ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
The GFS was the eastern most model for several days, but is now coming into agreement with the other models. If the GFS holds with a more western solution for 18Z and 0Z runs Nicholas will almost certainly make landfall somewhere along the Texas coast and not Cameron Parish like the GFS has been suggesting.
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wxman22
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
If you discount the operational GFS most of the models have been pretty consistent on a track towards the middle or upper Texas coast for the past couple of days now.And now it seems the operational is finally agreeing.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
The HMON is not an unreasonable run.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
12z HWRF the strongest run so far on Nicholas, close to Cat 2 on this run.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
Leave it to the HWRF to make a Hurricane out of this. Could be right, but even if it is I'm done giving it credit for anything more than a somewhat educated guess.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
NDG wrote:12z HWRF the strongest run so far on Nicholas, close to Cat 2 on this run.
Doing what the HWRF does best.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
This run is too strong with Nicholas in the short term (50-55 kt by 5pm and 1000mb later tonight), making its 973mb landfall intensity super unlikely. However, it does show shear starting to kick in by 06z Tuesday; the simulated IR structure is very squashed on the west side and convection is blown off the LLC by the time it makes landfall later in the day.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
12Z Euro into the border
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
The Euro is about to throw a wrench in the current forecast. At 48 hours, it has it located in South/South Central Texas, east of Cotulla.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
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Hurricane Mike
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
The HMON simulated radar shows alot of rain on the right-side near Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
Euro has a west bias I am still thinking it will be close to what the NHC has right now don't think it will be as far west as the euro thinks.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
15 to 20 inches for Houston metro seems pretty reasonable if it comes in to the west of the city.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days...
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
And of course the 12z Euro had to throw in a monkey wrench to the consensus that we had a couple of hours ago, lol.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
Teban54 wrote:SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days...
Yep. Right on top of Austin.
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Clearcloudz
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Texashawk
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
Getting some serious Harvey vibes here. Even if the bullseye is off, the fact that the EURO is sniffing out 60+ inches of rain is very sobering to me.
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Portastorm
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models
SoupBone wrote:Teban54 wrote:SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days...
Yep. Right on top of Austin.
I’m not a fan of the 12z Euro run.
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