ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

The VERY last couple vis frames appear to show some towers firing up very near the center. Will see if anything comes of
It

[Nuno]

The VERY last couple vis frames appear to show some towers firing up very near the center. Will see if anything comes of
It

We shall see. It is too early. No it won't be the 1935 Labor Day storm, but we've seen these tightly wound storms blow up in these waters as they traverse the Bahamas. Many of you here far too intelligent to declare this dead. If shear keeps lessening and it manages to consolidate it'll strengthen quite quickly before the Keys. Wouldn't rule out 60 kt before then.

[tolakram]

Fred has lost floater status. Here's a localized view from COD:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Turks_and_Caicos-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Woofde]

Fredo doesn't really look like a recovering storm to me. Minimal convection firing not really close to the center. There is definitely some spin there but I wouldn't say the circulation is overly tight or impressive. Models aren't really doing anything with this until it nears the Florida panhandle. Then it looks like some weak re-generation is possible.

Edit-meant panhandle not peninsula.

It’s dealing with some shear and Cuba is probably inhibiting some inflow. It’s not supposed to really restrengthen until tomorrow evening as it gets near the keys according to the NHC

It's low level inflow is actually benefitting from the strong southerly fetch of moist air coming up from the Windward Passage at the moment. No doubt though, Cuba is inhibiting inflow and as Naked Fred continues to advance WNW'ward, away from the Windward Passage it's inflow should become further starved tonight.

As for the regeneration "will it- won't it" game? Meh... Sure, NHC might well hoist a new PTC back on Fred just in case but will it really shake anybody's world if this regenerates back to a minimal TS just south of the Keys verses becoming a more vigorous TD? What DOES interest me is "the potential" of areas receiving 5"-8" (or more) of rain and the potential of flooding. I'm not betting the farm on that happening yet but S. Florida does have a history of massive precip events as a result of weak-sister TD''s & TS's . Otherwise, if I weren't from Florida I'd probably be more interested in watching molasses drip from a spoon then counting rising hot-towers over 100 miles away from a fully undressed Tropical Depression

The concern is not for Southern Florida, barring an incredibly unlikely bout of fast intensification South Florida is not likely to see any wind threat. The place where it is possible to see a real wind threat is the Panhandle. If Fred manages to get to a minimal TS around the time it is near the Keys, then it could have ample time and most likely better conditions to strengthen. The water is simply too warm in the Gulf to dismiss any circulation. We have seen many times before that a storm blows in less than 24 hours. Fred may have more than 48 hours of semi-solid atmospheric conditions over 30-31C SSTs if he stays to the west of the cone. That is where the potential concern lies.

[AtlanticWind]

Tropical storm watches for the keys

And the west coast

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/UqKAXsXEUjY[/youtube]

[ronjon]

Actually Fred looks better than I thought it would. Clear vigorous circulation center and convection building on the east side. If the euro forecast of 5-10 kts of shear materializes, and Fred slows down, think regeneration into a weak tropical storm is likely in the Florida straits with continued gradual strengthening in the GOM. All this will take time so doubtful it will ever achieve hurricane status.

[tropicwatch]

Fred has lost floater status. Here's a localized view from COD:

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Turks_and_Caicos-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The NESDIS floater is still up but up to an hour delay.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL062021/13/GOES16-AL062021-13-1000x1000.gif?hash=15158

[AdamFirst]

There is a spin in the convection to the east of the low level center. Is that our mid level center telling our LLC to join it?

[Michele B]

One of the highest pressures I've seen for a TD
06L FRED 210812 1800 21.1N 75.0W ATL 30 1014

Didn’t Elsa have pressure that high at about the same place?

[alienstorm]

RF almost there...big blow just east of center

[ChrisH-UK]

The low level circulation is now under some convective development just off the coast of Cuba.

GOES-16 Proxy Visible + Clean IR Longwave.
Source - https://col.st/7GcTP

[Woofde]

If this convection sticks then Fred is way ahead of schedule. It's up to shear to kill it. There is very little dry air in the mid levels.

[NDG]

Fred's LLC has barely moved all day, as if waiting for the MLC to catch up to it.

[NDG]

NOAA recon is flying at 11K+ feet, so I don't think this is the LLC which appears to be a little further west. Tilted CoC.

[Jr0d]

Literally as I was writing my post a few hours ago about how poorly Fred was looking, some convection started building.

Still a mess of a system but if this convection can sustain itself over night, Fred will be back to a tropical storm by tomorrow morning.

I am currently under a tropical storm watch and will be securing my boat tomorrow. Hoping this passes north of Key West for wind direction concerns.

From past experience, a strengthening tropical storm brings more intense gusts than a weakening hurricane.

It appears Fred will find somewhat favorable conditions when he is over the Florida Straits.

[TallyTracker]

With convection returning, it looks to me like Fred’s gonna survive. The question is, what is Fred gonna do once reaching the Gulf? (Assuming of course the system doesn’t track straight up the middle of the FL peninsula like Ernesto ‘06)

[AutoPenalti]

If this is stalled it will only have more time over water. How far away it can get to Cuba would be the wild card.

[tailgater]

Looks like the old CoC is getting sucked/stretched into that cluster of hot towers

[NDG]

Dropsonde near LLC, pressure of 1012 mb.