ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

The center is becoming larger and better defined as well as more centralized in that convective mess surrounding it. Anticyclone above it is getting stronger.

[GCANE]

Looks like models are way off on this.
A recurring theme for the last few years.

CAPE is very high in the east Carib with a nice anchored UL High.

Starting to take a good, detailed look at this.
I expect more surprises down the road.

GCANE! Where've ya been? Good to see you back with your "future history today" observations...

Much thanks Craters. Hope all is well with you.

[SFLcane]

Eyewall expanding to 2 quads and becoming more distinct. probably just a temp pressure fluctuation from recon.

https://i.ibb.co/VgGxn6N/Capture.png

Or it's leveling off and maybe weakening a little because it's still moving at 30 mph haha.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like models are way off on this.
A recurring theme for the last few years.

CAPE is very high in the east Carib with a nice anchored UL High.

Starting to take a good, detailed look at this.
I expect more surprises down the road.

GCANE! Where've ya been? Good to see you back with your "future history today" observations...

Much thanks Craters. Hope all is well with you.

Also glad to see you around, I always learn so much about CAPE. Ready for your illustrations.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar blackout for the next several hours..

[aspen]

Eyewall expanding to 2 quads and becoming more distinct. probably just a temp pressure fluctuation from recon.

https://i.ibb.co/VgGxn6N/Capture.png

Or it's leveling off and maybe weakening a little because it's still moving at 30 mph haha.

Yeah the HWRF takes some time to truly get her going. It does seem that Elsa will slow down starting sometime tomorrow into early Sunday, which is when it starts intensifying more on the HWRF run. Slowing down from 30 mph to 20 mph would prevent the center from constantly trying to run away from its convection (it’s still on the western side of convection even now as a 75 kt hurricane) and allow for organization that leads to the symmetrical wind field also shown to develop this weekend.

In my unprofessional opinion, I think Elsa has a good shot of becoming a 90-100 kt (maybe stronger) hurricane IF and ONLY IF it takes a track between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba that avoids landfall until around 78-82W.

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/NewsFromTiffany/status/1411023690934984704

That looks quite intense for a low end Cat 1 hurricane, ngl

Cat 1 sustained winds with even stronger gusts is quite intense. Fully appreciated that when my hometown gusted to 60-65 mph during Isaias.

Thing is though, the MSW of a hurricane, even a major, typically aren't actually observed on land. I suppose Barbados, being a small island, could be an exception.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Beginnings of an eye on IR are showing. Convection wrapping around the center is apparent.

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

ADT

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2021 Time : 192020 UTC
Lat : 13:58:21 N Lon : 63:01:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 991.0mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

Center Temp : -72.2C Cloud Region Temp : -62.9C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think this is approaching Cat 2 right now. I believe another RI phase will begin tonight.

[tolakram]

I think this is approaching Cat 2 right now. I believe another RI phase will begin tonight.

Looks a little ragged at the moment, I'd say steady since last observation. Recon noted a pressure rise, though it's unclear if they got the lowest pressure.

SLIDER floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1262&y=1106&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Storms firing way out in front, but LLC is almost exposed.

629
URNT12 KWBC 021951
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 02/19:10:26Z
B. 13.99 deg N 062.97 deg W
C. 700 MB 3061 m
D. 998 mb
E. 175 deg 46 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 73 kt
I. 096 deg 22 nm 19:05:09Z
J. 160 deg 66 kt
K. 096 deg 21 nm 19:05:21Z
L. 43 kt
M. 270 deg 36 nm 19:18:23Z
N. 068 deg 38 kt
O. 270 deg 52 nm 19:21:46Z
P. 9 C / 3070 m
Q. 13 C / 3067 m
R. 6 C / NA
S. 1345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 4 nm
U. NOAA2 0205A ELSA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 66 KT 095 / 22 NM 19:05:22Z
SEC MAX FL WIND 60 KT; BRNG:092 deg RNG:54 nm

[Sanibel]

Caribbean graveyard right on time...

[DestinHurricane]

Caribbean graveyard right on time...

no

[AveryTheComrade]

Caribbean graveyard right on time...

Is this a joke because it looks great to me

[NDG]

How’s that Graveyard working out for Elsa?
It is closed down for new bodies this year.

[eastcoastFL]

Caribbean graveyard right on time...

What does that mean?

[aspen]

I think this is approaching Cat 2 right now. I believe another RI phase will begin tonight.

Looks a little ragged at the moment, I'd say steady since last observation. Recon noted a pressure rise, though it's unclear if they got the lowest pressure.

SLIDER floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1262&y=1106&z=1&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

Storms firing way out in front, but LLC is almost exposed.

629
URNT12 KWBC 021951
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052021
A. 02/19:10:26Z
B. 13.99 deg N 062.97 deg W
C. 700 MB 3061 m
D. 998 mb
E. 175 deg 46 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 73 kt
I. 096 deg 22 nm 19:05:09Z
J. 160 deg 66 kt
K. 096 deg 21 nm 19:05:21Z
L. 43 kt
M. 270 deg 36 nm 19:18:23Z
N. 068 deg 38 kt
O. 270 deg 52 nm 19:21:46Z
P. 9 C / 3070 m
Q. 13 C / 3067 m
R. 6 C / NA
S. 1345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 4 nm
U. NOAA2 0205A ELSA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 66 KT 095 / 22 NM 19:05:22Z
SEC MAX FL WIND 60 KT; BRNG:092 deg RNG:54 nm

12z HWRF simulated IR shows a ragged appearance until tomorrow morning, as well as steady pressures until tomorrow too. Assuming the core doesn’t implode Delta-style, Elsa looks to be on track to follow the HWRF very closely.

[NDG]

Caribbean graveyard right on time...

Wishful thinking, unfortunately.

[eastcoastFL]

How’s that Graveyard working out for Elsa?
It is closed down for new bodies this year.

https://i.imgur.com/cmkE2vI.jpg

She looks fine. Shaking off going over the islands and a little dry air and getting ready to roar again as night falls.