ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

[Dean4Storms]

If you watch the evolution of the 06z GFS and ECM they both rotate the 850mb vorticity currently over the eastern half of Cuba northwestward around the overall broad gyre, very similar to what we see with the CAG and that vorticity slowly develops. That looks feasible with the sensible weather we’re seeing and how we’ve seen this gyre type spin off many time before with the CAG.

[xironman]

Well I mean there is no llc right now so no Fred at the time.

I don't think we have the data to say there is no llc right now. With recon trapped north of Cuba, it is down to waiting for the next ASCAT.

Based on HD vis satellite loop there is no indication of an LLC south of Cuba near that convection, a lot of vorticity above the surface but no LLC, at least not yet.

The ascat hinted at it. The area is overcast, so hard to do a visual. Surface winds are suggestive. I can also see low level clouds headed east south of the Island of Youth.

[tolakram]

Wider view. Maybe one can see where Fred might show back up. Maybe.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Jr0d]

Looks like the plane is going to skip the southern system. Don't think they would have time being an AF plane. It is hard not to look south though

https://i.imgur.com/yRkDAfq.jpg

I thought weather recon got an exemption from the no-gly rules over Cuba. Someone mentioned NOAA can fly over the island because it is technically not military but the Air Force cannot, not sure though.

It is as if they did not want want to find data to move the center south and east because it will.mess up that 'continuity'' angle the NHC seems to be going for.

Hopefully NOAA will be out there today and give us some more data from the convection south of Cuba.

[BobHarlem]

Tampa Radar is down right now, hopefully that gets fixed before Fred wanders over, not that it would be particularly close to the radar, but it's better than Melbourne that far out.

[MGC]

11AM advisory should stick a fork in Fred. Might regenerate but there is no TC there......MGC

[TallyTracker]

Fred looks trashed this morning. IMHO, I don’t think this should be classified at all. Maybe a PTC, but I’m skeptical about even that now seeing the satellite imagery!

[nativefloridian]

The way things are going, it wouldn't surprise me to see a discombobulated Fred, or his remnants, ending up in Texas

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Jr0d]

11AM advisory should stick a fork in Fred. Might regenerate but there is no TC there......MGC

Wxman57 explained it would be to confusing to downgrade to PTC only to upgrade Fred later when it's predicted to regain a center.

In my amateur opinion, Fred has not been a cyclone for a good 36 hours.

[Jr0d]

Cuban radar is hinting at a vortex just offshore, south of the Cienfuegos area, about to.make landfall. I'm looking for local.observstions to check for a pressure fall.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[beachnut]

Tampa Radar is down right now, hopefully that gets fixed before Fred wanders over, not that it would be particularly close to the radar, but it's better than Melbourne that far out.

I almost never use the Tampa radar, but instead our local NBC doppler https://nbc-2.com/weather/radar/

Set the layer to hi-res radar

[Sanibel]

Torrential rain flooding Sanibel Island...Thunder!

[Iceresistance]

11AM advisory should stick a fork in Fred. Might regenerate but there is no TC there......MGC

Yep, You called it

...FRED DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE... ...FORECAST TO RE-DEVELOP ON SUNDAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Location: 23.3°N 83.2°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[CronkPSU]

11AM advisory should stick a fork in Fred. Might regenerate but there is no TC there......MGC

And that is exactly what they did

[aspen]

Fred is officially dead per the NHC, at least for the time being. They forecast re-development in the Gulf like every model currently indicates.

[Jr0d]

Finally downgraded!

Maybe late tonight or tomorrow it will reform. A lot of hype on TWC for such a puny system.

[wwizard]

11AM advisory should stick a fork in Fred. Might regenerate but there is no TC there......MGC

Wxman57 explained it would be to confusing to downgrade to PTC only to upgrade Fred later when it's predicted to regain a center.

In my amateur opinion, Fred has not been a cyclone for a good 36 hours.

That's why there's TV weather guys going 24/7 to explain that stuff. I think it does more harm to the public to classify as something it isn't, it being somewhat of a dud, and people not trusting what they say about the next system that comes long being classified the same, actually being that, and packing more punch.

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

Fred is now a remnant low, but it could still reform over the Gulf of Mexico.