ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

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IcyTundra
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#121 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:11 am

The GFS was the eastern most model for several days, but is now coming into agreement with the other models. If the GFS holds with a more western solution for 18Z and 0Z runs Nicholas will almost certainly make landfall somewhere along the Texas coast and not Cameron Parish like the GFS has been suggesting.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#122 Postby wxman22 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 11:34 am

If you discount the operational GFS most of the models have been pretty consistent on a track towards the middle or upper Texas coast for the past couple of days now.And now it seems the operational is finally agreeing.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#123 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:09 pm

The HMON is not an unreasonable run.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#124 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:19 pm

12z HWRF the strongest run so far on Nicholas, close to Cat 2 on this run.

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#125 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:21 pm

Leave it to the HWRF to make a Hurricane out of this. Could be right, but even if it is I'm done giving it credit for anything more than a somewhat educated guess.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#126 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:24 pm

NDG wrote:12z HWRF the strongest run so far on Nicholas, close to Cat 2 on this run.




Doing what the HWRF does best. :lol:
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#127 Postby aspen » Sun Sep 12, 2021 12:29 pm

This run is too strong with Nicholas in the short term (50-55 kt by 5pm and 1000mb later tonight), making its 973mb landfall intensity super unlikely. However, it does show shear starting to kick in by 06z Tuesday; the simulated IR structure is very squashed on the west side and convection is blown off the LLC by the time it makes landfall later in the day.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#128 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:03 pm

12Z Euro into the border

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#129 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:03 pm

The Euro is about to throw a wrench in the current forecast. At 48 hours, it has it located in South/South Central Texas, east of Cotulla.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#130 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:07 pm

At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#131 Postby Hurricane Mike » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:09 pm

The HMON simulated radar shows alot of rain on the right-side near Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#132 Postby IcyTundra » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:11 pm

Euro has a west bias I am still thinking it will be close to what the NHC has right now don't think it will be as far west as the euro thinks.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#133 Postby funster » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:12 pm

15 to 20 inches for Houston metro seems pretty reasonable if it comes in to the west of the city.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#134 Postby Teban54 » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:27 pm

SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.

And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days... :double:
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#135 Postby NDG » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:27 pm

And of course the 12z Euro had to throw in a monkey wrench to the consensus that we had a couple of hours ago, lol.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#136 Postby SoupBone » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:28 pm

Teban54 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.

And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days... :double:



Yep. Right on top of Austin.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#137 Postby Clearcloudz » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:34 pm

WOW NO WORDS 61 INCHES OF RAIN MAX RAINFALL

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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#138 Postby HoustonFrog » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:36 pm

Weird Euro run after some consistency.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#139 Postby Texashawk » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:37 pm

Clearcloudz wrote:WOW NO WORDS 61 INCHES OF RAIN MAX RAINFALL

https://i.imgur.com/gaV44vQ.png


Getting some serious Harvey vibes here. Even if the bullseye is off, the fact that the EURO is sniffing out 60+ inches of rain is very sobering to me.
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Re: ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

#140 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:38 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Teban54 wrote:
SoupBone wrote:At 60 hours, it's basically sitting on top of San Antonio.

And the Euro has it stalling for at least 3 days... :double:



Yep. Right on top of Austin.


I’m not a fan of the 12z Euro run.
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