ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Almost positive that, as we figured, recon is going to miss Sam at its peak with an EWRC now occurring.

However, that does not mean Sam does not have another chance to hit Cat 5 in the future as conditions continue to appear good for intensification.

[aspen]

Recon is at 52.35W, while Sam’s eye is at ~50.50W. It should be at the center within 30-45 minutes. Buckle up everyone.

[kevin]

My excitement has died down a bit after Sam's degradation recently. I think that whatever they find, we can add ~10 kt to get the peak from a few hours ago. But I guess that's up to post-analysis. Hopefully we'll get another peak later during Sam's life as the models imply and perhaps the third time's the charm for recon. Still a very impressive system.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Big burst of convection is now wrapping around the center of Sam.

[Iceresistance]

Big burst of convection is now wrapping around the center of Sam.

What does the 1-Minute Imagery looking like? I'm content with the 10-Minute with WeatherNerds

And also, "Sam I am not giving up"

[Nuno]

So why didn't NHC call this a category 5 again?

[Yankee Corn Husker]

I could be totally off my rocker for suggesting such a thing so please shoot this message down if that is the case, but I don't think the NHC upgrades to Cat 5. unless it is an imminent threat. If you look through history what you notice is that nearly every category 5 has made landfall and all the storms that could have been category 5 but were never designated never hit land. I think the reason Lorenzo was upgraded was because that ship went down in it and they were looking for it. Again, I could be totally wrong but since Sam is posing no direct threat to land, why rush, why even bother....doesn't change anything at the end of the day. Still a powerful hurricane.

Edit: lack of data plays a hand, not saying NHC makes up the cat 5 intensity or designates a storm at that intensity just because it will make landfall without data to support it.

My understanding is that CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricanes that make landfall have their names retired. However, a CAT 5 does not need to make landfall, its name is automatically retired. Perhaps the NHC really likes the name "Sam"

Um... No and no. If a storm is destructive enough, it's name will be retired, no matter what category it is. If isn't destructive enough, it isn't retired, including Cat 5's

This is where I read, posted under "Category 5 : https://www.cyclostorm.com/articles/saffirsimpsonscale.html
"Category 5 – 137+ knots (157+ mph; 262+ km/h). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years."

[CyclonicFury]

So why didn't NHC call this a category 5 again?

To be fair, the Dvorak estimates we had did not support Category 5 intensity. SAB and TAFB both peaked at T6.5, and ADT peaked at T6.6.

[Homie J]

My understanding is that CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricanes that make landfall have their names retired. However, a CAT 5 does not need to make landfall, its name is automatically retired. Perhaps the NHC really likes the name "Sam"

Um... No and no. If a storm is destructive enough, it's name will be retired, no matter what category it is. If isn't destructive enough, it isn't retired, including Cat 5's

This is where I read, posted under "Category 5 : https://www.cyclostorm.com/articles/saffirsimpsonscale.html
"Category 5 – 137+ knots (157+ mph; 262+ km/h). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years."

Lorenzo would of been retired then.

[InfernoFlameCat]

My understanding is that CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricanes that make landfall have their names retired. However, a CAT 5 does not need to make landfall, its name is automatically retired. Perhaps the NHC really likes the name "Sam"

Um... No and no. If a storm is destructive enough, it's name will be retired, no matter what category it is. If isn't destructive enough, it isn't retired, including Cat 5's

This is where I read, posted under "Category 5 : https://www.cyclostorm.com/articles/saffirsimpsonscale.html
"Category 5 – 137+ knots (157+ mph; 262+ km/h). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years."

If a Cat 5 doesn't make landfall as a cat 5, (say Hurricane Bla makes landfall as a tropical depression a week after reaching 200mph in the open Atlantic), it probably won't get retired due to the fact that it peaked harmlessly away from land. This is an extreme example but you get the gist.

Back to Sam.

[Buck]

I feel like it has to be said a few times every year, but can everyone please remember that NHC are experts and just because we are on a forum and love history-making hurricanes, they *might* know more than us and might have good or even great reasons for not saying Sam is a Category 5 storm.

If the NHC was run by Storm2k, there would be 4x more Category 5 storms lol.

[Teban54]

Big burst of convection is now wrapping around the center of Sam.

Sam saw recon coming so he's trying his best to get his act together despite an EWRC.

[WiscoWx02]

My understanding is that CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricanes that make landfall have their names retired. However, a CAT 5 does not need to make landfall, its name is automatically retired. Perhaps the NHC really likes the name "Sam"

Um... No and no. If a storm is destructive enough, it's name will be retired, no matter what category it is. If isn't destructive enough, it isn't retired, including Cat 5's

This is where I read, posted under "Category 5 : https://www.cyclostorm.com/articles/saffirsimpsonscale.html
"Category 5 – 137+ knots (157+ mph; 262+ km/h). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years."

