ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[kevin]

I think there may have actually been an eyewall meld in between 5z and ~10z, but I think it's completed now. This is probably the best Sam has looked in the last 24 hours, almost a fully closed and relatively thick Wring.

[aspen]

Only a single recon pass. That’s disappointing. Hopefully there’ll still be recon coverage for the next day or so.

Does anyone know if there will be another recon flight later today?

[kevin]

Raw T# shooting up to 6.0 now.

[ElectricStorm]

Improving rapidly now. Looks like it's about to try to make another run to T7.0

[Extratropical94]

Only a single recon pass. That’s disappointing. Hopefully there’ll still be recon coverage for the next day or so.

Does anyone know if there will be another recon flight later today?

They are going back in right now. Maybe they had some technical issues they were trying to fix by ascending, but a NW-SE pass is coming up shortly.

The next missions are scheduled to depart at 13z (9am EDT) and 20z (4pm EDT).

[aspen]

Pressure is slightly lower this pass, and the exact LLC is better aligned with the eye on visible imagery.

[tolakram]

visible floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Extratropical94]

BT still at category 4

AL, 18, 2021092912, , BEST, 0, 191N, 566W, 115, 952, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 100, 80, 90, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092912, , BEST, 0, 191N, 566W, 115, 952, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 50, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 18, 2021092912, , BEST, 0, 191N, 566W, 115, 952, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 30, 25, 30, 1012, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SAM, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[kevin]

Two options: 1) something went wrong with the GOES imaging or 2) someone is testing a new anti-hurricane device.

Edit: can be deleted, thought it was longwave instead of shortwave.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Two options: 1) something went wrong with the GOES imaging or 2) someone is testing a new anti-hurricane device.

https://imgur.com/kp3wReT

Oh thats the nighttime imagery. It does that.

[kevin]

Two options: 1) something went wrong with the GOES imaging or 2) someone is testing a new anti-hurricane device.

https://imgur.com/kp3wReT

Oh thats the nighttime imagery. It does that.

Yes I was about to delete my post, thought I was looking at longwave IR but it's shortwave. Would be pretty incredible if something like that ever happened on longwave .

[aspen]

There’s a clear double wind maxima on the east side, suggesting an EWRC or eyewall meld might be ongoing.

Edit: sure looks like one on microwave

[kevin]

There’s a clear double wind maxima on the east side, suggesting an EWRC or eyewall meld might be ongoing.

Edit: sure looks like one on microwave
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al18/amsusr89/2021al18_amsusr89_202109290956.gif

Agreed, this looks like another meld/EWRC but it's a different one than the one we had about 7-8 hours ago.

[aspen]

There’s a clear double wind maxima on the east side, suggesting an EWRC or eyewall meld might be ongoing.

Edit: sure looks like one on microwave
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al18/amsusr89/2021al18_amsusr89_202109290956.gif

Agreed, this looks like another meld/EWRC but it's a different one than the one we had about 7-8 hours ago.

The NHC forecast suggests conditions will be favorable for another 36-48 hours or so, meaning Sam will have plenty of time to finish up that meld and become a storm that can be more confidently called a Category 4. This recon flight supports 105-110kt, despite the pressure falling to 949mb.

According to CIMSS’s MPI graphic, Sam’s location through Friday morning can support a 915-925mb storm. SSTs begin to cool off later on Friday.

[kevin]

There’s a clear double wind maxima on the east side, suggesting an EWRC or eyewall meld might be ongoing.

Edit: sure looks like one on microwave
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2021al18/amsusr89/2021al18_amsusr89_202109290956.gif

Agreed, this looks like another meld/EWRC but it's a different one than the one we had about 7-8 hours ago.

The NHC forecast suggests conditions will be favorable for another 36-48 hours or so, meaning Sam will have plenty of time to finish up that meld and become a storm that can be more confidently called a Category 4. This recon flight supports 105-110kt, despite the pressure falling to 949mb.

According to CIMSS’s MPI graphic, Sam’s location through Friday morning can support a 915-925mb storm. SSTs begin to cool off later on Friday.

Yes true, even though I think its window for another T7.0/low-end cat 5 attempt is slowly closing now. It's theoretically still possible as you mention based on MPIs, but if I had to guess now I'd say it's not gonna happen anymore. Either way, it'll probably be one of the biggest ACE storms since 1851: entering the top 10 requires 50.9 ACE points and Sam is forecasted to reach 49.4 points in the next 120 hours so a top 10 position is possible.

[kevin]

That being said, Sam is improving again on dvorak (I know I sound like a broken record at this point) after another failure to maintain a consistent Wring this night/morning.

[AnnularCane]

Sam looking mean

https://i.imgur.com/eqaWkT0.png

Looks like he's got a little happy face.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Only a single recon pass. That’s disappointing. Hopefully there’ll still be recon coverage for the next day or so.

Does anyone know if there will be another recon flight later today?

They are going back in right now. Maybe they had some technical issues they were trying to fix by ascending, but a NW-SE pass is coming up shortly.

The next missions are scheduled to depart at 13z (9am EDT) and 20z (4pm EDT).

Actually, since this was a NOAA flight, it's possible that the rapid ascent/descent was done in order to explore the microphysics of the storm for research purposes. I think such reasoning was given for that otherwise-odd flight motion before on here. They've done this for a few storms before, maybe including Ida, but I'd have to double check on Ida specifically.

Thankfully, it's (usually) not a sign of a technical issue when you see a NOAA plane essentially corkscrew upwards and downwards.

[Extratropical94]

Only a single recon pass. That’s disappointing. Hopefully there’ll still be recon coverage for the next day or so.

Does anyone know if there will be another recon flight later today?

They are going back in right now. Maybe they had some technical issues they were trying to fix by ascending, but a NW-SE pass is coming up shortly.

The next missions are scheduled to depart at 13z (9am EDT) and 20z (4pm EDT).

Actually, since this was a NOAA flight, it's possible that the rapid ascent/descent was done in order to explore the microphysics of the storm for research purposes. I think such reasoning was given for that otherwise-odd flight motion before on here. They've done this for a few storms before, maybe including Ida, but I'd have to double check on Ida specifically.

Thankfully, it's (usually) not a sign of a technical issue when you see a NOAA plane essentially corkscrew upwards and downwards.

Good point. I originally thought it might have had something to do with the SFMR problems they encountered during the first pass.

[kevin]

The Wring is back people. Enjoy it while it lasts because the last 5 times or so that Sam made one it broke within the hour .