ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
The GFS was the eastern most model for several days, but is now coming into agreement with the other models. If the GFS holds with a more western solution for 18Z and 0Z runs Nicholas will almost certainly make landfall somewhere along the Texas coast and not Cameron Parish like the GFS has been suggesting.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
If you discount the operational GFS most of the models have been pretty consistent on a track towards the middle or upper Texas coast for the past couple of days now.And now it seems the operational is finally agreeing.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
The HMON is not an unreasonable run.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
12z HWRF the strongest run so far on Nicholas, close to Cat 2 on this run.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
Leave it to the HWRF to make a Hurricane out of this. Could be right, but even if it is I'm done giving it credit for anything more than a somewhat educated guess.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
NDG wrote:12z HWRF the strongest run so far on Nicholas, close to Cat 2 on this run.
Doing what the HWRF does best.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
This run is too strong with Nicholas in the short term (50-55 kt by 5pm and 1000mb later tonight), making its 973mb landfall intensity super unlikely. However, it does show shear starting to kick in by 06z Tuesday; the simulated IR structure is very squashed on the west side and convection is blown off the LLC by the time it makes landfall later in the day.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
12Z Euro into the border
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
The Euro is about to throw a wrench in the current forecast. At 48 hours, it has it located in South/South Central Texas, east of Cotulla.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
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Hurricane Mike
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
The HMON simulated radar shows alot of rain on the right-side near Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
Euro has a west bias I am still thinking it will be close to what the NHC has right now don't think it will be as far west as the euro thinks.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
15 to 20 inches for Houston metro seems pretty reasonable if it comes in to the west of the city.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
And of course the 12z Euro had to throw in a monkey wrench to the consensus that we had a couple of hours ago, lol.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
Teban54 wrote:SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days...
Yep. Right on top of Austin.
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Clearcloudz
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Texashawk
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
Getting some serious Harvey vibes here. Even if the bullseye is off, the fact that the EURO is sniffing out 60+ inches of rain is very sobering to me.
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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
SoupBone wrote:Teban54 wrote:SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days...
Yep. Right on top of Austin.
I’m not a fan of the 12z Euro run.
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I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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