ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

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aspen
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1781 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:23 pm

128kt dropsonde, 133kt FL, and 122kt SFMR from this pass support a 120 kt Cat 4. If Sam’s structure continues to improve, the NHC might go with 125 kt instead.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1782 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:28 pm

This could end up being the peak pressure here, if not the peak winds. If the storm keeps strengthening of course.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1783 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:34 pm

InfernoFlameCat wrote:This could end up being the peak pressure here, if not the peak winds. If the storm keeps strengthening of course.

I think it will peak in around 12 hours
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1784 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:43 pm

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1443372190280429579


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1785 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Sep 29, 2021 7:49 pm

Outer bands are retracting and the cdo is becoming more symmetrical. We might see that transition to annular I was wondering about a day or two ago if this keeps up.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1786 Postby WiscoWx02 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:01 pm

Best track up to 120 kt now.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1787 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:08 pm

Real chance Sam might make another go at Cat 5 status tonight. Will be interesting to watch!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1788 Postby Owasso » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:12 pm

Image

Recon doesn't seem to be done with Sam yet. Fourth pass incoming.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1789 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:43 pm

The next set should have winds from the S eyewall and pressure from the eye itself.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1790 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:46 pm

IR presentation continues to improve
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1791 Postby Teban54 » Wed Sep 29, 2021 8:54 pm

Extrap pressure 939.9mb, S eyewall has FL winds 121 kts and SFMR 120 kts.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1792 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:01 pm

138kt flight level on the north side.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1793 Postby aspen » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:04 pm

If Sam’s current core and outflow structure remains, it’ll probably be back up to 130 kt by tomorrow morning at this rate. The 90% conversion factor already supports 125 kt, based on those 138 kt FL winds. I think some SFMR readings did get above 120 kt during a previous pass.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1794 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:16 pm

125 knots looks like a good estimate to me based on that pass.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1795 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:17 pm

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1443399349908566023


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1796 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:18 pm

 https://twitter.com/Astro_Megan/status/1443261779459678216


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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1797 Postby Owasso » Wed Sep 29, 2021 9:56 pm

Image

Next recon is already up.
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1798 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:13 pm

This is fantastic recon. Congrats to the NHC!
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1799 Postby zzh » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:14 pm

INIT 30/0300Z 20.6N 58.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 21.9N 59.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 24.1N 60.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.8N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 29.6N 61.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 02/1200Z 32.2N 60.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 34.3N 59.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 37.5N 54.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 42.0N 48.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
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Re: ATL: SAM - Hurricane - Discussion

#1800 Postby grapealcoholic » Wed Sep 29, 2021 10:24 pm

Trends looks good for it to get to Cat 5
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