ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[SteveM]

When, roughly, is it expected to make landfall in Cuba?

[galaxy401]

When, roughly, is it expected to make landfall in Cuba?

Probably in just a couple hours. It's moving at a decent clip so it's going to be in the Gulf already by sunset.

[BeaumontBen]

I am currently in Beaumont Texas. Are there any chances of this moving more west? I noticed that some models are still showing a small chance of that happening.

[PavelGaborik]

I'm starting to wonder if a Cat 4 is possible at this point! Crazy!!!!!!

I would be shocked if Ida doesn't become at least a category 4 Hurricane.

[catskillfire51]

I am currently in Beaumont Texas. Are there any chances of this moving more west? I noticed that some models are still showing a small chance of that happening.

You are in the cone of uncertainty, so until you’re out of that then there is a chance.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, Ida is deepening much more rapidly than expected. I would think if anything she tracks more east in the forecast cone stepping into the ridge more than a weaker system.

This looks dire for New Orleans in my opinion.

[Iceresistance]

She's going pinhole over the Isle of Youth? (Also note more Gravity waves)

[Senobia]

I am currently in Beaumont Texas. Are there any chances of this moving more west? I noticed that some models are still showing a small chance of that happening.

You are in the cone of uncertainty, so until you’re out of that then there is a chance.

Beaumont isn't in the cone, but we're close. Local mets said, as of a couple of hours ago, we can expect 30-50mph wind gusts and 3in of rain.

Subject to change, yes.
But that's the latest news.

[tolakram]

sandwich view, since visible is over saturated at the moment.

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/7y-lpFQ-XLs[/youtube]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

New Orleans mayor calling for evacuations for everyone outside the levee system.

[ThetaE]

I'm starting to wonder if a Cat 4 is possible at this point! Crazy!!!!!!

Cat 4 was possible yesterday. Cat 5 is possible as of today.

Laura entered the Gulf around the same place as Ida will, had a good environment, spent 2 days in the Gulf, but entered as a moderate TS with a core constantly interrupted by land interaction. Ida is poised to enter in the same location with equally good environment, spend 2 days and change in the Gulf, and is entering as a Cat 1 with a proto-eyewall.

Laura made it to a high-end Cat 4, so it's totally reasonable to think Ida can go higher.

[grapealcoholic]

Beautiful CDO

[Iceresistance]

sandwich view, since visible is over saturated at the moment.

https://imgur.com/vRFF8tA

I do believe that Ida has made landfall over the Isle of Youth based on the Satellite imagery . . .

[aspen]

Jeez I was only gone for an hour and a half, and it’s already a hurricane. This is just looking more ominous for the Gulf.

[ThetaE]

sandwich view, since visible is over saturated at the moment.

https://imgur.com/vRFF8tA

I do believe that Ida has made landfall over the Isle of Youth . . .

Yup, looks that way on radar. Pretty large wobble west, after the earlier east deviation from the forecasted track.

[supercane4867]

If Ida develops an inner core too quickly, it could be a hinderance to intensification past Cuba, as Ida's old inner core could be in a war with the inner one before reaching the loop current.

The most favorable condition could allow a seamless eyewall meld within a short span of time. I'm afraid we might see this kind of thing with Ida, which only happens in historic powerful cyclones. I mean just look at the low VWS and very high OHC in the gulf, it's like history is already being made here.

Could Ida have the potential to become the 2nd ever GoM storm to have a pressure below 900 MB? (Rita in 2005 was 895 MB)

Not likely unless it manages to develop an extreme pinhole eye. Rita had one of the most favorable setup in the history of entire basin, entering the Gulf thru the Florida Straits while avoiding any landmass and slowly moving over the Gulf Stream. I think we may not see another Rita in our lifetimes.

[Hurrilurker]

Certainly looking like a proper hurricane now, all that messiness from yesterday is gone (like, you can actually tell where the center is now without guessing). Not going to be surprised to see an eye pop very shortly after it exits Cuba. I won't even be shocked if we see one before it gets to Cuba mainland.

Need more recon!!

[SconnieCane]

I'm starting to wonder if a Cat 4 is possible at this point! Crazy!!!!!!

Cat 4 was possible yesterday. Cat 5 is possible as of today.

Don't think I've seen you be bullish on an Atlantic storm's intensity yet this year. Almost as eye-opening as when Wxman57 is.

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[catskillfire51]

I am currently in Beaumont Texas. Are there any chances of this moving more west? I noticed that some models are still showing a small chance of that happening.

You are in the cone of uncertainty, so until you’re out of that then there is a chance.

Beaumont isn't in the cone, but we're close. Local mets said, as of a couple of hours ago, we can expect 30-50mph wind gusts and 3in of rain.

Subject to change, yes.
But that's the latest news.

You’re right, apologies. The app I use hasn’t updated yet for some reason.