ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Looks like Elsa is about to explode…

https://i.postimg.cc/RFp57TY4/ABC43958-74-C3-42-FD-958-D-8338-DDF78708.gif

Explode how?

[aspen]

Looks like Elsa is about to explode…

https://i.postimg.cc/RFp57TY4/ABC43958-74-C3-42-FD-958-D-8338-DDF78708.gif

The last frame is almost an hour old. The original “CDO” has continued to warm. It needs more hot towers before it can be considered “about to explode”.

[Jr0d]

18Z GFS has Elsa all over the place near Cuba, literally bounces off Jamaica lol

We have seen it countless times where storms 'navigate' around the GA mountains. Obviously the high mountains of Hispaniola and Western Cuba will shred a storm up, I can think of one storm that somehow defied physics and went through the terrain of PR, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba and still managed to be a hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys, Georges...however that was a huge storm which enabled it to survive. A compact circulation like Elsa has no chance of surviving the shredder.

A few nervous people down here in Key West, my self included but most people here are convinced Elsa will be shredded by Cuba and will not lose a significant threat to the Florida Straits.

[GCANE]

Feeder band showing signs of strengthening with the deeper convection.
Looks like she'll try and refire later

[InfernoFlameCat]

I believe the original core has disintegrated. It is building a new one now.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/m ... &length=15

[tolakram]

Looking very ragged again. Recon will be interesting.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Actually I take that back. The core fakout ahead of the system is nothing, you can see the towers around the actual center well to the east. I think.

[Category5Kaiju]

So would a weaker storm than anticipated be pulled more north or will it have more of a westerly component? I've personally been getting mixed signals, so any insight would be greatly appreciated.

[Nimbus]

Looks like a typical fast moving Caribbean tumbleweed, its when they slow down near Jamaica that you have to be concerned. Elsa is maintaining with the fast forward motion so 15 knots of shear might not shred her after she slows a little.

[StormPyrate]

Does anyone have a source for satellite imagery with the current NHC track as an overlay
Thanks

[AveryTheComrade]

18Z GFS seems to have greatly under-initialised, personally wanna see what the HWRF has to say

[tolakram]

Does anyone have a source for satellite imagery with the current NHC track as an overlay
Thanks

Go here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Click on Elsa and select the various options on that popup page.

[tolakram]

COD shortwave floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[AveryTheComrade]

Am I going crazy or does it look like Elsa is undergoing a center relocation

[InfernoFlameCat]

Am I going crazy or does it look like Elsa is undergoing a center relocation

I mentioned that. Yes most certainly is.

[StormPyrate]

Does anyone have a source for satellite imagery with the current NHC track as an overlay
Thanks

Go here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#

Click on Elsa and select the various options on that popup page.

Thank you

[StormPyrate]

Historically speaking how often does a tropical storm find its way just off the coast of Naples and not intensify

[aspen]

Am I going crazy or does it look like Elsa is undergoing a center relocation

I mentioned that. Yes most certainly is.

Oh fun, something else to further complicate an already complicated forecast.

If Elsa is indeed undergoing a center reformation, it might be several tenths of a degree of longitude further east, which would buy it more time over water. At least that’s where I think it could be reforming; that’s where most of the blossoming convection that could pull the center is.

[Sanibel]

Historically speaking how often does a tropical storm find its way just off the coast of Naples and not intensify

Fay 2008...Keith 1988...Gabrielle 2001...

[Dean4Storms]

Elsa looks like the she is either moving or re-locating further WSW than last location. Either that or the visible imagery is playing tricks on my eyes. But if you think about it, it makes sense as most of the moisture into the storm is from the South and SSE, kind of like a tug of war.

[AveryTheComrade]

Elsa looks like the she is either moving or re-locating further WSW than last location. Either that or the visible imagery is playing tricks on my eyes. But if you think about it, it makes sense as most of the moisture into the storm is from the South and SSE, kind of like a tug of war.

Looks to me like it relocated/is relocating several tens of miles due east