ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[storminabox]

It almost seems like the scenario where the storm is weaker and more strung out would be worse, because it would produce heavy rainfall over a larger region.

[lrak]

Ok, going long on the blob west of the Yucatan.

[tolakram]

Ok, going long on the blob west of the Yucatan.

You folded just like that?

[cycloneye]

A little closer to that blob.

AL, 92, 2021061618, , BEST, 0, 187N, 940W, 20, 1009, LO

[lrak]

Ok, going long on the blob west of the Yucatan.

You folded just like that?

I laughed at that one. I'm still laughing....good one Sir

[Pearl River]

Irak folded like the Saints defense in a playoff game.

[lrak]

Irak folded like the Saints defense in a playoff game.

Saints? Who are they

the BOC buoy is interesting

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

[wxman57]

12Z Euro ensembles initialized 92L where the NHC put it, and the members promptly move across Mexico and develop it in the East Pac. It's focused on the wrong area.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL92

[Jr0d]

Actually the old low could have crossed Mexico south and looks to be developing on the Pacific side now.. or at least something is now trying to develop on the Pacific side on the coast of Mexico.. imo

It certainly looks like that low could develop on the Pacific side once over water, it will be a tiny storm if it does.

Tough to tell where the center of 92L is given it is still a broad low. I do suspect it will likely have multiple vortices and may never have a well defined center of circulation. It is almost impressively sloppy, I am doubtful it will be a depression today or tonight. However as one of the pros mentioned, it could be labeled a PTC later today. At least this will enable the the appropriate warnings to be issued.

It does not look like it will produce much surf, this will minimize the rip current, erosion and coastal flooding threat. Obviously it will be a major rain maker, so fresh water flooding, aside from isolated tornadoes, is the major threat.

I hope we get some rain from this here in Key West, we can use it since we have been in a drought since last fall.

[Kingarabian]

12Z Euro ensembles initialized 92L where the NHC put it, and the members promptly move across Mexico and develop it in the East Pac. It's focused on the wrong area.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL92

Could be a simultaneous mixture of a few members moving it across Mexico while future 94E begins to form in the EPAC.

[wxman57]

I think we'll see a TS develop in the East Pac as well. Tracks up the coast as per 92L EC ensembles.

[eastcoastFL]

[aspen]

This gyre is so broad with not a lot of time to consolidate into a storm in the Gulf, so I’m starting to wonder if maybe nothing comes out of this.

[wxman57]

This gyre is so broad with not a lot of time to consolidate into a storm in the Gulf, so I’m starting to wonder if maybe nothing comes out of this.

The place to look is NW of the Yucatan in the south-central Gulf.

[3090]

One forecast model develops a meso type low off the YP, and moving into SELA ahead of the tropical depression that is forecast to form in the BOC/SWGOM and then moving into SWLA/SCLA. Interesting setup coming.

[crimi481]

It appears the low center forming due north of YUC. Bands trying to fill in on E side

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 16 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with the broad low pressure area over
the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent land areas has become a little
better organized since yesterday. This system will move little
tonight, and little if any development is expected during that time
due to interaction with land. However, the low should begin to
move northward on Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Thursday or on Friday when the low moves across the
western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue
over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the
next few days. Heavy rains should also begin to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Please consult products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Frank P]

Hurricane center still sticking with the low center in the BOC and not the one north of the Yucatán peninsula.. they have never bought in on that particular area north of the YP as the main center of the system… which looks to me that the more northerly circulation is in the middle levels of the atmosphere, nevertheless it’s looks really disorganized this evening… if that indeed is the center in the BOC..

[SunnyThoughts]

Lets hope those who need some rain receive some, and those who don't need it get as little as possible. They are already giving out free sand here at local fire department ( byob) bring your own bags, and shovel.

[aspen]

Lots of convection blossoming over the Yucatán as the sun sets. Could this impact where the LLC of a potential TC consolidates even though most of it is over land?