ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Convection this morning on the increase, don't like the trend with the track moving further south in most 06z guidance, not much more and it cruises south of the big islands.

[Chemmers]

Thunder storms are increasing and it looks like the dry air is subsiding

[Shell Mound]

Thunder storms are increasing and it looks like the dry air is subsiding

Based on satellite and Barbadian radar, the elongated “LLC” looks to be heading just north of due west, toward the northern tip of Barbados.

[Nimbus]

Convection this morning on the increase, don't like the trend with the track moving further south in most 06z guidance, not much more and it cruises south of the big islands.

94L has been lassoed to the ITCZ without closing off and ingesting dry air so it is not going away.
Pic Macaya saved Florida from Elsa but tracks south of there could be devastating somewhere along the gulf coast. Still high uncertainty for even the short term forecast "Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico." South shore of Puerto Rico could still see TS winds even with a track further south.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GEFS ensemble mean takes it towards the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, takes it just north of the Greater Antilles, and takes it to Florida.

[Stormybajan]

Looks better this morning, convection increasing too I think this should be 70-70 at 8! Have to see if it can sustain this or even increase activity now

[NDG]

One thing for sure 94L hasn't gained the latitude that models were forecasting yesterday, hard to really tell where the low level vorticity is this morning but first signs this morning is that is much closer to the mid level vorticity which is E of Barbados if not ESE.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Definitely looks to be coming together this morning. Some dry air to its North but looks to be in a protected pouch for the time being. Shear low in its current location.

[GCANE]

Looks like LL vort has consolidated.
Could haves some west winds. Seems to be showing up on ASCAT.
Vis sat will tell alot when it comes up.

[Blown Away]

Invest 94L
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 09, 2021:

Location: 12.8°N 56.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

Probably not a well defined LLC and likely a tilted broad circulation. This morning the strongest pulse appears @13.5N/56.5W. Maybe slowing or just reorganizing a little NE.

[xironman]

Mid level near Barbados

[aspen]

Looks quite decent right now, and an improvement from yesterday. The NHC might have to initiate PTC advisories at 11 since this is so close to impacting land and could be a TS when it does.

[NDG]

It will be interesting where they place Best Track position at 12z, I am thinking near 13N & 57.5W but it could be a little further south closer to the MLC, hard to tell so far.

[InfernoFlameCat]

We got a cherry. Wow it’s looking good

[InfernoFlameCat]

70/70

[AlphaToOmega]

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning
in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles
east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola
around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in
those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 06L?

[Stormybajan]

It will be interesting where they place Best Track position at 12z, I am thinking near 13N & 57.5W but it could be a little further south closer to the MLC, hard to tell so far.

https://i.imgur.com/AMnmd9w.gif

Hmm looks to be right on the same latitude as us (Barbados) outside is very dark in the south of the islands and cloud cover is still building with 94L, I expect by 11 it will most likely be PTC with 30 mph. Just happy with the overcast skies tbh

[NDG]

On vis satellite loop I estimate the CoC a little further south, might still be a bit S-N elongated.

[NDG]

11:30z best track estimate by satellite has it a little further west than what I am estimating it to be.

TXNT21 KNES 091157
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94L)

B. 09/1130Z

C. 13.0N

D. 57.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING AROUND LLCC YIELDS DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT
AGREE AND FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/1007Z 13.0N 57.5W SSMIS


...MLEVINE

[InfernoFlameCat]

Very healthy system right now. All that convection bubbling around it is really pulling this guy together. It is rapidly developing.