ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[kevin]

Is the next low-level recon expected for 15:30z or 17:30z?

Next one should depart at 1530z and should get a fix at 1800z so in about 7 hours.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 261534
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1135 AM EDT SUN 26 SEPTEMBER 2021
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2021
TCPOD NUMBER.....21-118

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE SAM
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
A. 27/1800Z A. 28/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0418A SAM B. NOAA9 0518A SAM
C. 27/1530Z C. 27/1730Z
D. 15.6N 53.0W D. NA
E. 17/1730Z TO 17/2100Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 28/0000Z A. 28/0600Z
B. NOAA2 0618A SAM B. AFXXX 0718A SAM
C. 27/2000Z C. 28/0330Z
D. 16.0N 53.5W D. 16.4N 54.0W
E. 27/2200Z TO 28/0200Z E. 28/0530Z TO 28/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FIVE FIVE - NOAA 43
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA3 0818A SAM
C. 28/0900Z
D. 16.8N 54.6W
E. 28/1030Z TO 28/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.
B. TWO MORE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO SAM,
DEPARTING TISX AT 28/2000Z AND 29/0800Z.

3. REMARK: THE NOAA 43 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION TASKED IN
TCPOD 21-117 WILL NOW DEPART AT 27/1200Z AND BE ON STATION
FROM 27/1400Z TO 27/1600Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[Extratropical94]

Is the next low-level recon expected for 15:30z or 17:30z?

Next one should depart at 1530z and should get a fix at 1800z so in about 7 hours.

This morning's mission was also shifted to 1200Z (see the remarks section of the TCPOD), so there should be a plane in the storm in about 3 hours.

[NDG]

What a difference 24 hrs make.
SHIPS model shows shear dropping down below 10 knots once again as the day goes on through the next 48 hrs., so it should once again pop an eye out later today.
BTW, 0z HWRF did a beautiful job in forecasting its bad satellite presentation during the night and this morning.

[aspen]

Now that it’s very likely Sam was a Cat 5 at some point between recon flights yesterday, the next question is: was it a Cat 5 simultaneously with Mindulle, even if it was very briefly? If so, this would be the first case of simultaneous Category 5 systems in two different basins since Kong-Rey and Walaka on October 1st/2nd 2018. This also ties into the question as to how long Sam was at 135-140 kt.

[aspen]

Poor Sam. Nobody gives him any attention as soon as he turns ugly. At least Sam’s EWRC went better than Mindulle’s — it’s still stuck with 2 or 3 distinct eyewalls and has upwelled itself to hell.

[cheezyWXguy]

Seems to be improving again. Eye becoming apparent in vis and ir satellite

[ChrisH-UK]

Look's like Sam is get his eye back.

GOES-16 Red Band + Clean IR

[wxman57]

Now that it’s very likely Sam was a Cat 5 at some point between recon flights yesterday, the next question is: was it a Cat 5 simultaneously with Mindulle, even if it was very briefly? If so, this would be the first case of simultaneous Category 5 systems in two different basins since Kong-Rey and Walaka on October 1st/2nd 2018. This also ties into the question as to how long Sam was at 135-140 kt.

Mindulle wasn't a Cat 5 yesterday. It weakened considerably overnight Saturday night.

[kevin]

Now that it’s very likely Sam was a Cat 5 at some point between recon flights yesterday, the next question is: was it a Cat 5 simultaneously with Mindulle, even if it was very briefly? If so, this would be the first case of simultaneous Category 5 systems in two different basins since Kong-Rey and Walaka on October 1st/2nd 2018. This also ties into the question as to how long Sam was at 135-140 kt.

Mindulle wasn't a Cat 5 yesterday. It weakened considerably overnight Saturday night.

Hey Wxman. I know it'll all be taken care off during post-season analysis, I was wondering what you think of Sam's peak yesterday. I personally thought it could've very well been 140 kt before recon arrives but I know I can be a bit overenthusiastic in that aspect. Do you think 140 kt could've been possible or is it very unlikely that Sam ever reached that intensity?

[Stormybajan]

I'm thinking the recon plane finds a 105 knot system this morning. Not convinced about the current cat 4 status

[Extratropical94]

I'm thinking the recon plane finds a 105 knot system this morning. Not convinced about the current cat 4 status

Best Track is down to 110/955 already, so right now we're back to a 3.

[Teban54]

Presentation improving quickly on IR. Hot towers reaching the south again, let's see if it wraps around.

[kevin]

Presentation improving quickly on IR. Hot towers reaching the south again, let's see if it wraps around.

Indeed, looks like it's trying to wrap around:

[kevin]

In case anyone else picked up on it, recon is in Sam right now. The difference in anticipation between this recon and the last one is like night and day . Anyways, first pass found 963.4 mbar pressure and 95 kt FL wind, 98 kt SFMR. Would most likely only support 963mb/90-95 kt, even though I can imagine that the NHC will take a blend with best track for now since Sam is already improving so perhaps 100 kt.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wouldn’t be surprised if sam gets back to cat4 later today. The cdo is pretty well centered within the overall envelope, as opposed to yesterday when all the banding was displaced to the NE. Shear seems to have backed off nicely.

[aspen]

Recon supports a 966mb low-end Cat 3. That’s a 40mb pressure increase in just 12 hours.

[kevin]

Recon supports a 966mb low-end Cat 3. That’s a 40mb pressure increase in just 12 hours.

I think the degradation was probably even more extreme. I guess this was a 970s high end cat 2 a few hours ago since it's already looking quite a bit better now compared to then.

[kevin]

Looks like the NHC is a bit more bullish than me right now, doesn't happen often . 110 kt, 966 mbar at the 11am update so a high-end cat 3.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1442501622442070019

[storminabox]

929mb —> 966mb in 16 hours! Some incredibly impressive rapid weakening!