ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like we are about to start another EWRC

[cheezyWXguy]

Does Sam look like an Annular Hurricane on Satellite?

Banding is way too prominent for now

[Teban54]

Is that an outflow channel developing to the south?

[cycloneye]

185330 1803N 05437W 6969 02951 9875 +058 +003 123108 112 093 028 00
185400 1801N 05438W 6958 02936 9842 +059 +003 122117 120 101 045 00
185430 1800N 05439W 6967 02903 9795 +073 +005 132118 119 106 032 00
185500 1759N 05440W 6953 02884 9733 +095 +008 132120 121 114 015 00
185530 1758N 05441W 6973 02827 9681 +113 +011 137106 117 120 007 00

[kevin]

New pass is 947.0 mb, but with 22.4 kt Est. Sfc. Wind so probably closer to something like 945 mb.

Edit: eye dropsonde is 949 mb with 19 kt so that one would result in 947 mb.

[sikkar]

Newest MW show significant eye wall erosion. Shear, dry air, cooling SST's ???

[aspen]

Looks to be approximately 120kt/947mb. Peak SFMR from the last center fix was not flagged this time. Also, it seems that Sam’s outflow is improving, but it’ll need to fix its core in order to take advantage of the favorable environment that remains. OHC is on the rise for the next 24-36 hours as shear remains low.

[kevin]

Impressive gravity waves seem to indicate that Sam is starting to get its act together. Still a mess in terms of its eye, but I think we've seen Sam at his worst now (at least for the next ~72 hours). Let's see how strong it can get before SSTs get too cold later this week.

[grapealcoholic]

Sam will be over warm waters for the next 96 hours. It's best chance to make another crack at Cat 5 will be tomorrow night

[Teban54]

NHC's take, seems like outflow is not a significant factor:

Upper-level outflow remains well
defined except over the southwest quadrant of the circulation, and
several arc clouds are seen emanating from the system over the
western semicircle, indicative of some dry mid-level air in the
environment. However, this dry air is apparently not significantly
affecting the inner core of Sam, given that it has remained a
powerful hurricane.

Max winds 115 kts, which is reasonable as SFMR was the only thing that supported 120.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Sam has pushed ACE over 100 for the season, and is poised to push past the avg season ACE of 106 in the next day or two

[Sciencerocks]

Sam has pushed ACE over 100 for the season, and is poised to push past the avg season ACE of 106 in the next day or two

Just goes to show just how many short lived systems this season has had. 1995 and 2004 had over twice as much ace and that is because of quality.

[Zonacane]

Sam has pushed ACE over 100 for the season, and is poised to push past the avg season ACE of 106 in the next day or two

Just goes to show just how many short lived systems this season has had. 1995 and 2004 had over twice as much ace and that is because of quality.

We still have all of October and November.

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

Eye trying to clear out again and it looks so much better now than the last 24 hours...

[Fancy1001]

Sam finally looks like it’s getting it’s act back together, and I’m guessing we won’t have any planes going in till tomorrow.

[skyline385]

Dry air to the west seems to be killing off some of the western quad

[kevin]

Sam finally looks like it’s getting it’s act back together, and I’m guessing we won’t have any planes going in till tomorrow.

Haha. I thought NOAA2 was supposed to take off 2 hours ago based on the plan of the day, but nothing on the recon page so far. Next one should (an AF plane) should depart in a little over 5 hours and should reach Sam in ~8 hours. I guess it's gonna be 1 fix every 12 hours from now on.

[aspen]

Sam finally looks like it’s getting it’s act back together, and I’m guessing we won’t have any planes going in till tomorrow.

Haha. I thought NOAA2 was supposed to take off 2 hours ago based on the plan of the day, but nothing on the recon page so far. Next one should (an AF plane) should depart in a little over 5 hours and should reach Sam in ~8 hours. I guess it's gonna be 1 fix every 12 hours from now on.

Hopefully that won’t be too long of a gap that Sam’s second peak would be missed, and I really hope they don’t cancel a flight and leave a 24+ hour gap with zero recon coverage. We don’t need another 130-140 kt peak missed.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1442997868390985729