Looking at the current recon shows light winds at flight level and storm winds at the surface....this tells me the storm is not as organized as it appears on satellite....
Maybe the models are on to something with a weaker storm.
That said, the structure looks intense....I have a hard time believing Elsa will weaken significantly without land interaction.
ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Jr0d wrote:Looking at the current recon shows light winds at flight level and storm winds at the surface....this tells me the storm is not as organized as it appears on satellite....
Maybe the models are on to something with a weaker storm.
That said, the structure looks intense....I have a hard time believing Elsa will weaken significantly without land interaction.
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1411000696112128007
https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1411000059743834115
Last edited by Shell Mound on Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Going to look ugly in a few hours now that it’s in those shredding easterlies.
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HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Kat5 wrote:Going to look ugly in a few hours now that it’s in those shredding easterlies.
It's been in them my dude. That's why it is moving at 28mph.
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
I think it’s going to form an eye soon behind the current core. That big area of convection is going to be an eye wall while the current core is going to become the other half of the eye wall. Just my opinion though.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
The latest data set kind of invalidates what I just wrote. That well west of the center ..the next couple of data sets should get us close to the center....that will tell us a lot.
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Unflagged 70kt winds on the latest pass. 991.6 was the lowest pressure. Tough to find the exact center with such a small core moving so fast.
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BYG Jacob
Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Given the small Core and blazing forward speed, accurate recon data is going to be hard to come by until Elsa slows down.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Fri Jul 02, 2021 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
That is such a tiny core, making the storm very prone to rapid intensity swings, and making it an absolute pain to get the exact center with recon. Isn’t Elsa expected to slow down a bit tomorrow? That might help it intensify.
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
For those that were doubting if Elsa was indeed a hurricane.
NOAA2 0205A ELSA HDOB 13 20210702
163200 1329N 06151W 6962 03128 9971 +132 +043 249021 025 048 000 00
163230 1331N 06150W 6962 03120 9943 +148 +045 253021 024 046 000 00
163300 1333N 06149W 6949 03131 9920 +157 +046 210019 023 038 001 00
163330 1335N 06148W 6955 03112 9916 +155 +048 168019 029 054 002 00
163400 1336N 06146W 6950 03123 9950 +127 +050 150046 057 077 008 03
163430 1338N 06145W 6948 03130 9982 +107 +052 139070 079 046 063 00
163500 1340N 06144W 6870 03239 0004 +098 +051 125062 063 071 023 00
163530 1342N 06144W 6902 03214 0020 +101 +051 127058 059 070 019 00
163600 1345N 06143W 6962 03154 0011 +120 +051 120048 058 067 014 00
163630 1347N 06142W 6963 03157 0012 +124 +047 124054 059 069 004 00
163700 1349N 06141W 6960 03166 0017 +125 +044 125059 059 069 003 00
163730 1351N 06141W 6950 03181 0028 +118 +040 124056 057 067 003 00
163800 1353N 06140W 6952 03183 0045 +108 +036 127056 057 064 005 00
163830 1355N 06139W 6931 03208 0054 +103 +034 126058 059 063 006 00
163900 1357N 06138W 6952 03188 0067 +098 +033 125056 056 064 005 00
163930 1359N 06138W 6949 03198 0068 +099 +033 119057 058 063 006 00
164000 1401N 06137W 6960 03188 0081 +091 +033 121058 063 062 006 00
164030 1403N 06136W 6951 03195 0074 +096 +032 114067 067 060 006 00
164100 1405N 06135W 6956 03194 0077 +097 +031 112068 070 059 006 00
164130 1407N 06135W 6954 03196 0071 +102 +030 112074 075 059 003 00
NOAA2 0205A ELSA HDOB 13 20210702
163200 1329N 06151W 6962 03128 9971 +132 +043 249021 025 048 000 00
163230 1331N 06150W 6962 03120 9943 +148 +045 253021 024 046 000 00
163300 1333N 06149W 6949 03131 9920 +157 +046 210019 023 038 001 00
163330 1335N 06148W 6955 03112 9916 +155 +048 168019 029 054 002 00
163400 1336N 06146W 6950 03123 9950 +127 +050 150046 057 077 008 03
163430 1338N 06145W 6948 03130 9982 +107 +052 139070 079 046 063 00
163500 1340N 06144W 6870 03239 0004 +098 +051 125062 063 071 023 00
163530 1342N 06144W 6902 03214 0020 +101 +051 127058 059 070 019 00
163600 1345N 06143W 6962 03154 0011 +120 +051 120048 058 067 014 00
163630 1347N 06142W 6963 03157 0012 +124 +047 124054 059 069 004 00
163700 1349N 06141W 6960 03166 0017 +125 +044 125059 059 069 003 00
163730 1351N 06141W 6950 03181 0028 +118 +040 124056 057 067 003 00
163800 1353N 06140W 6952 03183 0045 +108 +036 127056 057 064 005 00
163830 1355N 06139W 6931 03208 0054 +103 +034 126058 059 063 006 00
163900 1357N 06138W 6952 03188 0067 +098 +033 125056 056 064 005 00
163930 1359N 06138W 6949 03198 0068 +099 +033 119057 058 063 006 00
164000 1401N 06137W 6960 03188 0081 +091 +033 121058 063 062 006 00
164030 1403N 06136W 6951 03195 0074 +096 +032 114067 067 060 006 00
164100 1405N 06135W 6956 03194 0077 +097 +031 112068 070 059 006 00
164130 1407N 06135W 6954 03196 0071 +102 +030 112074 075 059 003 00
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InfernoFlameCat
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
I think that core is going to transform into an eye wall. Can y’all see the convection on IR wrapping around that moat behind the core? Maybe I am crazy.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
That's a solid pressure drop since the last mission. Looks to still be intensifying...
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Shell Mound
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:Given the small Core and blazing forward speed, accurate recon data is going to be hard to come by until Elsa slows down.
https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/1410984131207602180
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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
The best intensity estimate right now looks to be 70 kt.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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StPeteMike
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Bad meteorologist eyes guys, is the center below all the models?
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Guess what, this season is outpacing all of those now! This season is going to be insane. This is crazy, absolutely crazy that we are discussing the E storm in early July possibly, perhaps plausibly reaching major hurricane status. Blows my mind.
2020 had Edouard on July 4th . . .
Wasn’t named until very late on the 5th.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ELSA - Hurricane - Discussion
wx98 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Guess what, this season is outpacing all of those now! This season is going to be insane. This is crazy, absolutely crazy that we are discussing the E storm in early July possibly, perhaps plausibly reaching major hurricane status. Blows my mind.
2020 had Edouard on July 4th . . .
Wasn’t named until very late on the 5th.
Thanks, I knew it was in Early July, but don’t know exactly when.
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