ATL: PETER - Remnants - Discussion

[AlphaToOmega]

I bet those who were calling for an OTS storm are eating every word they said! Crows are in very high demand right now.

[ElectricStorm]

I bet those who were calling for an OTS storm are eating every word they said! Crows are in very high demand right now.

Because of 1 model run? Nah pretty sure we all know that anything is possible lol

[InfernoFlameCat]

I bet those who were calling for an OTS storm are eating every word they said! Crows are in very high demand right now.

Careful, you might become a crow yourself!

[toad strangler]

I bet those who were calling for an OTS storm are eating every word they said! Crows are in very high demand right now.

Nah no crow but was it WAY WAY WAY WAY WAY too early to be posting the fishing emoji? Absolutely. Ya think some who have been around for so many years would know better. So here we are 48 plus hours later with no certain track or strength.

[AnnularCane]

This is one fascinating invest. At this point it seems like just about anything and everything could potentially happen to this little thing. Going to be interesting to see what actually does happen.

[tomatkins]

This is one fascinating invest. At this point it seems like just about anything and everything could potentially happen to this little thing. Going to be interesting to see what actually does happen.

Yes, compare the spread on Larry to the ensemble and intermodel spread on this one.

[abajan]

8 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days. This system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[gatorcane]

Very much struggling at the moment:

Hard to believe the Euro had this on the way to being a hurricane at this point in some model runs several days back.

[toad strangler]

Very much struggling at the moment:

Hard to believe the Euro had this on the way to being a hurricane at this point in some model runs several days back.

https://i.postimg.cc/cJK84p3m/goes16-ir-95-L-202109152205.gif

I don't find it hard to believe at all. The Euro has been awful with storm genesis on a whole for quite a long time now. All the models have been awful with G.

[toad strangler]

Solid pros are at a loss. It's a big bag of WHO THE HELL KNOWS.

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1438302312938852357

[grapealcoholic]

HWRF is showing almost no convection firing tonight. Not a very hard metric to beat

[Nimbus]

This is one fascinating invest. At this point it seems like just about anything and everything could potentially happen to this little thing. Going to be interesting to see what actually does happen.

GFS has this going south of the equator which I haven't seen very often.
The interpolated low level wind products may have overdone the established circulation depictions if not it is just a weak depression moving west with 80% chance of being called. Weak and west track forecast is not what we want to see since it could spin up before the Caribbean this time of year.

[aspen]

At least it’s spinning. Lol.

This is probably the most complicated and frustrating invest since Hermine/99L.

[grapealcoholic]

All of the vorticity is south of 10N

[grapealcoholic]

Need the easterly shear to let up -- which seems to happen near 40W. Easterly shear is *far* more detrimental to a storm than westerly because dry air (which is usually north of a storm) gets advected into the downshear vortex

[Stormybajan]

Jeez..and here I thought Monday night in 48 hours we would have much clearer picture on what 95L would do and where it would track, now its basically devoid of convection .
Looks like 95L needs another 48hours is needed friday night when it reaches 50W when its make, or break time.

[zzh]

[Sciencerocks]

[CyclonicFury]

Wouldn't be surprised if NHC starts decreasing the chances a bit soon.

[Blinhart]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/272/XWaVay.gif

Almost looks like 3 different investments there, one on the Western edge of the screen, and then a north and south blob.