ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Recon finds winds have increased to 115 kts, for real now.

[aspen]

Maybe a Cat 5 is on the table then. The latest NHC advisory keeps its peak until late Thursday, so conditions look favorable for intensification for the next 30-36 hours. It won’t take any crazy deepening for Sam to get back into the 920s since it’s already at 942mb.

Off-topic, but I'm having a hard time getting used to your new avatar That will happen eventually, though.

Me too actually lol. I might change it back to IR Hagibis or another IR shot.

Back on topic: it definitely seems that the EWRC is done and the inner eyewall only exists in the upper levels, because no double-wind maxima was found. Only a tiny tiny peak inside the main peak was seen. Once that remnant of the old eye clears and Sam’s CDO improves, it could easily get back up to 130 kt, just like the HMON has been saying for days now.

[kevin]

Looks like Sam is gonna give it one last shot over the next ~24 hours. I think 130 kt is definitely possible. I'd put chances for a cat 5 low just because it's always difficult to get a cat 5, so think 10%-20%. But hey, never say never. Whatever happens to Sam it's definitely one of the most beautiful and exciting storms to track in a long time. I just like it when storms become OTS monsters so we don't have to worry about the horrible destruction and loss of life that unfortunately is caused by some of these monsters. This is a much more fun storm to track than f.e. Ida in my opinion where my meteorological side was in awe, but the rest of my mind was very sad about the inevitable destruction that Ida would cause. With some luck Sam won't ever make landfall so I'm all for him giving it his all one more time.

[Extratropical94]

134 kt FL in W eyewall, 117 kt SFMR in pretty heavy rain

[kevin]

944.4 mb and not yet at the center (69 kt SFMR, 63 kt FL). Sam is definitely deepening right now and the unflagged 134 kt FL measurement supports 120 kt using a standard 0.9 conversion factor.

[Yellow Evan]

[kevin]

Recon reached the center, 941.9 mb with 21 kt Est. Sfc. Wind so the pressure is roughly around 940 - 942 mb. The dropsonde also found 114 kt winds at the surface and 129 kt at 385 m.

[grapealcoholic]

Crazy storm. It wants Cat 5

[aspen]

W eyewall dropsonde has 117kt near the surface. SFMR and the 0.9 FL-to-surface conversion also support 115-120 kt. No double wind maxima despite going through the last traces of the inner eyewall.

[AlphaToOmega]

This is probably 120-125 knots based on the 134 FL reading (134*0.9 = 120.6). However, other quadrants might find stronger winds.

[grapealcoholic]

Wonder if that new eyewall on IR just contracts to the warm spot

[kevin]

Eye dropsonde confirms 942 mb (943 mb with 10 kt).

[tolakram]

[aspen]

NE to SW pass coming up. It’s possible recon could find Cat 5 FL winds — although this clearly is not a Cat 5 yet. Probably 125 kt max.

[grapealcoholic]

[Ubuntwo]

133kt FL and 121kt SFMR. Steadily strengthening for now.

[galaxy401]

Recon data supports a 120 kt intensity for Sam.

[cycloneye]

Extrapolated 943 mbs.

[NDG]

Amazing how Sam continues to be a solid Cat 4 MH.
Its ACE meter just keeps rolling without any breaks.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye has warmed significantly in the last few frames