ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cane5]

There was never too much talk about shear on m the forecasting I just think as noted by some here speak kills as they say. Motion Speed absolutely is not a dynamic for strengthening.

[GCANE]

Looks to be tightening up.
Convection closer to the LLC.

[wxman57]

Appears to be a poorly-organized 45 kt TS. NHC kept it a hurricane, as I thought they would, until recon finishes. Look for a downgrade on their next advisory. May exit Cuba as a depression Monday, if it can maintain its circulation.

[GCANE]

Anticyclone WSW of the LLC

[aspen]

Looks to be tightening up.
Convection closer to the LLC.

It won’t matter if it’s going to hit The Shredder within 12 hours. It seems to be WAY east of the original forecast track, heading for the Haiti/DR border.

[NDG]

Appears to be a poorly-organized 45 kt TS. NHC kept it a hurricane, as I thought they would, until recon finishes. Look for a downgrade on their next advisory. May exit Cuba as a depression Monday, if it can maintain its circulation.

If it tracks over the Sierra Maestra mountains of eastern Cuban from a SE direction it will definitely knock it down to just a depression after crossing it.

[Jr0d]

Anticyclone WSW of the LLC

https://i.imgur.com/D273GFw.gif

If it can stay over water, it will be in very favorable conditions and should slow down later today.

Not dead yet....but certainly struggling.

[cane5]

Just my opinion the word shredder is a tad bit overused and devalues the specific areas of influence to some really undefined scientific evaluation.

[NDG]

Nice converging winds, the reason why convection popped again just east of the LLC.

[Weatherboy1]

Anticyclone WSW of the LLC

https://i.imgur.com/D273GFw.gif

If it can stay over water, it will be in very favorable conditions and should slow down later today.

Not dead yet....but certainly struggling.

Again, on its current path/direction of motion Elsa looks like she will avoid almost all of Hispanola. Likely just cross the tip of the Tiburon peninsula. If that happens … as she starts to slow down … no reason she can’t restrengthen. After that, Cuba will be real issue. All in though as of NOW, think we probably only get some TS winds and rain here in eastern Palm Beach County

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1411074537936982016

[Vdogg]

What happened here, why is everyone talking about it as if its dead now? Old LLC is way off to the north but its reforming under the circulation and is evidently not heading NW or NNW.

They do this every year with every storm. The instant that there's 30 continuous seconds of weakening people declare it dead and sound the all clear. I don't understand why that is, but it gets annoying at times. Stick with the major Mets and the NHC. Don't take the dramatic prognostications as indicative of what is actually going to happen.

[AlphaToOmega]

Hurricane Elsa is weakening, but that does not mean Florida is entirely in the clear. Storms can ramp up their intensities in the Gulf of Mexico. This is what happened with Hurricanes Audrey (1957), Alex (2010), and Harvey (2017). Hurricane Elsa might be giving those in Florida another nasty surprise, but this is by no means the only possibility. However, it is something to think about.

[GCANE]

Not going to take much for her to miss Haiti all together.
Going to be under a nice anti-cyclone then.

[wx98]

I’m really not seeing a major hurricane out of this at all. Moving too fast and the phantom mid-level shear could strike at any time. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my shoe

So far my shoe remains uneaten

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wxman-
Any chance of Elsa letting go of the first outpacing llc and opting to reform a new one under the mlc to the SE?

[BYG Jacob]

I’m really not seeing a major hurricane out of this at all. Moving too fast and the phantom mid-level shear could strike at any time. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my shoe

So far my shoe remains uneaten

It hasn't reached the most favorable conditions yet, be weary.

[wxman57]

Looks like the plane found a small area of 60 mph wind ENE of the center. I predict NHC will drop winds to 55-60 kts in their next advisory. They'll go higher than recon found. Doesn't matter if the center crosses Haiti or not. There isn't much for the land to disrupt. Cuba will be its big challenge.

[wxman57]

I’m really not seeing a major hurricane out of this at all. Moving too fast and the phantom mid-level shear could strike at any time. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my shoe

So far my shoe remains uneaten

It hasn't reached the most favorable conditions yet, be weary.

I'm very weary, but I hope to get some sleep next weekend...

[Ian2401]

I’m really not seeing a major hurricane out of this at all. Moving too fast and the phantom mid-level shear could strike at any time. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my shoe

So far my shoe remains uneaten

It hasn't reached the most favorable conditions yet, be weary.

at this point it just doesent have the time, or climo on its side, even with the favorable conditions ahead. i see no scenario where this goes major