ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

2 pm: 991 mb/75 kt

[galaxy401]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
200 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA STRENGTHENS MORE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 62.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF ST. VINCENT
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

[captainbarbossa19]

Hoping that Elsa stops testing her limits and dies, but it would be weird if she hit the Orlando area. It would be like Elsa saying, "write me another story Disney!"

[Iceresistance]

Elsa is getting stronger still!

Location: 13.7°N 62.5°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

This is one of the fastest moving hurricanes I’ve ever seen in July!

[aspen]

With such a tiny core, assuming that it doesn’t suddenly get destroyed like Delta, I could see Elsa making a run for MH intensity within the next 24-36 hours. However, it’s too early to say if Elsa will safely stay between the islands, or how much of an impact they would have (like blocking inflow or outflow). The 12z HWRF with a mid 950s Cat 4 is probably the uppermost intensity limit.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Elsa is getting stronger still!

Location: 13.7°N 62.5°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

This is one of the fastest moving hurricanes I’ve ever seen in July!

Probably one of the fastest you will see in this part of the world anytime. Usually the Atlantic racers are in the mid-latitudes.

[StPeteMike]

How likely is the ridge supposed to be intact a little longer than expected like the NAM has forecasted?

[InfernoFlameCat]

I wonder why the nhc forecasts little change in intensity. Thoughts? Personally I disagree but they are the professionals.

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder why the nhc forecasts little change in intensity. Thoughts? Personally I disagree but they are the professionals.

They always follow a blend..

[captainbarbossa19]

Wind shear in the Caribbean is forecasted to be low, and sea surface temperatures are more than enough to support a hurricane. What matters is the path Hurricane Elsa takes. If it goes over Hispaniola, the rough terrain should be enough to tear the storm apart. If it goes over Cuba, the rough terrain should be enough to weaken the storm significantly, but it will likely not dissipate over Cuba. If it dodges the islands, it would have no trouble intensifying into a major hurricane, possibly a Category V.

Don’t throw out Category 5. It won’t be one.

I hope Elsa does not think about copying Michael in 2018. If I remember correctly, the NHC originally called for Michael to peak as a TS. We all remember what happened.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF aiming for the Big Bend.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wonder why the nhc forecasts little change in intensity. Thoughts? Personally I disagree but they are the professionals.

Uncertainties associated with land interaction.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finding a more expansive and stronger southern Quad. Deepening continues.

[Hurrilurker]

What's the intensity record for first week of July?

[Jr0d]

I wonder why the nhc forecasts little change in intensity. Thoughts? Personally I disagree but they are the professionals.

They generally do not change the intensity forecast at an intermediate advisory. I do expect the 5pm update to be less 'conservative' as the threat is increasing.

[sweetpea]

HWRF aiming for the Big Bend.

Not too happy with what I am seeing, hopefully that won't be the case. Out of town until Monday night, but we prepped before we left. Hopefully it won't be too strong.

[InfernoFlameCat]

What's the intensity record for first week of July?

Whatever Dennis was probably.

[kevin]

What's the intensity record for first week of July?

Dennis, 100 kts and 957 mbar on the 7th of July (peaked on the 8th & 10th but that's both the 2nd week).

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/woodberrywx/status/1411024501404545030



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1411020896202989569



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1411021274441158662

[robbielyn]

HWRF aiming for the Big Bend.

same location as GFS only it’s at 1004 mb instead of 983 for hwrf.