ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

That said, THE NHC may declared Fred an open wave soon...that does not mean Fred is dead(without a chance of reviving) yet, just reforming further south which maybe verified when the HH gets there.

In my opinion Fred has been dead for the past 36 hours, but may be revived with a center relocation south of Cuba...

Too much convection for it to be dead, but it looks like we have two possible redeveloping centers… one on the northern coast of Cuba and the other south of Cuba in the convection blob… If it is north of Cuba then the current forecast would make sense with a landfall in the AL/FL gulf coast… if it’s the southern blob it’s a whole different ballgame… the mass south of Cuba has been quite active throughout the night and early morning, regardless, going to be interesting today…

[Jr0d]

That said, THE NHC may declared Fred an open wave soon...that does not mean Fred is dead(without a chance of reviving) yet, just reforming further south which maybe verified when the HH gets there.

In my opinion Fred has been dead for the past 36 hours, but may be revived with a center relocation south of Cuba...

Too much convection for it to be dead, but it looks like we have two possible redeveloping centers… one on the northern coast of Cuba and the other south of Cuba in the convection blob… If it is north of Cuba then the current forecast would make sense with a landfall in the AL/FL gulf coast… if it’s the southern blob it’s a whole different ballgame… the mass south of Cuba has been quite active throughout the night and early morning, regardless, going to be interesting today…

Fred has been dead in the sense that there has been no defined center for the past 36 hours.

Today it should revive itself, we will see if the area south of Cuba has become the new center or if the NHC's 'continuity' fixes are where the low is.

HH is en route.

[xironman]

Looks like the plane is going to skip the southern system. Don't think they would have time being an AF plane. It is hard not to look south though

[NDG]

Based on surface observations Fred is an open wave this morning, IMO. Lets see what comes out of this, the system now has a good 60 hrs to try to re-organize if it gets a break in the shear after the current ULL over the NE GOM pulls north and dies out tomorrow while a new one forms but farther away in the western GOM.

[aspen]

Based on surface observations Fred is an open wave this morning, IMO. Lets see what comes out of this, the system now has a good 60 hrs to try to re-organize if it gets a break in the shear after the current ULL over the NE GOM pulls north and dies out tomorrow while a new one forms but farther away in the western GOM.

I’d say the odds are somewhat in Fred’s favor. It certainly has the model support — all of the recent GFS, Euro, CMC, ICON, HWRF, and HMON runs show at least some recovery in the Gulf of Mexico before landfall on Monday night/early Tuesday. Some get it back to TS intensity within 30-36 hours. It would be very odd for nothing else to come out of Fred despite unanimous model support for at least some re-intensification.

[wxman57]

Yes, Fred lost its circulation yesterday. It's a wave that the NHC cannot downgrade, as it would cause too much public confusion to call it "post-tropical" but then issue PTC Fred advisories for when the center re-forms. Models indicate quite a bit of shear and dry air as the center nears the FL Panhandle. It will weaken quickly at landfall. No TS wind penetration inland. Very little wind west of the track. Only a rain event for FL Panhandle and southern AL/GA, and the dry air intrusion may limit rainfall.

[xironman]

SSW wind at Owen Roberts airport. Stupid radar is down.

[AlphaToOmega]

Yes, Fred lost its circulation yesterday. It's a wave that the NHC cannot downgrade, as it would cause too much public confusion to call it "post-tropical" but then issue PTC Fred advisories for when the center re-forms. Models indicate quite a bit of shear and dry air as the center nears the FL Panhandle. It will weaken quickly at landfall. No TS wind penetration inland. Very little wind west of the track. Only a rain event for FL Panhandle and southern AL/GA, and the dry air intrusion may limit rainfall.

There is a loop current in the Gulf of Mexico that might allow Fred to intensify further.

[Frank P]

Early vis sat loop… hard not to notice the convection south of Cuba in the grand scheme of things…

[Stormcenter]

I would say the majority of people would think that was Fred south of Cuba.

Early vis sat loop… hard not to notice the convection south of Cuba in the grand scheme of things…

https://i.ibb.co/hmRP7h3/53-ABA467-AB5-A-4762-A4-FD-CA72-BD1-DDF5-B.jpg

[Cat5James]

Early vis sat loop… hard not to notice the convection south of Cuba in the grand scheme of things…

https://i.ibb.co/hmRP7h3/53-ABA467-AB5-A-4762-A4-FD-CA72-BD1-DDF5-B.jpg

That is where the MLC is located… wouldn’t be surprised if a new LLC is forming (or has formed) there as well.

[xironman]

I would say the majority of people would think that was Fred south of Cuba.

Early vis sat loop… hard not to notice the convection south of Cuba in the grand scheme of things…

https://i.ibb.co/hmRP7h3/53-ABA467-AB5-A-4762-A4-FD-CA72-BD1-DDF5-B.jpg

Follow the convergence?

[Frank P]

Early vis sat loop… hard not to notice the convection south of Cuba in the grand scheme of things…

https://i.ibb.co/hmRP7h3/53-ABA467-AB5-A-4762-A4-FD-CA72-BD1-DDF5-B.jpg

That is where the MLC is located… wouldn’t be surprised if a new LLC is forming (or has formed) there as well.

The more I watch this on the long loop vis sat images the more it looks like is sure is trying to for a LLC… I can’t find anything north of Cuba that slightly resembles an LLC… would love to have RECON in that blob now… and maybe it’s all an illusion but sure hints of both an inflow and outflow

[NDG]

First HD satellite loop clearly shows the original surface vorticity/trough to the NW of Havana this morning continuing moving west, but there's quite a bit of vortcity at H70 to the SE with some increasing signs of some organization in this area at the surface. What I think has favored this area with continuing convection is that it is over is being fed by some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Well I mean there is no llc right now so no Fred at the time.

[xironman]

Cayman Brac also vacillating between SE and SW https://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/cuba ... ?icao=MWCB

[xironman]

Well I mean there is no llc right now so no Fred at the time.

I don't think we have the data to say there is no llc right now. With recon trapped north of Cuba, it is down to waiting for the next ASCAT.

[NDG]

Well I mean there is no llc right now so no Fred at the time.

I don't think we have the data to say there is no llc right now. With recon trapped north of Cuba, it is down to waiting for the next ASCAT.

Based on HD vis satellite loop there is no indication of an LLC south of Cuba near that convection, a lot of vorticity above the surface but no LLC, at least not yet.

[Cat5James]

Well I mean there is no llc right now so no Fred at the time.

I don't think we have the data to say there is no llc right now. With recon trapped north of Cuba, it is down to waiting for the next ASCAT.

Based on HD vis satellite loop there is no indication of an LLC south of Cuba near that convection, a lot of vorticity above the surface but no LLC, at least not yet.

If one does form, Fred will not go as far west as currently projected... models show the ridge backing eastward this evening

[ronjon]

Think there are early signs of a new vorticity forming off the SW coast of Florida. As the day wears on, I would keep an eye in this area for low pressure development. 06z GFS showed this on its run.