ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

If it can manage to stay over water, conditions will be more favorable in about 6 hours...but clearly a sheared TS now.

The latest from the HWRF appears to shred it over Cuba, despite the bullish initialization.

[aspen]

This is without a doubt going to make landfall in Hispaniola later today.

[otowntiger]

Looks more like a struggling TS than a strengthening hurricane (previous HWRF). Big outflow boundary, exposed center. Good news for Florida and the SE U.S. May be just a rain event. Crossing most of Cuba won't help its circulation.

Edit: I think I see the LLC on visible. 16.3N/69.7W. The outflow boundary from convection to the east is just reaching it.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa5.JPG

Agreed- it’s in pretty bad shape now just wait til it hits the shredder, ie Cuban mountains. Tropical downpours seem the most likely affects in Florida.

[Michele B]

5 am advisory shows still a hurricane AND now forward speed of 31 mph?!?

What is going on with this mess. After all the discussion about the llc outrunning the mlc, I half expected the westernmost center (Original llc) to dissipate and the experts to call the mlc south and east of it the new “center,” which would have fixed her position further east,‘thereby making it appear she had slowed down.

None of that happened. In fact, it appears as tho the nhc has left everything status quo from yesterday.

[Weatherboy1]

Elsa is struggling now and definitely appears to have an exposed center. However, if you extrapolate the path of that center using its motion over the last few hours, you see it’s likely to only cross over the very narrow Tiburon peninsula in Haiti. Plus, it’s going to start slowing down in the next 24 hours, which would likely allow its circulations to re-stack. IOW, may be only a TS now … but see a pretty easy path to Cat 1 (or even possible Cat 2 status) before it reaches Cuba

[Jr0d]

There are towers now forming over the exposed LLC....a little too late. I expect the NHC to downgrade at the 8am...but will still probably be generous and call it a strong tropical storm.

[AveryTheComrade]

Convection finally blowing up over the LLC as recon is just getting there

[NDG]

Big bust by the HWRF from yesterday and I am having crow for breakfast this morning.

Is supposed to be so simple, I should had gone with the: when the Euro and GFS are so appart in intensity like they were a couple of days ago is better to go with a blend between the two, and that's exactly what they have come to.

[Cat5James]

HWRF still brings a formidable TS (low end C1)? Into southern most Fl on Tuesday. Not that we should have much faith in the model rn, but it is still too soon to be counting Elsa out. Whatever emerges north of Cuba is coming for us regardless.

[wxman57]

There are towers now forming over the exposed LLC....a little too late. I expect the NHC to downgrade at the 8am...but will still probably be generous and call it a strong tropical storm.

They should downgrade it, but they probably already have the intermediate advisory written, keeping it a hurricane until recon explores the heavier convection. Recon did find some 40-45 kt wind north of the center.

[AutoPenalti]

31mph... that has to be some record.

[robbielyn]

Big bust by the HWRF from yesterday and I am having crow for breakfast this morning.

Is supposed to be so simple, I should had gone with the: when the Euro and GFS are so appart in intensity like they were a couple of days ago is better to go with a blend between the two, and that's exactly what they have come to.

humble pie tastes better than crow i hear

[NDG]

Looks more like a struggling TS than a strengthening hurricane (previous HWRF). Big outflow boundary, exposed center. Good news for Florida and the SE U.S. May be just a rain event. Crossing most of Cuba won't help its circulation.

Edit: I think I see the LLC on visible. 16.3N/69.7W. The outflow boundary from convection to the east is just reaching it.

http://wxman57.com/images/Elsa5.JPG

That doesn't look like an outflow reaching the LLC to me, it is high cirrus clouds.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411266949397594112



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411269337235787780



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411275858975801347



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411277483387785218



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411279085930782722

[toad strangler]

Weaker cyclones don’t have as much to lose over mountains as well developed cyclones do. Once a well developed cyclone starts losing cyclonic momentum it’s really tough to reverses the unraveling. Weaker storms that are already unraveled aren’t fighting that negative momentum as much. So if dissipation does not happen by the time she pops out N of Cuba it would be easier for the already weak cyclone to strengthen if surrounding conditions allow.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Nice little burst of convection over the center.

[NDG]

COC and extrap pressure. So far the strongest winds it has found is 44 knots but on the NW quadrant, but I really doubt it will find 65 knot winds in the NE quadrant.
16.55N 70W

113600 1633N 07009W 6969 03158 9998 +136 +102 093014 019 030 000 00

[Nimbus]

Convection finally blowing up over the LLC as recon is just getting there

Looks like the small weaker core will miss Hispaniola but there will still be upslope rain causing flooding and on the north side of the system they will likely still find strong TS flight level winds.

[tolakram]

I don't see how this avoids Haiti unless it makes a west turn.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411266949397594112
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411269337235787780
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411275858975801347
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411277483387785218
https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411279085930782722

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411280584740065281



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411280819356942336



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411281215278174208



 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1411281582284025862



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1411282190533599232