ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

Now that it is weak it is the fast track to the shredder

[AveryTheComrade]

What happened here, why is everyone talking about it as if its dead now? Old LLC is way off to the north but its reforming under the circulation and is evidently not heading NW or NNW.

[aspen]

Wouldn’t be surprised if it opens up to a wave by tomorrow. Starting to remind me of Ericka.

But the HWRF has a monster approaching Cuba or at least it did...the HWRF doing the HWRF thing as usual

Yeah but its forecast for the next 12-24 hours after 12-18z 7/2 busted — a very short timeframe and one that it normally excels at, making this very unusual considering how the model did last year.

[Shell Mound]

Wouldn’t be surprised if it opens up to a wave by tomorrow. Starting to remind me of Ericka.

If it did, it would prove that this year is likely less conducive than 1933 and 2005. Those years featured hurricanes in the eastern Caribbean in late June and July that did not dissipate, but continued strengthening. Yet I would be surprised if Elsa were to dissipate after strengthening in the most climatologically hostile location. The exposed LLC has lacked convection for almost six consecutive hours, so I would expect it to weaken shortly. I would be flummoxed if it were somehow to maintain its distinctive vorticity over the next several hours while remaining devoid of convection. A reformation of the centre appears plausible, given that interaction with Hispaniola should reduce the background trade-flow, and thus allow a new centre to consolidate closer to or beneath the primary convection.

[Cat5James]

Euro had this as an open wave into the Caribbean. If the people of Barbados were depending on the Euro model they would have never known anything was even coming. Let’s not put Euro and Win in the same sentence when it comes to Elsa.

[cane5]

Has to be some weakness in the high pressure system to bring that further north into the Dominican. We saw this changing late into the night. But it might be temporary because longer range forecast keep west of South Florida. It did appear there was a strange ng traugh right above Florida through which might have effected it temporarily. I still think it’s too early since Elsa is a anomaly being that a July storm started closed to Africa.

[Michele B]

So at the 11pm advisory it seems that the closest point to South Fla is Key West but we are still in the cone which shows models are still showing some favor to Elsa making a turn more to the east so tommorrow might be the critical day to see where we stand.

I know I’m getting to this comment several hours late (gotta sleep sometime!), so my question imay have been discussed already but here it is: the NHC cone for FL had been quite consistent in track and intensity. How have they come to that definitive conclusion already?

I’ve watched quite a few of their update, and their prediction is that Elsa will be downgraded to TS status before raking across FL from Sw to NE

Are they that confident of that? To make such a bold claim, which we all know WILL cause many people to “let down their guard,” so to speak.

[aspen]

Wow this looks absolutely awful. Exposed LLC, a cloud/outflow boundary showing significant shear, and a center that is way too far north. It now looks like it’s going to crash into Hispaniola today and die. How did the HWRF get this so wrong in such a short time frame, under just one day?

[jlauderdal]

What happened here, why is everyone talking about it as if its dead now? Old LLC is way off to the north but its reforming under the circulation and is evidently not heading NW or NNW.

To be fair only a few are writing it off which is a mistake, it has hurdles particularly if it takes the easterly route over Cuba but anytime you have energy in the gulf in July you don't write it off, just let nature do its thing and watch sat and radar, the best track to watch as usual is nhc, models provide some insight but there is so much noise with them especially with this system they are really more entertaining than anything else.

A TS can be very formidable, Claudette killed 14 people in Alabama.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Elsa llc is trying its best to run away from the convection

[Shell Mound]

Euro had this as an open wave into the Caribbean. If the people of Barbados were depending on the Euro model they would have never known anything was even coming. Let’s not put Euro and Win in the same sentence when it comes to Elsa.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1410993656249597952



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1410994325794824197



 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1410996885519847426

[xironman]

What happened here, why is everyone talking about it as if its dead now? Old LLC is way off to the north but its reforming under the circulation and is evidently not heading NW or NNW.

To be fair only a few are writing it off which is a mistake, it has hurdles particularly if it takes the easterly route over Cuba but anytime you have energy in the gulf in July you don't write it off, just let nature do its thing and watch sat and radar, the best track to watch as usual is nhc, models provide some insight but there is so much noise with them especially with this system they are really more entertaining than anything else.

A TS can be very formidable, Claudette killed 14 people in Alabama.

In my defense a naked swirl on a collision course with Hispaniola isn't the most promising setup in the world.

[cane5]

The 8pm advisory should confirm if the track changes to a more northern one as the ridge weakens. We should also today know pretty much if and how it effects South Florida mainly because of Elsa the lady speed demon. As the storm gets closer to the cone becomes more reliable.

[AlphaToOmega]

What exactly happened to Hurricane Elsa? When I was asleep, it weakened by 7 millibars. Conditions seemed favorable: low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures.

[Shell Mound]

Wow this looks absolutely awful. Exposed LLC, a cloud/outflow boundary showing significant shear, and a center that is way too far north. It now looks like it’s going to crash into Hispaniola today and die. How did the HWRF get this so wrong in such a short time frame, under just one day?

HWRF does better than other models in forecasting RI under conducive conditions, but not as well when dealing with compact systems in marginal environments.
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411277053052305408

[jlauderdal]

What exactly happened to Hurricane Elsa? When I was asleep, it weakened by 7 millibars. Conditions seemed favorable: low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures.

Conditions weren't ever very good especially with it's forward speed, dont kill it off yet. It takes more than low wind shear and decent SST's.

[cane5]

If she avoids Haiti/Dominican and the cone were to stay the same whatever we get SFLA will be on the dirty side of the storm with a slightly northern turn.

[jlauderdal]

What happened here, why is everyone talking about it as if its dead now? Old LLC is way off to the north but its reforming under the circulation and is evidently not heading NW or NNW.

To be fair only a few are writing it off which is a mistake, it has hurdles particularly if it takes the easterly route over Cuba but anytime you have energy in the gulf in July you don't write it off, just let nature do its thing and watch sat and radar, the best track to watch as usual is nhc, models provide some insight but there is so much noise with them especially with this system they are really more entertaining than anything else.

A TS can be very formidable, Claudette killed 14 people in Alabama.

In my defense a naked swirl on a collision course with Hispaniola isn't the most promising setup in the world.

No defense needed, you aren't wrong in your analysis of the situation but the track isn't set in stone and a collision course with Hispanola is no guarantee of death especially at this speed.

[wxman57]

Looks more like a struggling TS than a strengthening hurricane (previous HWRF). Big outflow boundary, exposed center. Good news for Florida and the SE U.S. May be just a rain event. Crossing most of Cuba won't help its circulation.

Edit: I think I see the LLC on visible. 16.3N/69.7W. The outflow boundary from convection to the east is just reaching it.

[Shell Mound]

This is why the NHC is usually the best source in these kinds of situations.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411281426566221825