I should have clarified better, for some reason the last tidbit I tried to put into that did not upload. I wasn't talking anything damage related. The moral of what I was saying is that if it is not going to hit land, the NHC is not going to upgrade it to a category 5 based on satellite presentation. If, for whatever reason, there were to be an issue with data and satellite is all we had, then they would be more inclined to upgrade for urgency reason's. Cat 4 and 5 do the same damage but Cat 5 is more of an alarming statement. The JTWC upgrades cat 5's based on satellite all the time but the NHC never does. That's another way to look at what I am saying.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

My understanding is that CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricanes that make landfall have their names retired. However, a CAT 5 does not need to make landfall, its name is automatically retired. Perhaps the NHC really likes the name "Sam"

Um... No and no. If a storm is destructive enough, it's name will be retired, no matter what category it is. If isn't destructive enough, it isn't retired, including Cat 5's

This is where I read, posted under "Category 5 : https://www.cyclostorm.com/articles/saffirsimpsonscale.html
"Category 5 – 137+ knots (157+ mph; 262+ km/h). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years."

This is a pretty classic example of why it's important to verify information provided by third-party/unaffiliated/unverified sources. While every Cat 5 up until Emily had been retired, they were not retired for their meteorological significance but instead due to the damage and destruction they caused due to a landfall. Since Emily and Lorenzo did not quite meet this criteria (though Emily's may have more been because it was overshadowed by the rest of 2005), they were not retired.

Achieving Category 5 strength is not what generates a worthy reason for a storm to be retired in the North Atlantic.

[Fancy1001]

My understanding is that CAT 3 and CAT 4 hurricanes that make landfall have their names retired. However, a CAT 5 does not need to make landfall, its name is automatically retired. Perhaps the NHC really likes the name "Sam"

Um... No and no. If a storm is destructive enough, it's name will be retired, no matter what category it is. If isn't destructive enough, it isn't retired, including Cat 5's

This is where I read, posted under "Category 5 : https://www.cyclostorm.com/articles/saffirsimpsonscale.html
"Category 5 – 137+ knots (157+ mph; 262+ km/h). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years."

Your source is incorrect

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/hiWKNaN0DCA[/youtube]

[aspen]

The eye is indeed warming, but recon is about to FINALLY sample the core. The second pass will be very telling because it’ll show exactly how much Sam is weakening, which will allow for a peak intensity to be estimated by working back a few hours.

[WiscoWx02]

My excitement has died down a bit after Sam's degradation recently. I think that whatever they find, we can add ~10 kt to get the peak from a few hours ago. But I guess that's up to post-analysis. Hopefully we'll get another peak later during Sam's life as the models imply and perhaps the third time's the charm for recon. Still a very impressive system.

Same here. Not gonna find anything we don't know. More likely to find data to downgrade than upgrade at this point.

[tolakram]

Um... No and no. If a storm is destructive enough, it's name will be retired, no matter what category it is. If isn't destructive enough, it isn't retired, including Cat 5's

This is where I read, posted under "Category 5 : https://www.cyclostorm.com/articles/saffirsimpsonscale.html
"Category 5 – 137+ knots (157+ mph; 262+ km/h). Complete roof failure on most buildings. Many buildings destroyed, or structurally damaged beyond repair. Catastrophic storm surge damage. All Category 5 hurricanes’ names are retired, regardless whether they ever make landfall. In the Northwest Pacific, a typhoon that reaches 150 mph (241 km/hr) is called a Super Typhoon. The damage caused by a super typhoon is equivalent to a strong Category 4 or Category 5 hurricane, depending on how strong the typhoon is. Because conditions in the Northwest Pacific favor storm formation throughout most of the year, super typhoons are much more common than Category 5 hurricanes. Every year the Northwest Pacific sees several super typhoons, while the Atlantic might see one Category 5 every few years."

I should have clarified better, for some reason the last tidbit I tried to put into that did not upload. I wasn't talking anything damage related. The moral of what I was saying is that if it is not going to hit land, the NHC is not going to upgrade it to a category 5 based on satellite presentation. If, for whatever reason, there were to be an issue with data and satellite is all we had, then they would be more inclined to upgrade for urgency reason's. Cat 4 and 5 do the same damage but Cat 5 is more of an alarming statement. The JTWC upgrades cat 5's based on satellite all the time but the NHC never does. That's another way to look at what I am saying.

Nothing you said here is true. Please stop posting conjecture as fact.

[Iceresistance]

Deeper Convection is rebuilding in the Inner Eyewall, maybe Sam might avoid that EWRC yet again?