ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Raw T dropped to 5.5

ARCHER positioning no longer finding the eye, since Sam is well northeast of forecast. Does not matter much with the plane inbound.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Raw T dropped to 5.5

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1442207867176513537

[kevin]

I'm back and Sam has degraded a bit on IR. However, it still looks very healthy and looking at the floater it seems the break in the SSW region is slowly filling in again. A while ago all we wanted was for recon to arrive asap, but now I think it's good that it's still got 2 hours to go since it'll give Sam time to repair its Wring.

[kevin]

Raw T dropped to 5.5

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1442207867176513537

Lol that has to be the worst eye location estimate I've ever seen .

[Zonacane]

Not sure Sam is having any actual issues. It could just be a satellite issue

[skyline385]

Raw T dropped to 5.5

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1442207867176513537

Looks like it messed up again, dropped Raw T to 5.0

[pgoss11]

Raw T dropped to 5.5

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1442207867176513537

Looks like it messed up again, dropped Raw T to 5.0

https://i.imgur.com/a8AKesN.png

Is is possible Sam is doing a loop?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Notice how calm the winds are where the Hurricane hunters are flying! 1 knot consistently.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1442207867176513537

Looks like it messed up again, dropped Raw T to 5.0

https://i.imgur.com/a8AKesN.png

Is is possible Sam is doing a loop?

That's what I was thinking too

[cycloneye]

Dont worry, wait for the plane as it will nail the dead center of it.

[kevin]

I'm not sure if what we're seeing on IR is actual degradation, might indeed be some satellite artifacts due to the slanted view. Visible and sandwich still look picture-perfect.

[ThetaE]

Something to keep in mind since Sam appears to be drifting well right of track and wobbling/moving slowly: even if SSTs/OHC appear lower on such a trajectory, there is actually a sizable mixed layer that would help buffer upwelling problems.

 https://twitter.com/DrKimWood/status/1442218359563636742

[bob rulz]

There's no sign of an EWRC yet right? I'm becoming more optimistic that recon will not miss the peak. Just based on eye test I would say this is 135kt at minimum, but I wouldn't be shocked if recon finds a cat 5.

[skyline385]

There's no sign of an EWRC yet right? I'm becoming more optimistic that recon will not miss the peak. Just based on eye test I would say this is 135kt at minimum, but I wouldn't be shocked if recon finds a cat 5.

No signs of an outer eyewall from the passes so far, just some bands which eventually will wrap around but not yet...

[kevin]

There's no sign of an EWRC yet right? I'm becoming more optimistic that recon will not miss the peak. Just based on eye test I would say this is 135kt at minimum, but I wouldn't be shocked if recon finds a cat 5.

Indeed an EWRC seems (hoping I don't jinx it yet) very unlikely before recon arrives since there's no sign of it whatsoever right now. IR is fluctuating a bit, but already seems to be recovering. Technically, Sam might've looked a bit better earlier today but I still think it's currently stronger than yesterday (so also 135 kt minimum for me).

[aspen]

Wow, the 5pm discussion actually notes the possibility of Sam becoming a Cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, the 5pm discussion actually notes the possibility of Sam becoming a Cat 5.

Latto is pretty bullish. Remember he is why Lorenzo was upgraded into a Category 5.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Looks like the poorly timed recon missions that have plagued the past couple of years is likely to continue.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1442227846513037315

[Teban54]

Without any prior knowledge you might think this indicates an EWRC, although in this case it's probably just visual:

[SconnieCane]

That 5 PM advisory though...five straight days AOA 110kt on top of what has already occurred. Hello ACE.