ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa is seriously showing some rapid strengthening. More bands are spiraling in now as well. I wonder when an eye will start showing on satellite, maybe 12 hours?

[Hurricane Mike]

https://twitter.com/woodberrywx/status/1411024501404545030

That bursting last night is what did it. Created a tight inner core fast.

[InfernoFlameCat]

HWRF aiming for the Big Bend.

same location as GFS only it’s at 2004mb instead of 983 for hwrf.

Lets hope we don’t see a 2004 mb anticyclone. That would be like the Great Red Spot lol.

[Shell Mound]

Elsa is seriously showing some rapid strengthening. More bands are spiraling in now as well. I wonder when an eye will start showing on satellite, maybe 12 hours?

The fact that Elsa has managed to RI over the climatologically hostile southeastern Caribbean in early July should raise concerns about its intensity farther W.

[aspen]

FWIW, the 12z HWRF has gotten the 18z position correct: just under 14N, +/-0.1N. If Elsa is at 14.1N/14.2N at 21z, that would also be right in line with the HWRF, suggesting that its track could be legit.

[Hurricane Mike]

I feel bad for the NHC. They keep saying no change in strength and Elsa keeps ruining their forecast critiques.

[InfernoFlameCat]

HWRF shows landfall on Mexico Beach.

[StPeteMike]

Elsa is seriously showing some rapid strengthening. More bands are spiraling in now as well. I wonder when an eye will start showing on satellite, maybe 12 hours?

The fact that Elsa has managed to RI over the climatologically hostile southeastern Caribbean in early July should raise concerns about its intensity farther W.

And the HWRF track brings over pretty hot waters, on top of likely some slowing down in forward speed. I wouldn’t rule out major status with Elsa.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have heard that Surfside is preparing in the case Elsa hits South Florida; it's very scary to think that rescue operations may be hindered again if this were to happen.

[ColdMiser123]

 https://twitter.com/NewsFromTiffany/status/1411023690934984704

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/NewsFromTiffany/status/1411023690934984704

That looks quite intense for a low end Cat 1 hurricane, ngl

[ColdMiser123]

https://twitter.com/NewsFromTiffany/status/1411023690934984704

That looks quite intense for a low end Cat 1 hurricane, ngl

Cat 1 sustained winds with even stronger gusts is quite intense. Fully appreciated that when my hometown gusted to 60-65 mph during Isaias.

[Craters]

Looks like models are way off on this.
A recurring theme for the last few years.

CAPE is very high in the east Carib with a nice anchored UL High.

Starting to take a good, detailed look at this.
I expect more surprises down the road.

GCANE! Where've ya been? Good to see you back with your "future history today" observations...

[skyline385]

Looks like some dry air is hitting it from the NW, but there isnt much of it remaining on the water vapor loop

[tailgater]

Well I’m gonna try to bring a little sunshine to the room and gloom, the HWRF does keep it a rather smallish type storm when it gets in the GOM. Going to the models page to see where the stronger ensembles are sending it.

[Nimbus]

I feel bad for the NHC. They keep saying no change in strength and Elsa keeps ruining their forecast critiques.

Someone said they are expecting unfavorable conditions once it reaches the gulf, maybe that will be explained more in the 5PM advisory. If its following the periphery of high pressure ridging and there isn't much shear from an approaching trough what is going to keep the intensity down?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1411022364834471938



 https://twitter.com/AnthonyMweather/status/1411034033111420931



 https://twitter.com/TorenWX/status/1411032880151773184



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1411034611023421440

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the NHC will have to swing back to the left when they update the track at 5. Models showing a stronger ridge and more westward track now.

[AutoPenalti]

I feel bad for the NHC. They keep saying no change in strength and Elsa keeps ruining their forecast critiques.

Someone said they are expecting unfavorable conditions once it reaches the gulf, maybe that will be explained more in the 5PM advisory. If its following the periphery of high pressure ridging and there isn't much shear from an approaching trough what is going to keep the intensity down?

That was me, and yes, the NHC are forecasting "less favorable conditions" in the gulf.

[tolakram]

VDM in for the latest fix.