StPeteMike wrote:Shell Mound wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:Elsa is seriously showing some rapid strengthening. More bands are spiraling in now as well. I wonder when an eye will start showing on satellite, maybe 12 hours?
The fact that Elsa has managed to RI over the climatologically hostile southeastern Caribbean in early July should raise concerns about its intensity farther W.
And the HWRF track brings over pretty hot waters, on top of likely some slowing down in forward speed. I wouldn’t rule out major status with Elsa.
Tad early for a MH in the gulf this time of year albeit the water temps are high, 28C seems about the norm. That said, this has the look of a Charlie as it is projected to go a bit east of that track over Cuba now. Farther east the better for knocking it down as the western part of Cuba is not a barrier. The prediction for Charlie was a run into the Tampa area before it took a right turn and exited around Orman Beach instead. Small core but seemingly building up rapidly as smaller storms can do. Recent model soundings after Cuba show cross currents at various levels which IMO may be what the NHC is relying upon to keep the intensity in check, assuming they develop as projected.
The NHC track has this one projected to go over my home in NE Florida. We are to be away till Monday evening so I need going on getting the shutters set to place right now. Weve been luckly the past few years as all storms went east of us. This one looks to be going west of here, the final path unknown at this point along with the intensity.
Interesting start to a three day weekend and I hope no one in SWF is asleep at the switch on this one.
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