ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

a storm recurving over florida seems like something that should be on the docket more frequently than it has in recent decades. I've noticed the latter portion of the forecast keeps tilting right...this is the 2nd advisory where the black line tracks east of my casa..

This is a less than optimal scenario. While the west coast will take a the brunt and any surge the “bad side” will rake the entire east coast of the state as well. Ugly set up if it plays out. Also when these things make their turn they slow down quite a bit so it could mean some serious rain for much of the state.

I'm not sold on this being a big deal for the state. we'll see. I'd be a whole lot more concerned if it were peak season and I suspect that's the case for many people. It is insanely wet in my region so any wind wind working the saturated ground probably poses an outsized risk and any rain will translate to pure runoff so it's definitely something to keep tabs on.

[tolakram]

Elsa developed into a well-stacked cane' among a litany of supposed negative factors in the MDR in July and some of y'all are still gonna doubt this storm?

It's a conversation, and the NHC said recon reported it's not that well stacked. I think most of us are waiting and watching to see what happens.

[StPeteMike]

NDG, I think it’s time the NHC let’s it go on the Euro (Frozen pun intended). It has Elsa as an open wave later tonight, that’s simply not going to be the case. If NHC is being conservative because of the Euro, then it would make me add another 15/20 mph on the later forecast strengths.

[ObsessedMiami]

This is NOT what the rescue/recovery effort in Surfside needs

[AutoPenalti]

NDG, I think it’s time the NHC let’s it go on the Euro (Frozen pun intended). It has Elsa as an open wave later tonight, that’s simply not going to be the case. If NHC is being conservative because of the Euro, then it would make me add another 15/20 mph on the later forecast strengths.

I don't think they are using the Euro for anything else other than viewing the environment around Elsa.

[InfernoFlameCat]

She still has some organizing to do. However, When she does, it’s going to absolutely explode. So let’s hope it does not stack.

[BYG Jacob]

Elsa developed into a well-stacked cane' among a litany of supposed negative factors in the MDR in July and some of y'all are still gonna doubt this storm?

It's a conversation, and the NHC said recon reported it's not that well stacked. I think most of us are waiting and watching to see what happens.

Recon had exceptional issues finding the eye this morning, we did not get accurate data. My guess is y'all are leaning on the Euro, even though the past 2 seasons have been an epic fail for the "king".

[psyclone]

Elsa developed into a well-stacked cane' among a litany of supposed negative factors in the MDR in July and some of y'all are still gonna doubt this storm?

All else being equal it seems logical to doubt an anomalous storm. If something shouldn't be there to begin with it probably means there are greater than average risks to the storm's integrity. quick changes in intensity are a two way street and some models degenerate the storm. That is certainly one of many options.

[Sciencerocks]

Satellite and radar suggest a well oiled machine.

[BYG Jacob]

Elsa developed into a well-stacked cane' among a litany of supposed negative factors in the MDR in July and some of y'all are still gonna doubt this storm?

All else being equal it seems logical to doubt an anomalous storm. If something shouldn't be there to begin with it probably means there are greater than average risks to the storm's integrity. quick changes in intensity are a two way street and some models degenerate the storm. That is certainly one of many options.

If Elsa degenerates into a wave like the Euro suggests I will eat my xbox.

[NDG]

[Iceresistance]

Elsa developed into a well-stacked cane' among a litany of supposed negative factors in the MDR in July and some of y'all are still gonna doubt this storm?

It's a conversation, and the NHC said recon reported it's not that well stacked. I think most of us are waiting and watching to see what happens.

Recon had exceptional issues finding the eye this morning, we did not get accurate data. My guess is y'all are leaning on the Euro, even though the pas 2 seasons have been an epic fail for the "king".

The Euro model also flopped this past winter as well

[Chemmers]

Seem like the gfs has been alot better in the recent years then the euro

[MGC]

Shear is low across the eastern Caribbean today and should remain low for the duration of Elsa's passage.....waters are warm with increasing ocean heat content south of Cuba. Doubt Elsa's high rate of motion is going to be an issue, other hurricanes traversing the same body of water at a similar speed have maintained or increased in intensity. Thus, I expect Elsa to continue to intensify as the hurricane approaches the Greater Antilles. Those of you in Florida need to start preparing for a TC......MGC

[psyclone]

Elsa developed into a well-stacked cane' among a litany of supposed negative factors in the MDR in July and some of y'all are still gonna doubt this storm?

All else being equal it seems logical to doubt an anomalous storm. If something shouldn't be there to begin with it probably means there are greater than average risks to the storm's integrity. quick changes in intensity are a two way street and some models degenerate the storm. That is certainly one of many options.

If Elsa degenerates into a wave like the Euro suggests I will eat my xbox.

I get what you're saying but a fast moving storm decoupling and degrading in the caribbean is certainly not unprecedented and that says nothing of potential entanglement with high terrain. I have no clue and nothing would surprise me. That's what makes storm watching so fascinating.

[AutoPenalti]

That GFS run is a little wonky. It didn't initialize properly and seems to have thrown out the whole run.

[MetsIslesNoles]

Seem like the gfs has been alot better in the recent years then the euro

Once it was upgraded it's been quite good. The Euro will get it together too. We're all spoiled. I'm amazed that these days many times we have a general idea of landfall 7 days out (ex Florida area, not Texas area) when 25-30 years ago it would have been, "Check this out on satellite and check back with us in a couple of days to see where it might head."

[BYG Jacob]

All else being equal it seems logical to doubt an anomalous storm. If something shouldn't be there to begin with it probably means there are greater than average risks to the storm's integrity. quick changes in intensity are a two way street and some models degenerate the storm. That is certainly one of many options.

If Elsa degenerates into a wave like the Euro suggests I will eat my xbox.

I get what you're saying but a fast moving storm decoupling and degrading in the caribbean is certainly not unprecedented and that says nothing of potential entanglement with high terrain. I have no clue and nothing would surprise me. That's what makes storm watching so fascinating.

Decoupling at this point would require an extraordinary amount of shear that isn't going to be there. A normal graveyard Caribbean would do the trick, and that isn't the case right now.

[MississippiWx]

I think it’s a guarantee Elsa won’t be opening up into a wave unless it has significant interaction with the Greater Antilles. Hurricanes do not open up into waves due to trade winds. The only thing limiting Elsa currently is the fast forward motion. This issue should abate slightly as it approaches the Central Caribbean. I think here is where we will see faster strengthening as long as it avoids land interaction.

[AutoPenalti]

Copied from the Models thread but this is the GFS compared to 06z