst will likely tighten things up. a tad elongated. but better

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/zKHr1pmzhGQ[/youtube]

[ouragans]

Invest 94L
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 09, 2021:

Location: 12.6°N 55.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

[Blown Away]

Good ASCAT pass. the center is pretty much right where I had it pinned earlier. now essentially under the new burst to the south.

models will be adjusting. this new burst will likely tighten things up. a tad elongated. but better

https://i.ibb.co/cLKDbxn/Capture.png

Does any S adjustments significantly increase 94L direct impact on Hispaniola?

[Aric Dunn]

Good ASCAT pass. the center is pretty much right where I had it pinned earlier. now essentially under the new burst to the south.

models will be adjusting. this new burst will likely tighten things up. a tad elongated. but better

https://i.ibb.co/cLKDbxn/Capture.png

Does any S adjustments significantly increase 94L direct impact on Hispaniola?

the HWRF is the southern most model. but it still has a wnw track that was supposed to have already started.. the break in the ridge is not supposed to be until around longitude of florida. so going south of hispaniola is possible.

[AtlanticWind]

Good ASCAT pass. the center is pretty much right where I had it pinned earlier. now essentially under the new burst to the south.

models will be adjusting. this new burst will likely tighten things up. a tad elongated. but better

https://i.ibb.co/cLKDbxn/Capture.png

Very elongated, with weak circulation atm.

I think if this forms , it could be almost anywhere along that axis.

[Aric Dunn]

Good ASCAT pass. the center is pretty much right where I had it pinned earlier. now essentially under the new burst to the south.

models will be adjusting. this new burst will likely tighten things up. a tad elongated. but better

https://i.ibb.co/cLKDbxn/Capture.png

Very elongated, with weak circulation atm.

I think if this forms , it could be almost anywhere along that axis.

follow convection.. extrap from earlier visible. its riding 12n. pretty much under current convective burst

[AtlanticWind]

I think if these goes on south side of the modeling it will interact with Hispanola and dissipate.
I dont see it going far enough south to avoid that fate.
Only chance it survives if it gets a little north of the big island. JMO.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1424529123565780992

[Sciencerocks]

[SFLcane]

00z models now takes it through entire island chain.

Folks don’t loose sleep over this gonna be along season.

[Aric Dunn]

updated ASCAT. besides some ambiguities from being on the edge... it is pretty clear the llc is consolidated around 12N near or likely now under this current burst.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is the previous ASCAT with Ambiguities removed showing less elongation... this also compares the euro model ( the green arrows) to observed..

models will be adjusting come 6z.