ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[typhoonty]

The NOAA plane has shown Ida has begun to deepen again after briefly weakening for an hour of two after Cuba. There is really nothing to stop it at this point from RI until the northern edge of the loop current except internal structure changes which are nigh impossible to model past 12 hours out. I am hopeful that there is just enough shelf to weaken Ida below peak by maybe half a category on approach to landfall. However, it's doubtful that Ida will fill as much as Katrina did on approach. My best guess 927 mb / 165 mph peak and 938 mb / 155 mph at landfall.

If I was anywhere near of south of I-10 east of Baton Rouge in Louisiana and had the means I would already be out of town. Charley allured me into meteorology and my major, but the 2 weeks without power/AC and 105-110 heat indexes is not something I would wish on anyone. Doubly so because if you get injured by anything during the storm, wait times to receive medical attention will likely be excessive due to the existing strain on medical infrastructure.

[PavelGaborik]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1431454835946266627

Probably just caving to the GFS like the Euro did earlier.

[Shawee]

[/Disclaimer]

How can I go to bed with all these developments.

Btw it's 5 AM here

But a good way to end a rough day.

[grapealcoholic]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1431454835946266627

Probably just caving to the GFS like the Euro did earlier.

Agreed. New GFS become the best model I think

[SconnieCane]

How can I go to bed with all these developments.

Btw it's 5 AM here

All of the -removed- going on here lately here isn’t helping either.

Some of us are just plain weather geeks and are here to see Ma Nature put on a show. It doesn't mean we're wishing death and destruction on you personally. These storms are going to do what they do and we can't control it one way or the other. If you're in the threatened area, all you can do is heed the warnings and prepare as best you can.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection is returning and wrapping!
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[Hurricane Mike]

New Video Update on Ida
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPu7UHwCjs4

[Clearcloudz]

Wow

[wx98]

This is just my opinion, but my gut for the last several hours has told me landfall at Lafourche Parish, between Plaquemines and Terrebonne (Houma).

[IcyTundra]

I am at a total loss for words...clearly flashbacks to summer(August) of 2005, in context of course, with obvious differences in 2021.
I fear the rest of the hurricane season '21.......

Yeah Ida certainly won't be the last one we have to deal with this season as August isn't even over yet.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop good for about 990mb

[Stormgodess]

That’s terrible. So you weren’t able to leave? I’m just gobsmacked!

Not me personally. I saw this coming days ago. We filled up yesterday. But people have been desperately trying to find stations that have gas through face book all afternoon

Glad you’re out! I’ve never understood how folks could be so unprepared during hurricane season while living along the coast. Especially as we’re moving toward the heart of it. I wish you all the best. It is shaping up to be something else.

Im not out though. We have vehicles gassed but really nowhere to go, it took a bit too long to convince some family that we needed to leave. Anything we could have afforded is long gone booked up now . So we are going to my mother in laws home in Hammond, its a 50's style brick ranch. And simply praying for the best.

[Shawee]

How can I go to bed with all these developments.

Btw it's 5 AM here

All of the -removed- going on here lately here isn’t helping either.

Some of us are just plain weather geeks and are here to see Ma Nature put on a show. It doesn't mean we're wishing death and destruction on you personally. These storms are going to do what they do and we can't control it one way or the other. If you're in the threatened area, all you can do is heed the warnings and prepare as best you can.

Totally understand and sincerely appreciate all the studied and researched opinions expressed by everyone trying to learn together. Sorry for the broad brush when a pencil would do.

[La Sirena]

Not me personally. I saw this coming days ago. We filled up yesterday. But people have been desperately trying to find stations that have gas through face book all afternoon

Glad you’re out! I’ve never understood how folks could be so unprepared during hurricane season while living along the coast. Especially as we’re moving toward the heart of it. I wish you all the best. It is shaping up to be something else.

Im not out though. We have vehicles gassed but really nowhere to go, it took a bit too long to convince some family that we needed to leave. Anything we could have afforded is long gone booked up now . So we are going to my mother in laws home in Hammond, its a 50's style brick ranch. And simply praying for the best.

Well, you’ve done the best you can. Sometimes it all works out for the best. You did what you could to get everyone on board and that’s difficult.

[PTPatrick]

Not me personally. I saw this coming days ago. We filled up yesterday. But people have been desperately trying to find stations that have gas through face book all afternoon

Glad you’re out! I’ve never understood how folks could be so unprepared during hurricane season while living along the coast. Especially as we’re moving toward the heart of it. I wish you all the best. It is shaping up to be something else.

Im not out though. We have vehicles gassed but really nowhere to go, it took a bit too long to convince some family that we needed to leave. Anything we could have afforded is long gone booked up now . So we are going to my mother in laws home in Hammond, its a 50's style brick ranch. And simply praying for the best.

Good luck. Sometimes a well built home on high ground is about the best you can hope for. We generally always road storms out at schools or family nearby but stuck close to home. Power outage is no fun and as scary as it was at times, they are some of my fondest memories. Times have changed and I think more people leave, which is smart in some ways, but there’s part of me that thinks it’s best to leave the roads to folks running from the coast, water, or unsafe structures.

[psyclone]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1431454835946266627

Will be interesting to see the models tomorrow to see if the models are shifting East or they will shift back a little each way up until landfall. As of right now I'm breathing a lot better than I was this morning. Even though that Spaghetti Model from the 1800Z tonight has me a little worried, but going by the NHC cone, I'm barely in it now.

You should be using wind probability, surge and rainfall estimates to assess your risk. Being in or out of the cone doesn't denote risk. as the storm draws closer the cone will narrow...but the extent of the weather hazards won't. the net effect here is there will be an increasing area in a hurricane and or storm surge warning outside of the cone. good luck to you and everyone else up that way.

[weatherdude1108]

Wow
https://i.imgur.com/PK71sTU.jpg

That has a Camille symmetry to it.

[ElectricStorm]

Big new tower on the NW side of the center. Looks like recon's going towards it. Also looks to be beginning to wall off the dry air.

[skyline385]

0Z GFS IR seems to suggest an EWRC before landfall, look at the size of the system

[KBBOCA]

I'm not on Storm2K much anymore. I no longer have a home in FL My US residence for the last 10 years has been in Charlotte, NC, so I don't obsess over hurricanes as much and only pop in here occasionally. But I have such vivid memories still of going through Katrina with folks on this board and being so concerned for all in SE Louisiana and also the Mississippi Gulf Coast and waiting for folks to check in after the storm, and following stories as folks rebuilt their lives after huge losses.

It's eerie to have Ida bearing down on the same area 16 years to the day that Katrina struck.

I won't be on here much tomorrow. I'm visiting some friends, so will be driving and offline much of the day. But for all who are in Ida's path, I'll be thinking of and praying for you. Praying all who need to find safer shelter will be able to do so, and that leaders will make wise decisions and that experts will be able to communicate effectively. My heart hurts at the crisis within a crisis, this storm coming on top of all the suffering and loss from Covid, and full hospitals. It's just dreadful. May you all find strength and people to stand with you and help you get through this time.

For all on the Gulf Coast tonight, try to get some sleep if you can. The rest will help you stay clear headed. Standing with you all from a far.